Meto Uk Further Outlook

[weirpig]

Well as updates go  most would take that.    sounds like a typical forcast when a SSW is in the mix

[matt111]

Wouldn’t say that’s much worse than the last one, even if the word mild has appeared again in the text. 

[weirpig]

Just now, matt111 said:

Wouldn’t say that’s much worse than the last one, even if the word mild has appeared again in the text. 

Yep  Brilliant update  as many have said before  an SSW gives a 70ish percent chance of cold weather  Not 100.  Still a chance of milder weather  hence why its mentioned in the forecast. 

[Don]

All good until the last paragraph

[karyo]

To be honest,  this reminds me of the updates we had a month ago and I'm the end we only for a brief cold spell. Also the wintry showers indicate that the uppers won't be very cold. Snow likely in frontal battlegrounds where not very cold uppers are needed.

Let's take it as a holding update till the situation with the stratosphere becomes clear.

Edited December 17, 2018 by karyo

[SLEETY]

but at that range you can’t give out warning for heavy snow showers,they would only be laughed out if it didn’t happen.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

I sense jitters now.  Maybe that JAMSTEC forecast wasn't so ridiculous after all... 

No, not jitters; just what they missed-out yesterday...? How can Atlantic fronts move in, give us all bucket-loads of snow, and yet never threaten us with a single 'milder interlude'?

BTW, that's positive spin!

[terrier]

Like I said earlier in the model thread I think far too much has been made of this ssw. Yes a ssw can increase our chances of colder weather. But it certainly doesn’t guarantee it. With that last paragraph of the update I’m wondering if Glosea is moving away from the ssw affecting the U.K. from a cold outbreak. Looking at the output over the weekend it seems like the split could send the cold towards North America side of the globe. Leaving us open to Atlantic weather. Which could tie in with that last sentence. 

[MattStoke]

How did I know know people would start being downbeat at the mention of milder conditions bring possible at times It’s the UK, for goodness sake! There will always be systems trying to move in from the Atlantic.

It’s a great update and no downgrade on yesterday’s in the slightest, but some people love to try and spread doom and gloom. Absolutely tiresome.

[ICE COLD]

Everyone it says the cold spell is the most likely outcome . So why the negativity? They aren’t gonna say it’s 100% are they ? And it mentions mild wet windy at the end , it’s the uk not Canada there’s always a chance of that . 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Like I said earlier in the model thread I think far too much has been made of this ssw. Yes a ssw can increase our chances of colder weather. But it certainly doesn’t guarantee it. With that last paragraph of the update I’m wondering if Glosea is moving away from the ssw affecting the U.K. from a cold outbreak. Looking at the output over the weekend it seems like the split could send the cold towards North America side of the globe. Leaving us open to Atlantic weather. Which could tie in with that last sentence. 

How can glosea be moving away , it’s says cold is the most likely outcome?? 

[Don]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Everyone it says the cold spell is the most likely outcome . So why the negativity? They aren’t gonna say it’s 100% are they ? And it mentions mild wet windy at the end , it’s the uk not Canada there’s always a chance of that . 

Because they sound less confident than the last few updates, which could suggest the signs are becoming less favourable for cold. Plenty of twists and turns to come though, I’m sure.

[matt111]

If you hold onto every last word rather than reading between the lines then you might be slightly disappointed with the update today but otherwise what’s the problem? 

[Scandinavian High.]

Can’t believe folks are still down beat after that update we might as well pack up and move to Canada.

Edited December 17, 2018 by abbie123

[Don]

6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Can’t believe folks are still down beat after that update we might as well pack up and move to Canada.

Might as well take a holiday there!

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Can’t believe folks are still down beat after that update we might as well pack up and move to Canada.

Many of the most populated parts of Canada are above average at the moment with no snow on the ground. There is a chance things will improve for them as the PV locates back into NE Canada next week driving the cold air into Central and Eastern Canada and then out into the Atlantic.

Edited December 17, 2018 by mountain shadow

[SLEETY]

at least they mention snow chances.Ive been through countless winters in the past 30 years without seeing any snowflakes.People expectations regarding snow in this country are way too high.

We are in the worst position in the NH to receive snow and cold.Think i will book that holiday to maritime canada next winter,at least then you are guaranteed to see a winter wonderland.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

 

We are in the worst position in the NH to receive snow and cold.

In the whole Northern Hemisphere?

[SLEETY]

at our latitude i forget to add

[Rambo]

Dont forget, the MetO updates arent there for people on this forum to get a definitive answer on what the weather will do a month in the future! They couldn't possibly put an update out that says it will definitely be cold. One because they dont know, no one does. And secondly, imagine the press reaction..."Met Office says heavy snow and bitter cold due for month of January bla bla bla!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

To give you an idea as to how accurate those forecasts can be when the signal is overwhelmingly strong, the change to cold and snowy in January 2013 ticked down with precision from about 4 weeks out...

We have taken a step back in general over the past couple of days- things that were looking nailed on now look less certain...strat included.

[lassie23]

it's over better luck next year  in the October flog index we trust

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, MattStoke said:

How did I know know people would start being downbeat at the mention of milder conditions bring possible at times It’s the UK, for goodness sake! There will always be systems trying to move in from the Atlantic.

It’s a great update and no downgrade on yesterday’s in the slightest, but some people love to try and spread doom and gloom. Absolutely tiresome.

Aye, even I think it's a great update, the main Atlantic dec/Jan believer, just need the systems attacking on SSE/SE angle, then snow to rain, if we're lucky no rain

[Don]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To give you an idea as to how accurate those forecasts can be when the signal is overwhelmingly strong, the change to cold and snowy in January 2013 ticked down with precision from about 4 weeks out...

We have taken a step back in general over the past couple of days- things that were looking nailed on now look less certain...strat included.

I have a bad feeling about this all now.  Of course, it could be part of the rollercoaster which could swing up again tomorrow!

Edited December 17, 2018 by Don

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast