Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Selliso]

Very little change in wording from the last couple of days...

[northwestsnow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Sounds it , I really hope it doesn’t get put back even further tho

Me too mate, don't like the sound of more wind and rain in the interim though..

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't bank on this remaining the same tomorrow, that will depend on the EC46, it could change for better or worse.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Crikey, everything "bar the kitchen sink" in that update!! Does Francis Wilson work for the Met Office, now??

 

Sorry Mods, couldn't resist!!

Merry Xmas,

Regards,

Tom. 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:

On both Sunday and New Year's Eve there's a chance of rain across parts of the north and northwest, but there'll also be a good deal of dry weather, especially in the south although here some fog may linger through the day. Windy in the north, and generally mild. Similar conditions are expected on New Year's day, and the same pattern is likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north where there could be some hill snow, with a risk these unsettled conditions may spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards across the south with an increasing risk of frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:

On New Year's Eve there is the chance of rain across parts of the north and northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. Windy in the north, and generally mild. Similar conditions are expected on New Year's Day, and the same pattern is likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with increasing risk of frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Jan 2019 to Thursday 24 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Scandinavian High.]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:

On New Year's Eve there is the chance of rain across parts of the north and northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. Windy in the north, and generally mild. Similar conditions are expected on New Year's Day, and the same pattern is likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with increasing risk of frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I like that trending colder in the north and east 

[damianslaw]

Reading between the lines - the Met continue to hold firm on a pattern change in january, probably high pressure building in high lattitudes and winds coming from between north and east, but timing seems to keep being pushed back. 

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:

On New Year's Day there is the chance of some rain across parts of the northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. It will be windy in the north, and generally mild. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with an increasing risk of frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably become unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:

On New Year's Day there is the chance of some rain across parts of the northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. It will be windy in the north, and generally mild. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with an increasing risk of frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sounds a bit like todays EC 00Z, SS, not bad, GFS though is pants

[johnholmes]

Well the first sentence is pretty much a complete change round to 24 hours ago. Unsettled weather setting in for all parts. Even the s word in that sentence!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the first sentence is pretty much a complete change round to 24 hours ago. Unsettled weather setting in for all parts. Even the s word in that sentence!

Yes, it suggest the jet stream sinking more to the south, allowing polar air influences, this would aid height development to the north and north east. 

[phil nw.]

Yes looks like cool zonality for a spell once the high relents.

[feb1991blizzard]

To me its looked like cold zonality is the most likely trigger for this cold spell, to me though that fits in with the strat forecast as the mid atlantic ridge getting stronger with each Atlantic trough passing before becoming hopefully aa more permanent higher lattitude stationary pattern and the n toppling to Scandi, if it does, think logically how cold the continent will be by then!!   Of course there always remains the possibility that myself, and the strat and teleconnections experts and the met office could all be wrong and there might not be any cold spell at all!

[Polar Maritime]

I'm quite happy with that update.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I'm quite happy with that update.

Let’s see what the next one says which is due any minute I guess - hopefully the same. 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To me its looked like cold zonality is the most likely trigger for this cold spell, to me though that fits in with the strat forecast as the mid atlantic ridge getting stronger with each Atlantic trough passing before becoming hopefully aa more permanent higher lattitude stationary pattern and the n toppling to Scandi, if it does, think logically how cold the continent will be by then!!   Of course there always remains the possibility that myself, and the strat and teleconnections experts and the met office could all be wrong and there might not be any cold spell at all!

EXACTLY!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EXACTLY!!

Yes - forget the scandi high - for now - it might follow on at a better time.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I'm quite happy with that update.

Not much not to like PM, snow to low levels in the north- thats an UPGRADE 

And thats prior to the cold spell mid month.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - forget the scandi high - for now - it might follow on at a better time.

Never!!

Thats going to be the daddy

Atlantic ridging behind the SE jet and ridging up to Griceland onto scandy..

Thats my take anyway ..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not much not to like PM, snow to low levels in the north- thats an UPGRADE 

And thats prior to the cold spell mid month.

I prefer scandi highs, PM too slushy and marginal, but i just think it would fit in nicely and a scandi high might follow late Jan Early feb (at the best time), also the PM could (well will do if the strat imprint is full) turn into a greenland high.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I prefer scandi highs, PM too slushy and marginal, but i just think it would fit in nicely and a scandi high might follow late Jan Early feb (at the best time), also the PM could (well will do if the strat imprint is full) turn into a greenland high.

I agree to a certain extent, but the line that stands out for me is 'snow to low levels in the north', at our reasonable altitude thats sounding very promising..