Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 May 2018 to Thursday 10 May 2018:

Most of the UK can expect dry and fine weather on Tuesday, though temperatures will probably stay a little below average, and a few showers may affect the south-east. It is likely to cloud over from the west during the day, with rain arriving in Northern Ireland later, and recahing the rest of the UK overnight and into Wednesday. Changeable weather will continue during the first few days of May with brisk winds and spells of rain at times, but there will be a few drier and sunnier spells too, particularly in the south from next weekend onwards. Temperatures will tend to recover gradually to near-normal or even a little above normal in the south but stay rather cool in the north, so overnight frost remains possible here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 May 2018 to Saturday 26 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may develop through this period bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence in this aspect of the forecast is low. Mixed weather with showers or longer spells of rain remain possible, particularly in the north, although any unsettled weather will tend to be short-lived. However, expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 May 2018 to Friday 11 May 2018:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain will move east across the country on Wednesday followed by sunny spells and showers. Thursday will probably see a dry start in many areas before another band of rain arrives in the west later in the day. Changeable weather will continue during the rest of the period with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. However, there will be a few drier and sunnier spells too, particularly in the south from next weekend onwards, although showers are still possible here. Temperatures will start off fairly cool, although they will tend to recover gradually to near-normal or even a little above normal in the south. It will stay rather cool in the north throughout, so overnight frost remains possible here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[iapennell]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 May 2018 to Friday 11 May 2018:

Cloud and outbreaks of rain will move east across the country on Wednesday followed by sunny spells and showers. Thursday will probably see a dry start in many areas before another band of rain arrives in the west later in the day. Changeable weather will continue during the rest of the period with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. However, there will be a few drier and sunnier spells too, particularly in the south from next weekend onwards, although showers are still possible here. Temperatures will start off fairly cool, although they will tend to recover gradually to near-normal or even a little above normal in the south. It will stay rather cool in the north throughout, so overnight frost remains possible here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Looking at the synoptics predicted for the next half-month shows that there is going to be plenty of chilly weather still to come:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfscharts.asp

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, iapennell said:

Looking at the synoptics predicted for the next half-month shows that there is going to be plenty of chilly weather still to come:

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfscharts.asp

I've seen your long range forecasts and you definitely know your stuff. Is there any credence to a 10 day heatwave mid-may that some crap rags are already spurting out? The only source I can see is the weather channel and they claim it to be spurious

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 May 2018 to Sunday 27 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is low. An alternative but less likely scenario is mixed weather with dry spells interspersed by showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west. Any unsettled weather will tend to be short-lived. Expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 May 2018 to Saturday 12 May 2018:

Thursday and Friday will probably be dry, bright and warmer in the southern half of the UK, and perhaps near northeastern coasts at first. However, rain and strong winds are likely in north-west Britain and in Northern Ireland, keeping it rather cool here. The bank holiday weekend looks quite promising in the south with plenty of dry weather and a good chance of warm sunshine, especially in the southeast. In the north, however, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to near-normal. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[damianslaw]

What sort of forecast is the above? Very misleading, can't work out what they are predicting. Saying the warm dry spell is low, but the alternative less likely scenario is mixed weather and then expect marked variations in temp, reading between it all, the highest probability must therefore be for average temps but with drier conditions more likely than unsettled. It suggests the azores high whilst giving some warm dry weather earlier in May will be pushed into the mid atlantic and cooler though mostly dry NW/W winds will invade, and these tend to give much of the UK settled conditions away from the NW, precipitation coming in the form of showers.

[Ice Man 85]

38 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What sort of forecast is the above? Very misleading, can't work out what they are predicting. Saying the warm dry spell is low, but the alternative less likely scenario is mixed weather and then expect marked variations in temp, reading between it all, the highest probability must therefore be for average temps but with drier conditions more likely than unsettled. It suggests the azores high whilst giving some warm dry weather earlier in May will be pushed into the mid atlantic and cooler though mostly dry NW/W winds will invade, and these tend to give much of the UK settled conditions away from the NW, precipitation coming in the form of showers.

Hedging their bets is an understatement.

[weatherguru14]

I see the BBC have the Jetstream  way to the north in their forecast in the last 2 days.. in the last few years they have been doing this. Only for the very far south of the Uk. to be only place that's influenced by the settled  weather. I hope most of the UK get some good weather.. And not the usual  bbc  backtracking afterwards.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 14 May 2018 to Monday 28 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. However, confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is low. An alternative but less likely scenario is mixed weather with dry spells interspersed by showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, though wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Expect some marked variations in temperature as is usual at this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 4 May 2018 to Sunday 13 May 2018:

Friday will be dry, bright and warmer in the southern half of the UK, and perhaps near northeastern coasts at first. However, rain and strong winds are likely in north-west Britain and in Northern Ireland, keeping it rather cool here. The bank holiday weekend looks distinctly promising in the south with plenty of dry weather and a good chance of warm sunshine, especially in the southeast. In the north, however, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to near-normal. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 May 2018 to Tuesday 29 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 May 2018 to Monday 14 May 2018:

After some early mist and fog, many areas will be dry with warm sunny spells over the Bank Holiday weekend. Along the east coast in particular however, it is likely to be cooler and cloudier. The winds will be light for many, however in the north, changeable weather will continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times, keeping it cooler here. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too though, and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to the seasonal average. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country though there is less confidence about this period. It is likely to stay warm, however there is an increasing risk of thundery showers too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 May 2018 to Tuesday 29 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

Not too bad at all.

The model output does show that either the Azores High or Euro High are always in play so no wash out and hopefully a signal for more settled weather will continue.

[iapennell]

On 27/04/2018 at 16:20, Ice Man 85 said:

I've seen your long range forecasts and you definitely know your stuff. Is there any credence to a 10 day heatwave mid-may that some crap rags are already spurting out? The only source I can see is the weather channel and they claim it to be spurious

@Ice Man 85 In my seasonal prediction I predict unsettled and colder than normal conditions early and mid-May but later in the month a Scandinavian High set-up lasting for a week is predicted to bring some sunny very warm days, but also some chilly clear nights.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 May 2018 to Wednesday 30 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 May 2018 to Tuesday 15 May 2018:

After some early mist and fog, many areas will be dry with warm sunny spells on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. Along the east coast in particular however, it is likely to be cooler and cloudier. The winds will be light for many, however in the north, changeable weather may continue for a few more days, with brisk winds and spells of rain at times, keeping it cooler here. There will be drier and sunnier spells here too though, and temperatures will tend to recover gradually to the seasonal average. In the following week, fine weather is more likely across the whole country. It is likely to stay warm, however there is an increasing risk of thundery showers too, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 May 2018 to Thursday 31 May 2018:

A dry and bright spell of weather with light winds may continue at the start of this period, bringing above-average temperatures for many places. Confidence for a continuing warm dry spell is however low. Through the rest of May, generally mixed conditions are possible. These include some further dry spells, as well as more changeable periods with rain or showers, although wet and windy weather will tend to be short-lived. Some marked variations in temperature can also be expected, as is usual at this time of year, but a few warm thundery spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 7 May 2018 to Wednesday 16 May 2018:

Bank Holiday Monday and into Tuesday will be mainly fine and dry, with a good deal of sunshine and feeling rather warm for many. However, there may be some coastal mist and fog at times, where it will be cooler. The far northwest may be cloudier with patchy rain and drizzle at times. There is the low risk of some thundery showers developing in the southeast. Some uncertainty in from the middle of next week, although at this stage it looks like most places will stay mainly dry with sunny spells. However, there is an increasing chance of more changeable, breezier interludes, with rain or showers moving in from the west, more especially for northern parts of the UK. Probably remaining warm, but temperatures may return closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 18 May 2018 to Friday 1 Jun 2018:

Generally mixed conditions are expected for the rest of May, which will give some further dry spells as well as shorter more changeable periods of weather, with rain or showers becoming more widespread. A slow moving and blocked pattern will probably dominate, with any spells of Atlantic weather generally short-lived, these mostly affecting the north and west. Some warm and thundery spells are also possible during the second half of May, perhaps going on into early June. Temperatures overall will probably be slightly above the average, although there are likely to marked variations in temperatures, depending on any influence from Atlantic weather systems during the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 May 2018 to Thursday 17 May 2018:

Tuesday will be mainly fine and dry, with a good deal of sunshine and feeling rather warm for many. However, there may be some coastal mist and fog at times, where it will be cooler. The far northwest may be cloudier with some rain and strong winds. There is the low risk of some thunderstorms moving up from the near continent in the south by midweek. Thereafter, a northwest/southeast split seems most likely, although with increasing uncertainty. As such, the north and west are likely to see strong winds and spells of rain at times, interspersed with drier and brighter spells. The rest of the UK is likely to see plenty of settled weather. Temperatures are likely to be above normal in the south, but near normal elsewhere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 May 2018 to Saturday 2 Jun 2018:

Generally mixed conditions are expected for the rest of May, which will give some further dry spells as well as shorter more changeable periods of weather, with rain or showers becoming more widespread. A slowly changing weather pattern will probably dominate, with any spells of Atlantic weather generally short-lived, these mostly affecting the north and west. Some warm and thundery spells are also possible during the second half of May, perhaps going on into early June. Temperatures overall will probably be slightly above the average, although there are likely to be marked variations in temperatures, depending on any influence from Atlantic weather systems during the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 May 2018 to Friday 18 May 2018:

Bands of rain or showers are likely to push eastwards across the UK on Wednesday with some heavier bursts likely at times. The odd isolated thunderstorm is also possible in the far east. Brighter, showery conditions are likely to follow into the west late Wednesday and into Thursday. Probably starting warm and humid in the east at first, before temperatures return to nearer normal. Thereafter, a northwest/southeast split seems most likely, although with increasing uncertainty. As such, the north and west are likely to see strong winds and spells of rain at times, interspersed with drier and brighter spells. Plenty of settled weather is likely elsewhere, with the risk of thunderstorms in the south at times. Temperatures are likely to be above normal in the south, but near normal elsewhere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 May 2018 to Saturday 2 Jun 2018:

Generally mixed conditions are expected for the rest of May, which will give some further dry spells as well as shorter more changeable periods of weather, with rain or showers becoming more widespread. A slowly changing weather pattern will probably dominate, with any spells of Atlantic weather generally short-lived, these mostly affecting the north and west. Some warm and thundery spells are also possible during the second half of May, perhaps going on into early June. Temperatures overall will probably be slightly above the average, although there are likely to be marked variations in temperatures, depending on any influence from Atlantic weather systems during the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26