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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:

Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Not really the phrasing I would have used. Just bloody typical.

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2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Not really the phrasing I would have used. Just bloody typical.

Maybe not (from your POV), but with HP to the north and LP to the south, and therefore winds from the east bring in any disturbances from that direction, it's hardly surprising.

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Just now, Weather Boy said:

Maybe not (from your POV), but with HP to the north and LP to the south, and therefore winds from the east bring in any disturbances from that direction, it's hardly surprising.

Oh I'm aware it's hardly surprising. Just hoping for a surprisingly good easterly, which can happen.

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Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Oh I'm aware it's hardly surprising. Just hoping for a surprisingly good easterly, which can happen.

January 1987 probably best comparable and I think NW did OK then, did it not?  Not sure about February 1991 also.

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8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Not really the phrasing I would have used. Just bloody typical.

But then your in the centre of the UK as a whole not the North West, if they're talking about the whole of the UK. When they say the North West, I think they mean the North West of the UK, i.e the North West of Scotland and the Isles.

 

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10 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

 

Not really the phrasing I would have used. Just bloody typical.

But by the North west  do they mean your location or North West Britain. IE Scotland?.

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31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late November into December period in 2010.

 

Totally agree that's what my thoughts were usually the sit on the fence far longer the fact they even mention the snow word so far out is big eye opener.

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28 minutes ago, weirpig said:

But by the North west  do they mean your location or North West Britain. IE Scotland?.

Eastern and central Scotland does very well out of easterlies. The longer sea track picks up moisture even when a bit closer to the High pressure.

NW Scotland however ends up mostly dry.

Edited by Norrance
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UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

It will be turning much colder next week. Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas, where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through the rest of the week it will remain cold with an increased risk of ice, frost and snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east and across southern England. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Mar 2018 to Thursday 22 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to be very cold across the UK, with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the UK, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

No change there then happy days :yahoo:

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Is that all :nonono:

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

It will continue very cold through next week, with sunny spells. However, snow showers are likely in many places, heaviest and most frequent in eastern and some central areas. Some spells of more prolonged snow are likely, especially in the east, and particularly later next week, across southern areas. Some locally significant snowfalls are likely although details will remain uncertain until much nearer the event. Strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Widespread, locally severe frosts are likely. The cold weather will continue into early March, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather. Continuing windy at times, bringing marked wind chill and further snow in places. However the southwest may become milder at times but with further rain, sleet or snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Absolute CRACKER of an update - one of the best METO's I've ever read!

:yahoo:

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