Meto Uk Further Outlook

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

What about today’s update then mate . Even  bloody better .

looks to me like MOGREPS must also have a blocked cluster for the back end of the year so they are keeping their options open re the onset of blocking. they are obviously confident re the  change to proper cold and its when rather than if ……..

[phil nw.]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looks to me like MOGREPS must also have a blocked cluster for the back end of the year so they are keeping their options open re the onset of blocking. they are obviously confident re the  change to proper cold and its when rather than if ……..

Yes later eps clusters have around a 3rd going for blocking to our east/north east and a lot of clustering around a split jet pattern over the Atlantic.

[Weathizard]

Calm down everyone, did you not know they let Steve murr write today’s update 

[Chesil View]

Crikey that is a very bullish outlook for cold in the latest update from the normally ultra cautious Met office. Ties in with what one of their spokesmen was saying LBC radio this morning.

[Mike Poole]

I'm guessing GloSea5 has now all but confirmed the split strat vortex evolution.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Bricriu]

5 hours ago, lassie23 said:

i haven't seen a white christmas or new year in years

You need to get your fabled bucket out.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Dec 2018 to Saturday 29 Dec 2018:

Thursday should start showery, especially in the north and west, but the showers should die out through the day, and the brisk breeze in the south should ease too. Temperatures will be around normal, so some overnight frosts are likely. Further wet and windy weather is then expected to arrive from the west on Friday. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around average, or a little above in the south. However, there is a small chance of a colder and showery spell developing during Christmas week.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[MattStoke]

Pretty much 'as you were'. Nice to see the small chance of a colder spell around Christmas still being mentioned.

[MattStoke]

This one hasn't updated yet. The dates are the same as they were yesterday.

Edit: Dates have now changed. No change to the text from yesterday’s update.

Edited December 15, 2018 by MattStoke

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[cheshire snow]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Nothing mild about that update WOW just WOW

C.S

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Nothing mild about that update WOW just WOW

C.S

agreed CS..

A quite fabulous update!!

[Methuselah]

Aye folks - that's the best 16-30-dayer I've ever seen! We didn't have the benefit of such luxuries in 1963!

[Banbury]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye folks - that's the best 16-30-dayer I've ever seen! We didn't have the benefit of such luxuries in 1963!

I wouldn't go that far ED , its good though no doubt

[terrier]

Don’t mean to be the grinch here. But if we look back at there 16/30 day outlook for November it failed miserably. So although it does make pleasant reading I certainly wouldn’t be betting my mortgage on it. 

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Don’t mean to be the grinch here. But if we look back at there 16/30 day outlook for November it failed miserably. So although it does make pleasant reading I certainly wouldn’t be betting my mortgage on it. 

Exactly...signals into the New Year look better for cold than mild but I wouldn't hang your hat on every word they state!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Exactly...signals into the New Year look better for cold than mild but I wouldn't hang your hat on every word they state!

Me neither...But it only needs for January to be half as good as our expectations...

[SLEETY]

That’s why people should stop throwing their toys out in the model  thread because the current runs are looking poor for cold.Its too far out for them to pick up on.Surely we can get a decent cold snap even in january,it almost feels like a spring month these days.Nothing has come close to 87 since regarding cold uppers,been colder uppers in March .

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That will do I suppose

[bluearmy]

A vain attempt to stop the express pinning this wintry prediction on them !

now it’s easterly ..... a few days ago it was northerly ...... it’s a bit less confident in its wording too but the message broadly remains the same ....

[PLANET THANET]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

are the met having slight doubts now about the cold because of the proviso at the end