Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Some are writing as though they put whatever the meto say in their calendar ''cold due on 15th'' etc. People on here shouldn't even look at their forecast - we are all capable of looking at the charts which will keep you much better updated than their tradional script forecast, which is out of date 6 hours later! These are aimed at the less educated general public 

So my advise : if you follow the charts then ignore these script casts ! 

 

Ps for what it's worth I feel the whole SSW thing has been obsessively over done and we will have a relatively mild and dry winter, I'm not taking anything for granted! 

 

Nonsense!

[Matty88]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nonsense!

Point made! Let's all jump on the meto band wagon then and dust down the sledges ready for the end of the month 'as I read the meto predicted snow' - it's bound to happen then!!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

The second week of the the New Year starts mainly settled. Most places look to be dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. By the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions, particularly in the north. There may be periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods in between. There is a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. It will be rather cold to start, but temperatures will probably recover closer to average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with perhaps heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[MattStoke]

No change then.

I like that the outlook says ‘much colder’ rather than just ‘colder’.

[Penicuikblizzard]

3rd week now mentioned 

[Froze were the Days]

17 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

3rd week now mentioned 

After the 14th basically...so no change really.

[Catacol]

I don't often post in this thread, but feel the need now. Back on the 27th Dec the MetO text forecast flipped to this for week 2 of Jan

"The second week of January will probably become unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period."

Now as the ECM rolls out and finally the signals several of us have been banging on about since mid Dec (and before to be honest) you have to wonder a bit what goes on at Exeter. The models shifted to a more mobile forecast for week 2 Jan just after Xmas - and I remember putting together a fairly gloomy post about that end product putting all the teleconnective science out the window if it came true. And the Met duly changed their text. BUT the signals were still there....the op runs output was at odds with what was on the cards and a change was suspected/predicted in NWP output which has duly followed 5 days later. Block edging north.

I hope to goodness that Exeter don't simply stare at NWP output. The chief forecaster must surely do more than this....but I find the trend of the text forecasts odd and slightly concerning given how much money is chucked at them as an organisation. I had a friend a few years ago whose wife worked there in PR, and said the guts of the organisation was all computer experts rather than meteorologists. Very sad if so.

If the models shift now to a much more high lat blocked and undercut scenario in week 2 then it makes the long range text forecast at Exeter feel like something that isn't worth reading because it includes little in the way of proper interpretation and conceptualisation of the forthcoming pattern.

Either that - or we end up with the wet and windy NW feed suggested above and I'm talking absolute rubbish.

Just musing.

[MattStoke]

Oh boy. Today’s update won’t go down well.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Oh boy. Today’s update won’t go down well.

Not liking the sound of that!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

Most places are likely to stay dry but rather cloudy through next week. The cloudiest and mildest weather is likely to be in the northwest, where it will be cloudy enough for some drizzle over the hills, and sometimes rather windy. In the south, winds will stay light and there is a greater chance of sunny spells, but also a greater likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Where fog does form, it may be slow to clear during the day. By the end of the week a change to wetter and windier weather is likely, particularly in the north. There is a risk of snow on hills in the north, and perhaps to lower levels at times too. In the south, night frost and fog will become less likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[swfc]

bit of a downgrade but subject to change as ever

[cobbett]

So feb now

Expecting the GEFs to start to have an upward trend now as as they are definitely not mild at the mo for mid Jan onwards 

Edited January 2, 2019 by cobbett

[northwestsnow]

 

If thats right many places wont have even seen a flake of snow before late Jan at the earliest.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 

If thats right many places wont have even seen a flake of snow before late Jan at the earliest.

I saw a flurry in October, if that counts.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Oh dear

[swfc]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I saw a flurry in October, if that counts.

I did,a mc flurry !!!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oh dear, Just as the models start to throw out BOOM runs. Think it might be a good idea to stop looking at the METO updates and focus on the models instead. 

[Leo97t]

I think they are wrong. Their accuracy has been abysmal so far

[bluearmy]

My take on this is that their in house modelling is showing no strong cold indicators and they are basing their prediction on something happening beyond what MOGREPS is showing related to MJO or SSW.  If latest GLOSEA run was showing cold then they wouldn’t be less bullish in today’s issue. Signals must be more mixed now when you would hope them to be getting clearer ......

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

My take on this is that their in house modelling is showing no strong cold indicators and they are basing their prediction on something happening beyond what MOGREPS is showing related to MJO or SSW.  If latest GLOSEA run was showing cold then they wouldn’t be less bullish in today’s issue. Signals must be more mixed now when you would hope them to be getting clearer ......

I did say alarm bells were beginning to ring after viewing the 00Z data-

Now they are full throttle ..

All those fabulous looking long rangers for Jan are shot to pieces unless we see a dramatic u-turn.

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I think they are wrong. Their accuracy has been abysmal so far

Really?

I think they've done pretty well for quite a while, to be honest.

Fair enough they keep delaying the cold but the SSW is obviously to blame for that with the uncertainties it brings

[MattStoke]

Managed to gain exclusive access to the draft for the Met Office outlook to be posted in a week’s time:

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Thursday 07 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards early February, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

[mountain shadow]

Massive, massive downgrade. There goes January too.