Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Decemberof2010]

So just as the models start showing interest the MO go the other way. Very disappointing update. 

[Wimbledon88]

Disagree folks. They seem to be on to a more mobile situation with perhaps more southerly tracking low pressure systems, hence the snow in the North sentence. Like early last December for example. 

[ICE COLD]

Sitting on the fence springs to mind . Petty short and sharpe update today . 

Edited November 8, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Sitting on the fence springs to mind . 

What do you expect, at that range? An hour-by-hour detailed forecast?

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Disagree folks. They seem to be on to a more mobile situation with perhaps more southerly tracking low pressure systems, hence the snow in the North sentence. Like early last December for example. 

Really??!!

Snow on Northern hills in December is absolutely normal winter weather. Nowt unusual about it and imho does NOT indicate southerly tracking LP systems.

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What do you expect, at that range? An hour-by-hour detailed forecast?

Be good if they could . Just thought it was a fairly short update today . Yesterday's update didn't even make sense towards the end . Just can't get the staff these days .

Edited November 8, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really??!!

Snow on Northern hills in December is absolutely normal winter weather. Nowt unusual about it and imho does NOT indicate southerly tracking LP systems.

Yup the update sounds like a classic zonal pattern to me with the odd cold air incursion behind passing low pressure systems... and the odd frost under a transient ridge, a pretty disappointing update if its northern blocking you are after.

But then again I only focus on the model output up until T240.... the update could be completely different in 3 days time.

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really??!!

Snow on Northern hills in December is absolutely normal winter weather. Nowt unusual about it and imho does NOT indicate southerly tracking LP systems.

I'm not so sure, BB: for there to be any chance of snow, in lowland Southern England, cold air must get pretty far south at times. And, IMO, a jet on a more southerly track (than usual) would achieve that...?

Then again, so might the scenario QS suggests...?

Edited November 8, 2018 by Ed Stone

[coldie]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Really??!!

Snow on Northern hills in December is absolutely normal winter weather. Nowt unusual about it and imho does NOT indicate southerly tracking LP systems.

The update says snow is possible, especially over northern hills, so they're not ruling out snow down south or down to low levels either are they. Just because they haven't mentioned snow for the south doesn't mean it's a downgrade.

Edited November 8, 2018 by coldie

[ICE COLD]

55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2018 to Friday 7 Dec 2018:

A transition away from the relatively settled weather is possible towards the end of November with showers or longer spells of rain most likely to spread to all parts at times; though the northwest will remain the focus for greatest rainfall. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around normal with overnight frosts likely in more settled interludes given the time of year. Snow is possible, especially over northern hills as we move into early December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

You lot are reading to much into this update . Read the first line of the update . Yes that says POSSIBLE . Get a grip people it's one long range update .

[karyo]

The update up to yesterday was indicating a blocked pattern with high pressure and temperature dropping.

Today's update is a typical positive NAO Atlantic driven weather. Huge change! We can only hope that they will be wrong.

[coldie]

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

Today's update is a typical positive NAO Atlantic driven weather. Huge change! We can only hope that they will be wrong.

Very misleading as the update doesn't suggest this whatsoever.

Edited November 8, 2018 by coldie

[karyo]

17 minutes ago, coldie said:

Very misleading as the update doesn't suggest this whatsoever.

The update never mentions positive or negative NAO. It is written in simple terms for the public. The weather it describes would correlate to positive NAO.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2018 to Friday 7 Dec 2018:

A transition away from the relatively settled weather is possible towards the end of November with showers or longer spells of rain most likely to spread to all parts at times; though the northwest will remain the focus for greatest rainfall. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around normal with overnight frosts likely in more settled interludes given the time of year. Snow is possible, especially over northern hills as we move into early December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That's why I take these with a pinch of salt... a couple of weeks back they were saying (towards mid-November) largely normal to colder than average temperatures and mild spells will be relatively short lived, has that happened?...no. 'A transition away from the relatively settled weather is possible towards the end of November' - are we in a settled period or look like it in the next week?

Even with their super computers forecasting with any accuracy 2/3 weeks down the line isn't that fantastic unless at this time of year we have a roaring jet from west to east and 'typical' Tm to Pm transition type weather...

Edited November 8, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Don]

Agreed this is a rather poor update for those wanting cold.  However, very early days and plenty of time for some ‘proper’ cold later on.  

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2018 to Friday 23 Nov 2018:

Wednesday is likely to be a mild day with cloud and outbreaks of rain in the north and west as well as some central areas. The southeast will be drier and brighter. Rain will tend to clear northwards on Thursday to leave a mainly dry day with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. Through the end of the week mild, dry weather looks set to extend across many areas with rain confined to the northwest once more. Early mist and fog may become more prevalent across south and eastern parts, while windier conditions will reduce this risk in the northwest; overnight frosts, however, are more likely in the north. These drier than average conditions may continue through the end of the period, with temperatures gradually returning to normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2018 to Saturday 8 Dec 2018:

During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2018 to Saturday 8 Dec 2018:

During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A swing back to colder?

[matt111]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

A swing back to colder?

Certainly looks better than yesterday’s update. 

[Boro Snow]

Back on board 

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

A swing back to colder?

Certainly appears to be when compared to yesterday's at the top of the page

[Don]

And the rollercoaster continues!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:

Mostly dry on Thursday, but quite cloudy for some with the best of the bright or sunny spells in the southeast and to the lee of high ground. Rain may persist in the far northwest for a time. Overnight mist and fog patches are possible which will be slow to clear on Friday morning. Through the end of the week mild, dry weather looks set to extend across many areas with rain confined to northwestern parts. Early mist and fog may become more prevalent across the south and eastern, while windier conditions will reduce this risk in the northwest. However, there is a greater chance for overnight frosts in the north. These drier than average conditions may continue through the end of the period, with temperatures gradually returning to normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2018 to Sunday 9 Dec 2018:

During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Froze were the Days]

Hahaha!...a revert to back where we were a week or so ago then, these chop and changing updates doesn't fill one with confidence