Jump to content

Meto Uk Further Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 8.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

Posted Images

There's little point in pretending that the Met O have not pushed back the start of the potential cold. We can see this in black and white by simple time comparison. 

It is what it is .......... a forecast which may, or may not, be accurate. But let's not kid ourselves that the MetO have some mystical and un-failingly reliable insight into what will actually transpire. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed. I mean I enjoy the cold whenever it comes (and last March was great) but nothing compares to snow in the heart of winter.

Definitely. Mr sunshine noticeably gains strength as we go into Feb so ideally we need a big freeze to happen between late Nov to late Jan imo. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

so could be end of january now as it says during this PERIOD ,for flips sake ,as i said in model thread before ,won’t be long before it’s early feb,then mid feb then game over.

My patience for this winter is running on thin ice?

do they mean January 2020?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's all starting to remind of a godawful pop song, from around 1974: January, February...?

Does that sign, on the Edinburgh bypass still direct one to Penicwik, PB? Anyway, Lothian is not alone in its capacity for creating silly road signs: there was a seasonal one on the A82, a mile or so outside Inverness, that warned drivers...DON'T DRINK AND DRINK:santa-emoji:

Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It was predicted late December before then New year, then mid January soon it’ll be February they don’t have a clue simple as that 

I don't think it relates to "Having a clue" it is what is, with warming around the globe, our winter season will change (one way OR the other), the MetO take their best stab at it using the available data. Seasons are subject to short (and long term) change, seemingly unless we see a SSW our winters are heading towards milder conditions with less cold.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It was predicted late December before then New year, then mid January soon it’ll be February they don’t have a clue simple as that 

Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.  

Time will tell who has a clue!!?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Met Office forecast suggests they are still expecting lagged effect of the SSW to occur sometime mid month, though not sure when - on average its a 2/3 week lag, which if we take the 1st as the base date, then the time of change will be sometime between 14th and 20th.

In the meantime, a slowly sinking high through the first part of January, followed by a movement in the PV  through Greenland temporarily- before it pulls itself apart, hence a week or so of atlantic weather, cold in the north - with cold air forced out of the Pole thanks to the warming effects, before a trigger build of heights probably through mid atlantic into Greenland joining heights over the Pole, and the jet crashing south - this would be the synoptical evolution based on Met Office thoughts - a very contrasting January then.

Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2019 to Sunday 13 Jan 2019:

Friday will be largely dry and cold with sunny spells for most places, however some fog or freezing fog patches may be slow to clear. The far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This forecast is slowly beginning to make sense to me now, HP pulled into the Atlantic with Westerlies turning North westerlies come northerlies/north easterlies..

i briefly discussed  this with Feb91 a few days ago and made this assertation to him then..

Fingers crossed!!

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes - I agree, it continues to suggest, heights will ridge out west and not sink, allowing a more NW-SE aligned jet flow to take hold - which is supported by reference to low level snow in the north, with heights ridging sufficiently westwards on an increasingly amplified flow, and the trigger to a colder pattern - with these heights nosing north into Greenland linking with heights over the Pole, and the jet crashing southwards. It all makes sense, especially given how the models are showing the current high holding firm and if anything edging northwards - not sinking south.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Suspect the forecast will change to be line with ECM and now the GFS and will reflect a more settled quiet outlook with little referance to Snow away from northern Scotland.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to post
Share on other sites

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...