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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure Phil.. snow to low levels in the north sounds like PM airflow?

Indeed, if it happens

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Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands

There's little point in pretending that the Met O have not pushed back the start of the potential cold. We can see this in black and white by simple time comparison. 

It is what it is .......... a forecast which may, or may not, be accurate. But let's not kid ourselves that the MetO have some mystical and un-failingly reliable insight into what will actually transpire. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
23 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed. I mean I enjoy the cold whenever it comes (and last March was great) but nothing compares to snow in the heart of winter.

Definitely. Mr sunshine noticeably gains strength as we go into Feb so ideally we need a big freeze to happen between late Nov to late Jan imo. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

so could be end of january now as it says during this PERIOD ,for flips sake ,as i said in model thread before ,won’t be long before it’s early feb,then mid feb then game over.

My patience for this winter is running on thin ice

do they mean January 2020

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's all starting to remind of a godawful pop song, from around 1974: January, February...

Does that sign, on the Edinburgh bypass still direct one to Penicwik, PB? Anyway, Lothian is not alone in its capacity for creating silly road signs: there was a seasonal one on the A82, a mile or so outside Inverness, that warned drivers...DON'T DRINK AND DRINK:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
55 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It was predicted late December before then New year, then mid January soon it’ll be February they don’t have a clue simple as that 

I don't think it relates to "Having a clue" it is what is, with warming around the globe, our winter season will change (one way OR the other), the MetO take their best stab at it using the available data. Seasons are subject to short (and long term) change, seemingly unless we see a SSW our winters are heading towards milder conditions with less cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

It was predicted late December before then New year, then mid January soon it’ll be February they don’t have a clue simple as that 

Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.  

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Your the one that doesn't have a clue. It's not exactly new musings that the reversal (not really the warming) at 60hpa in the stratosphere was gradually pushed backed in time, with modelling being somewhat progressive in that nature. The 1st/2nd is almost guaranteed now as the reversal date. The Met Office, draw conclusions from an accumulation of model data, with even the best insight in the world it is impossible to predict that the models were being progressive. There is also an issue as to the extent of coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, ie the extent of downwelling. The models have been loosely trending to a more -NAM setup with lower u values in the 100 - 300hpa region (see ECM), though there is still considerable uncertainty in this region. Now watch, in conjunction with the stratospheric plots, the extent of anomalous heights across the pole region as to a rough guide to the extent of downwelling.  

Time will tell who has a clue!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The Met Office forecast suggests they are still expecting lagged effect of the SSW to occur sometime mid month, though not sure when - on average its a 2/3 week lag, which if we take the 1st as the base date, then the time of change will be sometime between 14th and 20th.

In the meantime, a slowly sinking high through the first part of January, followed by a movement in the PV  through Greenland temporarily- before it pulls itself apart, hence a week or so of atlantic weather, cold in the north - with cold air forced out of the Pole thanks to the warming effects, before a trigger build of heights probably through mid atlantic into Greenland joining heights over the Pole, and the jet crashing south - this would be the synoptical evolution based on Met Office thoughts - a very contrasting January then.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Jan 2019 to Sunday 13 Jan 2019:

Friday will be largely dry and cold with sunny spells for most places, however some fog or freezing fog patches may be slow to clear. The far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Monday 28 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This forecast is slowly beginning to make sense to me now, HP pulled into the Atlantic with Westerlies turning North westerlies come northerlies/north easterlies..

i briefly discussed  this with Feb91 a few days ago and made this assertation to him then..

Fingers crossed!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Yes - I agree, it continues to suggest, heights will ridge out west and not sink, allowing a more NW-SE aligned jet flow to take hold - which is supported by reference to low level snow in the north, with heights ridging sufficiently westwards on an increasingly amplified flow, and the trigger to a colder pattern - with these heights nosing north into Greenland linking with heights over the Pole, and the jet crashing southwards. It all makes sense, especially given how the models are showing the current high holding firm and if anything edging northwards - not sinking south.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

If the model output does not change soon I reckon we'll start to see "late January ' before the word snow is mentioned, or they might ditch it all together.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Suspect the forecast will change to be line with ECM and now the GFS and will reflect a more settled quiet outlook with little referance to Snow away from northern Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Just wonder how long it will be until the words 'considerable uncertainty ' enter their outlook as the backtrack begins, which surely it must now.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Jan 2019 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

The first weekend of the New Year starts on a settled note, with many places dry with sunny spells after frosty starts, although some fog patches may be slow to clear. The far north and northwest may be cloudier with some drizzle over the hills, with these conditions perhaps spreading to eastern areas. This weather pattern continues into the following week, but by the end of the week there may be a change to more unsettled conditions for most areas, particularly in the north. Periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with brighter showery periods are possible, with a risk of some hill snow in the north, but perhaps to lower levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably recovering closer to average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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