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Meto Uk Further Outlook


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36 minutes ago, Don said:

Not looked at the models today but judging by some comments here would suggest they have not been great this morning?

Basically, they look less cold than yesterday with plenty of Atlantic driven weather. 

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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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59 minutes ago, karyo said:

Basically, they look less cold than yesterday with plenty of Atlantic driven weather. 

The saga continues.........

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UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast. Some light rain or sleet is possible in the southwest at first; then a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to spread across the northwest later, moving erratically southeast. Overnight frost and freezing fog patches are likely overnight into Monday. Cold weather is likely to continue through mid-week, remaining unsettled and at times windy with fronts spreading southeast across the UK bringing rain, sleet and snow. Snow is most likely over north and eastern areas and over high ground. Similar cold conditions are likely to remain in place until the end of the period, interspersed with brighter showery spells, although these could also be wintry. Overnight frosts will remain likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Cold but changeable conditions will be in place at the start of the extended outlook with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts are likely and snow, mainly over higher ground in the north, but with an increased risk to lower levels. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. Milder, wetter interludes are possible, most likely in the south but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Knew it once that damn glosea had backtracked - we need another SSW in mid feb now with a quick downwelling so we can have another crack late Feb / Early March.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME OVER!

 

 

It is not that bad. It goes for a wintry mix rather than snow nirvana which is realistic given the lack of deep cold in what the models are showing.

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Just now, karyo said:

It is not that bad. It goes for a wintry mix rather than snow nirvana which is realistic given the lack of deep cold in what the models are showing.

No Greenland block - still think an outside chance of Scandi block in Feb but it will need to start showing in next weeks modelling or the upper westerlies in the strat will downwell and tha twill be the end barring another strat split / warming.

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It’s why I literally for for years Have paid no attention to their long range forecasts. They change with the wind and are utterly pointless. Ok for the north but a shocking update for the south. 

Edited by Neiller22
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No Greenland block - still think an outside chance of Scandi block in Feb but it will need to start showing in next weeks modelling or the upper westerlies in the strat will downwell and tha twill be the end barring another strat split / warming.

It will be a hard kick where it hurts if the upper westerlies downwell quickly after the SSW taken forever to downwell. It is possible though.

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Just now, Neiller22 said:

It’s why I literally why for years I  pay no attention to their long range forecasts. They change with the wind and are utterly pointless. Ok for the north but a shocking update for the south. 

Agreed, any UK forecast greater than 3 days, I tend to ignore.

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Just now, karyo said:

It will be a hard kick where it hurts if the upper westerlies downwell quickly after the SSW taken forever to downwell. It is possible though.

they already are showing downwelling in the modelling but there is a missing blank still over scandi, could easily translate to a scandi block in the trop, problem is the canadian segment will still be strong so threrefore could just keep the cold air too far east.

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME OVER!

 

 

What a drama queen jesus. Still absolutely cracks me up how people take these updates like they are from the gods and they’ve already decided the weather, utter nonsense

Edited by Weathizard
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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GAME OVER!

 

 

It isn't game over mate, keep composed ?

You are in the north with decent altitude so you should do very well in a cold cyclonic set up..

They have mentioned disruptive snow possible which is an upgrade in one sense, lets see how the 12zs look and re assess tomorrow ..

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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

How is it game over 

Its not.  Its just the Met office havnt issued a forecast for siberian like conditions that will last till June.  

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

How is it game over 

Because that update is a huge downgrade from yesterday. That’s just normal winter fair. Possible rain, sleet snow mainly high ground but possible Low ground. Gone is cold or very cold weather expected along with enhanced risk of frost and snow. It’s miles different and a shocking update for the south. The north maybe a bit of snow but more so on hills. 

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

You can just tell by the modelling with that PV - it wont be shifted and will just mean mid latt highs - garbage slush fest 2 inches events don't float my boat.

100% agree. Why are people trying to sugar coat it. It’s a woeful update 

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