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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    It is a change but i think they might now see another displacement towards the siberian Sector in the strat rather than a split - as per the last 2 GFS ops and thus might be thinking more of a Northerly rather than an Easterly

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    The cold is obviously being delayed with these updates.  Particularly uncertain at the moment.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet asl.
    7 minutes ago, Don said:

    The cold is obviously being delayed with these updates.  Particularly uncertain at the moment.  

    It'll arrive in Feb at this rate but if it's as good as last Feb beast then I won't grumble - good things come to those who wait. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

    It'll arrive in Feb at this rate but if it's as good as last Feb beast then I won't grumble - good things come to those who wait. 

     

     

    Me neither, as long as it does arrive!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Sunday 6 Jan 2019:

    The last few days of December see high pressure lying to the south of the UK. On Friday settled, cloudy conditions prevail in the south, whilst a band of rain and possibly some hill snow spreads eastwards across northern areas. This will followed by colder, clearer showery weather by Saturday. A similar pattern is likely into the first week of the New Year, with generally settled weather conditions predominating, especially in the south, but with occasional bouts of strong winds, rain and hill snow across the north and northwest, followed by colder, showery conditions. Where skies clear overnight there will be an increased risk of frost and fog. Temperatures generally mild to start, but trending downwards as we go into January.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2019 to Monday 21 Jan 2019:

    The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with a increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2019 to Monday 21 Jan 2019:

    The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with a increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    We await the word by word scrutiny and probably moans about the text.

    Seems alright to me though.

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    12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Monday 7 Jan 2019 to Monday 21 Jan 2019:

    The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with a increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    Not a great update want upgrades but just not happening yet but I feel upgrade s will arrive soon 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    We await the word by word scrutiny and probably moans about the text.

    Seems alright to me though.

    Can't really see why people would moan, you have to compare with previous updates, if its an upgrade, you can't complain, the only thing perhaps being that i would like to see something indicative of the trop pattern on the GEFS with polar maritime / Arctic Maritime in the Second week of Jan looking possible on those, but surely we have given up on bitterly cold air now in the first part of Jan.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Fair enough, if they dropped the word snow completely, then you could interpret the wording as mid lattitude ridges.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Fair enough, if they dropped the word snow completely, then you could interpret the wording as mid lattitude ridges.

    The shorter term update is actually an upgrade and mentioning colder weather as move into Jan..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    The shorter term update is actually an upgrade and mentioning colder weather as move into Jan..

    Thanks - got caught up and was just using models + own initiative so wasn't viewing them, this forecast may change soon to fit in with end of the 15 dayer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Fair enough, if they dropped the word snow completely, then you could interpret the wording as mid lattitude ridges.

    Looks more like one of those outlooks, in which very cold air from the east jostles for dominance with less-cold air encroaching from the west (and leaving Blighty often somewhere in between) to me. Result? Fog, frost and snow...?:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    36 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

    Not a great update want upgrades but just not happening yet but I feel upgrade s will arrive soon 

    Yeah terrible update,no mention of much colder weather or snow or anything is their?

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Looks more like one of those outlooks, in which very cold air from the east jostles for dominance with less-cold air encroaching from the west (and leaving Blighty often somewhere in between) to me. Result? Fog, frost and snow...?:santa-emoji:

    Or it could be a holding forecast until they're sure which airmass will win, BTW i am far from convinced of any brutal spell, im just saying the update does't rule it out for the whole of Jan, whilst the strat doesn't show a wide seperation of daughter vortices, you can't predict definitively a bitter spell, even the displacement again to the siberian sector would still allow for Northerlies, if we hadn't been promised so much, this would be a great situation to be in right now wrt January, particularly as there hasn't been many great Januaries in recent years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Or it could be a holding forecast until they're sure which airmass will win, BTW i am far from convinced of any brutal spell, im just saying the update does't rule it out for the whole of Jan, whilst the strat doesn't show a wide seperation of daughter vortices, you can't predict definitively a bitter spell, even the displacement again to the siberian sector would still allow for Northerlies, if we hadn't been promised so much, this would be a great situation to be in right now wrt January, particularly as there hasn't been many great Januaries in recent years.

    But it doesn't need to be 'brutal', for there to be plenty of snow, fog and frost, Feb: from my memory (barring a handful of exceptions) snow more-often-than-not falls with surface temperatures between -2 and +2 Celsius...? Even 1963 wasn't day after day of -15C uppers...

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    But it doesn't need to be 'brutal', for there to be plenty of snow, fog and frost, Feb: from my memory (barring a handful of exceptions) snow more-often-than-not falls with surface temperatures between -2 and +2 Celsius...? Even 1963 wasn't day after day of -15C uppers...

    Yes, thats what i am saying, and even if there were no strat forecasts available, the fact that a Northerly is on the menu at the back end of GFS suite FI, we would'nt be complaining, although i prefer Easterlie myself.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Monday 7 Jan 2019:

    The last few days of December will see high pressure affecting the UK, so it should stay largely dry and cloudy here. However, wind and rain is likely across parts of the north at times, especially on Saturday. By New Year's Eve most areas should be largely dry with variable amounts of cloud and the best of the sunshine is likely in the south. However some fog patches could form where the skies clear, and possibly linger through the day in some areas. A similar pattern is likely into the first week of the New Year, although there are signs that more unsettled conditions could arrive later in the period. After a mild start, especially in the north, temperatures will probably return to near normal with night frosts at times.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2019:

    The second week of January will probably be settled and generally dry across the south, with variable amounts of cloud and overnight mist and fog patches. In the north there may be more changeable weather at times, with occasional wet and windy weather bringing a risk of gales and hill snow. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with a increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, with these conditions probably continuing for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to much colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Monday 7 Jan 2019:

    The last few days of December will see high pressure affecting the UK, so it should stay largely dry and cloudy here. However, wind and rain is likely across parts of the north at times, especially on Saturday. By New Year's Eve most areas should be largely dry with variable amounts of cloud and the best of the sunshine is likely in the south. However some fog patches could form where the skies clear, and possibly linger through the day in some areas. A similar pattern is likely into the first week of the New Year, although there are signs that more unsettled conditions could arrive later in the period. After a mild start, especially in the north, temperatures will probably return to near normal with night frosts at times.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    seems realistic up to 7th, any cold arriving 2 weeks after that

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Mid month it is then...

    Sounds it , I really hope it doesn’t get put back even further tho ??

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