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UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

It will be fairly unsettled through next week, with outbreaks of rain at times, heaviest in the west and southwest of the UK where gales are possible too. There is a risk of snow over northern hills, but temperatures will be around normal for the time of year with frost and fog possible overnight. The unsettled conditions will remain through the rest of the period, with further spells of rain, interspersed with brighter and showery interludes. There is a risk it could turn colder again with a greater chance of overnight frosts for all, but snow will mainly be confined to the north of the UK, and will mainly be falling across the hills and high ground, with outbreaks of rain more likely in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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UK Outlook for Friday 23 Mar 2018 to Friday 6 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period, and the forecast may change nearer the time. It will probably be unsettled and rather cold with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly in the north. It may then stay unsettled and become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This is likely to bring wetter conditions in the northwest and drier conditions in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around the average for the end of March and into early April. However, there remains a small chance that drier and colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Mar 2018 to Friday 23 Mar 2018:

Unsettled through next week, with outbreaks of rain at times, heaviest in the west and southwest of the UK, where gales are possible too. There is a risk of snow over northern hills, but temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with a risk of overnight frost at times in the north. The unsettled conditions will probably remain through the rest of the forecast period, with further spells of rain, interspersed with brighter and showery interludes. Snow will mainly be confined to the north of the UK, and will mainly be falling across the hills and high ground, with outbreaks of rain more likely in the south.There is a risk it could turn colder again with a greater chance of overnight frosts and perhaps wintry showers.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Mar 2018 to Saturday 7 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period, and the forecast may change nearer the time. It will probably be rather unsettled and rather cold with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring wetter conditions in the northwest and drier conditions in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around the average for the end of March and into early April. However, there remains a chance that drier and colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Mar 2018 to Saturday 24 Mar 2018:

On Thursday and Friday outbreaks of rain are likely to affect some western and southern areas, where gales are possible too. The rain is likely to gradually fragment as drier conditions already in the east and north, spread slowly westwards with time. Over the weekend slightly more settled conditions may develop across the whole country, but with an ongoing risk of rain and gales in the west and south while in the north and east some snow showers are possible. Rather cold for most, though perhaps nearer normal in the southwest at first. There's low confidence in the forecast detail through the rest of this period, but probably continuing unsettled and cold, with further rain or showers in all areas, and a risk of snow and widespread frost at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Mar 2018 to Sunday 8 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty throughout this period, and the forecast detail may change nearer the time. Conditions will probably start unsettled and rather cold with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly but not exclusively in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring wetter and windier conditions to the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the drier conditions. Temperatures will generally be mostly below the average for the end of March and into early April. However, there remains a chance that drier and much colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 16 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

For Friday, outbreaks of rain are likely to affect some northern and eastern areas, where gales are possible too. The rain is likely to gradually fragment as showery conditions already in the south and west, spread slowly eastwards with time. Over the weekend slightly more settled conditions may develop across the whole country, but with a risk of rain and gales returning to the west and south, while in the north and east some snow showers are possible. It may become rather cold for most, with frosts possible. It will be drier, although further wintry showers are likely in the east and northeast, and this is likely to continue towards the end of March. It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 26 Mar 2018 to Monday 9 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty throughout this period, and the forecast detail may change nearer the time. Conditions will probably start unsettled and rather cold, with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly but not exclusively in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring the wettest and windiest conditions to southern and central areas. Temperatures will generally be mostly below the average for the end of March and into early April, however, there remains a chance that drier and much colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Mar 2018 to Monday 9 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty throughout this period, and the forecast detail may change nearer the time. Conditions will probably start unsettled and rather cold, with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly but not exclusively in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring the wettest and windiest conditions to southern and central areas. Temperatures will generally be mostly below the average for the end of March and into early April, however, there remains a chance that drier and much colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

So it's going to be mild wet windy but cold and dry, thanks met office;)

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 It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

If that is what they mean then there is absolutely no indication of a ridge over Scandinavia, more like a marked trough!

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34 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

If that is what they mean then there is absolutely no indication of a ridge over Scandinavia, more like a marked trough!

‘Screaming’ easterly / northeasterly winds John.  ;)

Makes sense they’re seeing cold coming from the east with mention of snow showers are possible..

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4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

So it's going to be mild wet windy but cold and dry, thanks met office;)

They have also changed the wording a bit to say the wettest conditions will be in southern and central areas while yesterday they said wettest in the northwest. A very odd update with everything thrown in.

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UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Mar 2018 to Monday 26 Mar 2018:

Saturday will begin mainly cloudy with further rain in places. Snow is probable over high ground in the northeast and possibly to lower levels. South and southwestern parts may start off with brighter, showery conditions. Through the weekend it will probably become drier and brighter with the best of the brightness in the northwest, although with a risk of snow showers across the east and southeast. It may become rather cold for most, accentuated by the wind, with widespread frosts possible. Very uncertain into the following week, but with a high chance of colder than normal conditions. Probably mainly dry and bright at first, but becoming rather unsettled heading into the week, with snow possible across central and northern areas at times. Breezy with strong winds occasionally possible for all.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 10 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern appears most likely. This will most likely result in Atlantic systems affecting the southwest at times bringing brief incursions of milder air, with colder conditions tending to dominate across the east and northeast with wintry showers. There is a moderate risk of colder conditions developing more widely for a time, with a low risk of a spell of more significant snow. The wettest conditions are likely across southern and central areas. Any periods of more mobile conditions are likely to last for no more than a few days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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21 hours ago, johnholmes said:

 It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

If that is what they mean then there is absolutely no indication of a ridge over Scandinavia, more like a marked trough!

But all models do indeed show high pressure over scandanavia?

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21 hours ago, johnholmes said:

 It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

If that is what they mean then there is absolutely no indication of a ridge over Scandinavia, more like a marked trough!

The ridge looks transitory on the eps john - the scuro trough will become the main feature 

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ridge looks transitory on the eps john - the scuro trough will become the main feature 

Transient it maybe but its enough to pull the cold uppers into the UK.

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Transient it maybe but its enough to pull the cold uppers into the UK.

Yes indeed but the point being is that any ridging up there currently looks unsustainable so winds are expected to strengthen between the developing sceuro trough and mid Atlantic ridging 

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ridge looks transitory on the eps john - the scuro trough will become the main feature 

Yes that must be where the NE gales come from.

I note the Met keeping "gales and rain for the west and south" this weekend - I suspect this might be an unwillingness by Exeter to make a knee-jerk reaction to the models this morning - but if the ECM 12Z is on the same page as the 00Z, I think tomorrow they'll be talking less of rain and more of snow even by Saturday.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 10 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern appears most likely. This will most likely result in Atlantic systems affecting the southwest at times bringing brief incursions of milder air, with colder conditions tending to dominate across the east and northeast with wintry showers. There is a moderate risk of colder conditions developing more widely for a time, with a low risk of a spell of more significant snow. The wettest conditions are likely across southern and central areas. Any periods of more mobile conditions are likely to last for no more than a few days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I can live with that! :D

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UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 27 Mar 2018:

Very cold through Sunday and Monday with widespread, locally severe, frosts overnight. Quite frequent snow showers for a time across central, eastern and southeastern parts, with a few showers reaching the west. There is a low risk of more persistent snow moving west across southern and some central areas, this more likely on Sunday. The brightest and driest conditions in the northwest, but probably extending across other parts, with snow showers confined to the southeast. Windy for many, accentuating the cold feel. Increasingly uncertain later in the week, but with a high chance of colder than normal conditions, after a short anticyclonic spell with severe frosts in places. Probably becoming rather unsettled and sometimes windy from the west with rain possibly turning to snow as it moves northeastwards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 11 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern appears most likely. There will most likely be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems in the south and west and colder high pressure to the northeast. Mixed conditions are likely with probably wetter than average conditions across the south, while staying drier to the north. Further snow is possible, especially in the north and it will be windy at times. Any periods of more mobile conditions are likely to last for no more than a few days. Temperatures will likely be below average with further night frosts, and any milder interludes will probably be only brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 19 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 28 Mar 2018:

Monday will be another very cold day, it will also be largely dry and bright aside from a few snow showers. Gradually, from Tuesday onwards, wet, windy and milder weather is expected to make a return, particularly in the north where rain is likely to be preceded by a spell of snow. In the south it should remain dry, bright and cold with some sunshine. However, later in the week, wet and windy weather is likely to push across all parts before we see a return to colder and brighter weather by the weekend. Into the following week there is significant uncertainty in the forecast but a blocked or only slowly changing weather pattern seems most likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Mar 2018 to Thursday 12 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern is probable. There will most likely be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems affecting the south and west at times with colder air associated with high pressure out to the northeast. Mixed conditions are likely with wetter than average conditions expected across the south, while staying drier and perhaps colder to the north. Further snow is possible, especially in the north where it will also be windy at times. Temperatures will likely be below average with further night frosts, and any milder interludes will probably be only brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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