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Well as a southerner it's a pretty good update. Much better than most winter's. 

At least things are finally on the move so who knows what will happen. Southerly tracking lows /stalling fronts could bring all sorts of goodies. 

They are talking weeks away anyway. ?

 

 

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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52 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Don't Panic there has been a mistake correct version below.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan fo Wednesday 13Feb 2019

The period will start cold with High Pressure over Scandinavia Temperatures

By day will struggle to get above freezing with penetrating overnight frost

Disruptive snow will start to affect all Regions and some locations could

Be cut off by severe drifting thanks to the strong Easterly winds these conditions

Are expected until the end of the forecast period and may be beyond..

?

C.S

Quote

 

 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its flipped, not necessarily to a mild outlook - but to a more average one.

I thought it only updated once a month though?

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There's not much point in looking at the ECM, UKMO, GFS, GFSP, GEM, EPS Ens, GEFS, EC46, et al. if a paragraph of vague words with attendant uncertainty is all that's needed. 

It shouldn't be dismissed, but nor should it be considered the one true path to enlightenment. ?

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Really ?? You deduced that from this outlook ??

Er yes. They talk about fronts spreading South East, indicating the "weather" is coming from the North West or the polar maritime Atlantic, I doubt that direction deliver widespread cold and snow across the country.

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30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 0z questionable in the lower strat - see bluearmy's post in strat thread, its over for this next few weeks - its not over for the rest of winter but if we dont get a scandi high in early - mid feb then we are looking at last knock ins - i don't mind a belting in March but most people on here don't like those.

Only in its latest op run

The 46 was run on yesterday’s 00z 

fwiw, glosea is the best model re the strat but is it the best re lower strat ?? 

The reaction to that update is pretty over the top imo —- the ec46 looked a bit less deep on T2m cold weeks 3 and 4 but they are mean numbers and if anything, this brings the likelihood of big snow events more into play- I would rather see two or three of these over a two week period than two weeks of dry cold continental flow or sunny frosty conditions 

Note the phrase

Milder, wetter interludes are possible,

Hardly is ‘game over ‘ comment from Exeter. 

Everyone - hold your nerve .......

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1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So if this is correct looks like the much championed EC46 from last night is a bust. Great

Not necessarily, it's just that perhaps our interpretation was wrong. The anomalies may turn out to be just not anomalous enough that's all.

 

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People’s reading of these updates is bewildering. Absolutely nothing wrong with it, if you want cold and snow. It’s little change from previous updates, just more detail, and it does match the ECM seasonal model.

Absolutely stupid reaction to it from some in here.

Edited by MattStoke
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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Er yes. They talk about fronts spreading South East, indicating the "weather" is coming from the North West or the polar maritime Atlantic, I doubt that direction deliver widespread cold and snow across the country.

If you’re in the west then you may take an imby viewpoint on it .... fwiw, these 15 dayers generally only reference to day 10 unless they specifically talk about ‘late in the period’ 

to day ten, the general flow of fronts is north to south 

anyway - there seems to be a lot of ‘hysteria’ around these Exeter updates today so best to ‘retreat to higher ground’ 

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I think too much faith is given to LRF models . GLOSEA may be one of the best , however since October its flagged Feb 19 as having a strong HLB signal which it held onto throughout Nov , Dec and upto 2 weeks ago. Now 2 1/2 weeks to Feb it downgrades that signal , we just arent there regards how computers model chaos , My fear is that EC46 may be leading us up garden path as we know ECM tends to do over amplifaction 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Proper indication of the drained  Sister lobe being upon us in a cold air mass.

Could be fun and games Midlands north

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32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its flipped, not necessarily to a mild outlook - but to a more average one.

So you have links into Exeter? How do any of us know exactly what Exeter are using at any time to produce any forecast.

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52 minutes ago, Altostratus said:

Given the uncertainty, the MO are just covering all bases. They have always maintained that milder air may make inroads to parts of the south - usually indicative of waves of low pressure moving along the channel. This is a good thing if you want frontal snow... 

indeed! could give big snow amounts in places central belt at least

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4 minutes ago, sausage said:

well its typical really isnt it. when doea glosea ever work for us! theres just some snow shield over us. i was so excited last night. all drained away now.

I believe you are up north????

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Hanging on the slight wording differences from one update to the next isn't going to do anyone any good!
If you want to get upset and lament the lack of snow opportunities you've had, or ramp up the snow potential, the chat, moans banter and ramps thread is the one for you.

 

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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