Meto Uk Further Outlook

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree to a certain extent, but the line that stands out for me is 'snow to low levels in the north', at our reasonable altitude thats sounding very promising..

 

Yes, obviously better than normal weather but usually wet snow here.

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Let’s see what the next one says which is due any minute I guess - hopefully the same. 

Oh gawd its so confusing, so this is not todays?

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Let’s see what the next one says which is due any minute I guess - hopefully the same. 

 

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh gawd its so confusing, so this is not todays?

It must be today's its changed, unless there was an overnight one as well and its changed again, i can't see them changing it twice in 12 hours, particularly when they can wait for tonights EC46 for extra guidance.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

It must be today's its changed, unless there was an overnight one as well and its changed again, i can't see them changing it twice in 12 hours, particularly when they can wait for tonights EC46 for extra guidance.

The timings on it, updates early morning then early afternoon - unless im mistaken , last update around 0300

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The timings on it, updates early morning then early afternoon - unless im mistaken , last update around 0300

Same as earlier on latest output - not a bad thing 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

There is the chance of some rain across parts of the north and west, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog which will be slow to clear. It will be windy in the north, and a few coastal wintry showers are possible in the far northeast. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely in the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be rather cold with fairly extensive frost at first, especially in the north and east, with a trend to milder and more unsettled conditions later.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2019 to Saturday 26 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

No change..

Still going along with the EC 46 by the looks of things..

[Dunstable Snow]

Not specifically met office related but felt this was probably the best place to put this. Paul Simons 'Weather Eye' column in the Times this morning specifically references the stratospheric warming event and the expected implications for our weather with bitter easterly winds from later in January through into February. He goes on to raise concerns about the lack of rainfall in the south and east of the country which will not be helped by the dryer than normal conditions that are normally associated with easterlies. It is unusual for him to reference a potential weather event so far in advance with such apparent certainty.

The rest of the column talks about the met office predicting that 2019 could well be the second warmest year globally due to global warming and a developing El Nino event.

The column is worth a read.

I am quite happy with todays update from the met office by the way.

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2019 to Saturday 26 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

When I read the further outlook, it concerned me when they mentioned milder weather likely towards the end of the period.  Thankfully, this update hasn’t changed!

[booferking]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

No change..

Still going along with the EC 46 by the looks of things..

Yep its been going along with it for while now but did EC 46 not show blocking early Jan also but?

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

After a frosty start on Thursday, it looks set to be a mostly dry day with some bright or sunny spells. However, the far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Sunday 27 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

So now it doesn't say that the change to colder weather will be mid month. Are we seeing another gentle push back?

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

So now it doesn't say that the change to colder weather will be mid month. Are we seeing another gentle push back?

It's always been predicted for late January!

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

So now it doesn't say that the change to colder weather will be mid month. Are we seeing another gentle push back?

Hopenot K , think a good majority are sick of waiting for something approaching seasonal weather..

Its been far worse than i imagined so far.

 

[phil nw.]

Looking at eps clusters this morning for day 10 shows more than an even chance that pronounced ridging is hanging on around the UK.

Will be interesting if the zonality gets put back/canceled in later updates.

[SLEETY]

so could be end of january now as it says during this PERIOD ,for flips sake ,as i said in model thread before ,won’t be long before it’s early feb,then mid feb then game over.

My patience for this winter is running on thin ice

[matt111]

Could the reason they’ve dropped the bit mentioning about mid month be because as the period now starts in mid month?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Looking at eps clusters this morning for day 10 shows more than an even chance that pronounced ridging is hanging on around the UK.

Will be interesting if the zonality gets put back/canceled in later updates.

I think it will Phil .....

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Could the reason they’ve dropped the bit mentioning about mid month be because as the period now starts in mid month?

Then it should have read cold from the start. I think the change of wording means there is a possibility that the colder weather will take longer to arrive than first thought.

[phil nw.]

Looks like they are expecting the high to sink week 2 with the jet over the top,mmm...

[Froze were the Days]

13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

so could be end of january now as it says during this PERIOD ,for flips sake ,as i said in model thread before ,won’t be long before it’s early feb,then mid feb then game over.

My patience for this winter is running on thin ice

But why the impatience?...you can't go against all the signals (as you told me a while back) , all good things come to those who wait...and that wait will probably go on until a few days in March!

Edited December 29, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Looks like they are expecting the high to sink week 2 with the jet over the top,mmm...

Not sure Phil.. snow to low levels in the north sounds like PM airflow?

[karyo]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopenot K , think a good majority are sick of waiting for something approaching seasonal weather..

Its been far worse than i imagined so far.

 

Agreed. I mean I enjoy the cold whenever it comes (and last March was great) but nothing compares to snow in the heart of winter.