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UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Mar 2018 to Monday 9 Apr 2018:

Easter weekend looks set to bring rather changeable weather across the UK with a mixture of showers and more organised bands of rain and hill snow at times. Most areas will see some brighter spells, the best of these in the northwest. It will be rather cold and at times windy. There is a low risk of snow across all parts, but this is most likely over higher ground in the north. Overnight frosts possible, however temperatures by day in the south may start to recover closer to normal. This changeable theme looks set to remain through much of the week; there are signals for a spell of unsettled weather across the south while the north may remain drier and brighter. All areas may become more settled by the weekend.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In reply to this  My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them co

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 24 Apr 2018:

Settled, slow-moving conditions are likely to be more dominant by mid-April with overnight frosts and patchy fog. There is very low confidence in the latter part of April. Most likely a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of milder days can still be expected. Overnight frosts are still possible in more settled spells, but these should tend to become more restricted to the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Not often I comment of these outlooks.

To me they are still hedging re the temperature levels and snow risk. This is rather different from the emphasis on BBC TV after the 1300 News. No doubt an instance of BBC data via their new weather provider and UK Met data not being the same.

Must say the anomaly charts I use do suggest the BBC may be nearer the mark over Easter.

Of course we will know by this time next week!

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5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Not often I comment of these outlooks.

To me they are still hedging re the temperature levels and snow risk. This is rather different from the emphasis on BBC TV after the 1300 News. No doubt an instance of BBC data via their new weather provider and UK Met data not being the same.

Must say the anomaly charts I use do suggest the BBC may be nearer the mark over Easter.

Of course we will know by this time next week!

Yes, I'm afraid now I'm starting to slowly accept the inevitable, that the closed season is nearly upon us.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 1 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 10 Apr 2018:

Easter Sunday should be rather cool or cold with a band of cloud and light rain and hill snow across central and eastern areas. It'll turn cloudier in the south later with some rain potentially affecting the far southwest by end of the day. A drier day for Scotland. Overnight frost and icy likely. As we head into mid-week it remains cold with a risk of snow for all areas, although this is most likely over northern high ground. The driest and sunniest periods are expected in the northwest with unsettled weather persisting for central and southern parts of the UK. Again, windy at times with overnight frosts likely. Towards the second week of April more settled conditions may become more dominant with overnight frosts and patchy fog. Staying cool.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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UK Outlook for Wednesday 11 Apr 2018 to Wednesday 25 Apr 2018:

Settled, slow-moving conditions are likely to be more dominant by mid-April with overnight frosts and patchy fog. There is very low confidence in the latter part of April. Most likely a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of milder days can still be expected. Overnight frosts are still possible in more settled spells, but these should tend to become more restricted to the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 2 Apr 2018 to Wednesday 11 Apr 2018:

Easter Monday should start dry and cold across the north of the UK with a band of rain and, mainly, hill snow moving northwards into central and northern parts of England and Wales. Tuesday should remain unsettled with further spells of rain or showers and some strong winds, especially in the south and west. As we head through early April it will probably remain rather cold and changeable, with showers or outbreaks of rain, and a risk of snow, mainly over northern hills. The driest weather will be in the northwest with unsettled conditions most probably affecting central and southern areas. Spells of strong winds are likely for the southwest. However, more generally settled weather, with overnight fog or frost risk, may develop in the run up to mid-April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 12 Apr 2018 to Thursday 26 Apr 2018:

The start of this period should see more generally settled conditions develop across the UK bringing overnight frost and fog risks, with southern parts seeing the best of the dry and sunny weather in the lead up to mid-April. The latter half of April will probably see a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of warmer days can still be expected. There are likely to be overnight frosts in the more settled spells and these should tend to become more restricted to the north of the UK as we head into late April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 13 Apr 2018 to Friday 27 Apr 2018:

The start of this period should see more generally settled conditions develop across the UK, with southern parts seeing the best of the dry and sunny weather in the lead up to mid-April. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast detail going into the latter half of April, but there will probably be a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of warmer days can still be expected. There are likely to be overnight frosts in the more settled spells and these should become restricted to the north of the UK as we head into late April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Apr 2018 to Thursday 12 Apr 2018:

Tuesday and Wednesday should be largely dry and bright in the far north with some snow showers, but cloudier elsewhere with outbreaks of rain and hill snow for some. It will be generally cold with overnight frosts especially in the north, but temperatures may be closer to average in the south. As we head through early April it will probably remain rather cold and changeable, sometimes windy, with showers or outbreaks of rain, and a risk of snow mainly over northern hills. The driest weather may become more focussed in the southeast, with occasional warmer interludes, with more unsettled conditions most probably affecting northwestern areas. However, more generally settled, warmer weather may develop in the run up to mid-April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 13 Apr 2018 to Friday 27 Apr 2018:

The start of this period should see more generally settled conditions develop across the UK, with southern parts seeing the best of the dry and sunny weather in the lead up to mid-April. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast detail going into the latter half of April, but there will probably be a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of warmer days can still be expected. There are likely to be overnight frosts in the more settled spells and these should become restricted to the north of the UK as we head into late April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Apr 2018 to Friday 13 Apr 2018:

The latter half of next week may be largely dry and bright in the far north, but it will be cold with some snow showers at times. Elsewhere across the UK it will be unsettled with outbreaks of rain and hill snow for some, and it will be windy at times with a risk of gales. There will be some frost overnight, especially in the north, but temperatures may be closer to average in the south. The following week will probably begin fairly unsettled, with very strong winds and heavy rainfall possible for many. As we head towards mid-April, there is an increased chance of drier and more settled conditions, with a risk of frost and fog in places overnight, but warmer days at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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On 3/26/2018 at 14:28, johnholmes said:

Not often I comment of these outlooks.

To me they are still hedging re the temperature levels and snow risk. This is rather different from the emphasis on BBC TV after the 1300 News. No doubt an instance of BBC data via their new weather provider and UK Met data not being the same.

Must say the anomaly charts I use do suggest the BBC may be nearer the mark over Easter.

Of course we will know by this time next week!

The latest output suggests that Met were nearer the mark re temperatures for the Easter period

re the anomaly charts the earlier issues seem nearer the mark in terms of just what the 500 mb flow is looking likely to be over the Easter weekend than charts 2-3 days later!

Run the link below and you can see that the 24-72 hours 500 mb prediction shows a flow north of west, hence the colder surface temperatures than if the flow had been s of west or even westerly.

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=985269e4ed8adfb2cc5bab172f16180e

By Monday they seem to warm with the trough not there, suspect the actual on Monday will not be like that?

Edited by johnholmes
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UK Outlook for Sunday 15 Apr 2018 to Sunday 29 Apr 2018:

The start of this period will probably see generally more settled conditions across the UK, with southern parts seeing the best of the dry and sunny weather, although there will be a risk of fog and possible frost overnight, mainly in the north. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast detail going into the latter half of April, but there will probably be a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled periods. Temperatures overall are likely to remain below average although an increasing number of warmer days can still be expected. There are likely to be overnight frosts in the more settled spells and these should become restricted to the north of the UK as we head into late April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Apr 2018 to Saturday 14 Apr 2018:

The latter half of next week may be largely dry and bright in the far north, but it will be cold with some wintry showers at times. Elsewhere across the UK it will be unsettled with outbreaks of rain and hill snow for some, and it will be windy at times with a risk of gales. There will be some frost overnight in the north, but temperatures may be closer to average in the south. The following week will probably begin fairly unsettled, with strong winds and heavy rainfall possible for many. As we head towards mid-April, there is an increased chance of drier and more settled conditions, with a risk of fog in places overnight and frost in the north, but warmer days at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 16 Apr 2018 to Monday 30 Apr 2018:

There is very low confidence from mid-April onwards. Generally drier, more settled conditions could be dominant at first, then most likely a mixture of changeable or showery spells interspersed with drier periods. While temperatures are more likely to remain below average an increased number of warm days are likely, especially in any settled periods. Night frosts are likely to become more restricted to northern areas by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 6 Apr 2018 to Sunday 15 Apr 2018:

There is low confidence in the forecast through the period. There are signals that it will probably be largely dry for southeastern areas, but outbreaks of rain are more likely to spread north and east across many other areas, along with strong winds. Snow could also feature over northern hills. After the weekend signals remain mixed, but the most likely scenario is that it will be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain; keeping a risk of some hill snow in the north. Temperatures probably near average; rather warm at times in central and southeastern areas, but colder generally in the north with night frosts at times. It is most likely that it will be drier and more settled towards mid-April

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 1 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but a blocked or slowly progressive weather pattern looks most likely to be established by the start of the period with generally dry and settled conditions dominant across the UK. Mid-April could bring a return of more changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be below average, we are likely to see frosts more confine to northern areas and an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Apr 2018 to Monday 16 Apr 2018:

Whilst there is low confidence in the forecast through the period, the most likely scenario is for largely dry and warm conditions in the southeast and showers or longer spells of rain in the north and west through the weekend. There may be a tendency for this scenario to reverse early into next week with a bias for more settled conditions further north. It is likely that there will be marked variations in temperature across the UK, ranging from rather warm in central and southeastern areas to rather cold in the north with night frosts more likely. Next week the confidence becomes very low but a mild changeable pattern with showers or longer spells of rain seems most likely. After this a more blocked, settled regime may become more prevalent.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 1 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but a slower moving weather pattern looks most likely to be established by the start of the period with generally dry and settled conditions dominant across the UK. Mid-April could bring a return of more changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be below average, we are likely to see frosts more confine to northern areas and an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 8 Apr 2018 to Tuesday 17 Apr 2018:

Many northern areas will be dry and bright on Sunday and Monday although rain and hill snow could affect the far north for a time. Conversely, more southern parts are expected to remain changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, but with warmer temperatures than of late. This north/south split is likely to continue through the remainder of the period, with many northern areas having largely dry and bright weather with some sunshine. Rain or showers are most likely across southern parts, but with some drier and brighter spells here too. It will be breezy at times with below average temperatures expected across parts of the north with the risk of some overnight frost, but with rather warm temperatures possible in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 19 Apr 2018 to Thursday 3 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the extended outlook, but it is most likely that we will see changeable, showery weather interspersed with drier periods. Despite this, there is the chance of drier and more settled conditions dominating, especially at the start of the period. While signals suggest temperatures could be around or a little below average, we are likely to see frosts becoming confined to northern areas with an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 9 Apr 2018 to Wednesday 18 Apr 2018:

Showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect southern parts of the UK during next week, with the wettest weather most likely across the southwest at first. Northern areas however will probably be drier, brighter and more settled, although still a risk of some showers at times. It will also be breezy at times next week, with temperatures near or little below average, with night time frosts likely, especially in the north. The rest of the period then likely to see a mix of changeable spells of weather interspersed by drier and more settled conditions. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or a little below average, but some warmer spells are possible in any more prolonged settled weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 20 Apr 2018 to Friday 4 May 2018:

There is very low confidence in the forecast for the extended outlook, but there is a chance that we will see mainly dry and settled conditions, at least to begin with. There may be some changeable, showery spells at times, but these will still be interspersed with drier and more settled periods. While signals suggest temperatures could be around or a little below average, frosts are likely to be confined to northern areas, with an increasing number of warmer days during any settled spells. The end of April and into early May will bring an increased risk of wet and windy weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 10 Apr 2018 to Thursday 19 Apr 2018:

Next week will see showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern parts of the UK, perhaps heavy for a time in the southeast. Northern areas however will probably be drier and more settled, with the best of the sunshine in the west. Eastern parts of the UK will be breezy, with cloudier skies likely. Temperatures will be near average, and it will be feeling warm in the sunshine, apart from the eastern areas which will be feeling rather cold under the cloud. The following week will then probably see a mix of showery spells interspersed with drier and more settled conditions. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or a little below average, but some warmer spells are possible in any more prolonged settled weather towards mid-April.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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