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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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6 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but it's downgraded the words 'significant snowfall' , so it's probably going to be drier than first thought

There’s an increase chance snow for many Especially in  South East England that’s an upgrade .:D

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UK Outlook for Friday 23 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells as we head into next weekend with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most with wind from the east or northeast, possibly brisk in SE England. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east and southeast. Heading into the following week, there is an increased chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. Although the location and timing of any snowfall remains uncertain. However, some milder unsettled weather may still occur at times, especially in the west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2018 to Monday 19 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to stay cold for most with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of mainly easterly winds originating from continental Europe, which could bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall, especially in eastern and southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. As we head further into mid March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK, but this is currently very uncertain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Thank SS , interesting that the word “ significant “ snow remains omitted again and potential snowfall remains , guess the spread of enables keeps all parties guessing in the actual high placement .

 

 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Dry with sunny spells as we head into next weekend with overnight frosts, along with patchy mist and freezing fog. However, outbreaks of rain or drizzle along with some hill snow and stronger winds are possible at times across northwestern areas. Temperatures will turn colder for most with wind from the east or northeast, possibly brisk in SE England. The cold weather will be mainly dry initially with a chance of snow flurries in the east and southeast. Heading into the following week, there is an increased chance of snow for many, especially in the south and east. Although the location and timing of any snowfall remains uncertain. However, some milder unsettled weather may still occur at times, especially in the west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I see a subtle difference in the latest update as yesterday the text stated winds from the east to southeast, could this slight change in wind direction help when it comes to convection from the North Sea in the southeast?.

Edited by Mark wheeler
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UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 20 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will start drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

ttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 20 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will start drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March.

ttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

For me that sounds like they are backing something along the lines of the GFS. Raw brisk easterlies and significant snow in central, southern and eastern parts.

A milder SW and cold north then suggests mild SW'lies from an Azores low coming up against arctic air from a Greenland block.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Here is the medium range forecast in more detail :shok:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

24th Feb - 5th March
 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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32 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Here is the medium range forecast in more detail :shok:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

24th Feb - 5th March
 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

 

That looks to me South East England in for deep snow 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Cheers as . You can't really get a better update than that . Especially for my neck of the woods . Top draw ?

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56 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Here is the medium range forecast in more detail :shok:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

24th Feb - 5th March
 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

 

That is a lovely updated. Let's hope it continues ?. Good for IMBY . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Press Release from Met Office re upcoming cold spell:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/conditions-turning-colder-later-in-the-week

Conditions turning col

Conditions turning colder later in the week

19th February 2018

After a mild start to the week, conditions will get colder later in the week with wind chill playing a key part in the south.

The UK will start the week in a small sector of mild air with temperatures as high as 14°C in some parts of the west. These milder conditions will be short lived though as high pressure begins to dominate by the middle of the week, eventually allowing an easterly flow to bring in cold air from Eastern Europe over the weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Andy Page, said: “High pressure will become established across the UK by the middle of this week bringing settled weather for most, but also some frosty nights. However, as the high drifts east to be over Scandinavia by the weekend, it will allow colder air from Eastern Europe to be drawn towards us. The cold easterly wind will bring an element of wind chill which will make it feel colder in the south.”

There are signs that this cold spell is likely to last well into next week with possibly even colder air from Russia moving across the UK. Although there is a very low risk of snow this week because of the dry nature of the air, this could change the other side of the weekend.

Dr Thomas Waite, of Public Health England’s Extreme Events team, said: “With the days feeling a little longer and lighter it can be easy to forget that cold weather can still kill.

“Over 65s, those with conditions like heart and lung diseases and young children, are all at particular risk in cold weather as their bodies struggle to cope when temperatures fall. So before it gets cold check on friends, family and neighbours, who may be at risk and make sure they’re heating homes to at least 18C, see if they need any particular help or just someone to talk to and keep an eye on the Met Office’s forecasts and warnings. Remember keeping warm will help keep you well.”

The incursion of these cold conditions is linked to a meteorological event that has happened high up in the Stratosphere over the North Pole. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event occurred last week which after a lag period can have implications to our weather in Northern Europe.

Prof Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, explained: “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January and last week we saw a dramatic rise in air temperature of around 50°C, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, at around 30km above the North Pole. This warming results from a breakdown of the usual high-altitude westerly winds and it often leads to a switch in our weather: with cold easterly conditions more likely to dominate subsequent UK weather.”

These events are well reproduced and can be predicted in our computer models. There are signs that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK that could last into March.

 

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so " significant " is back in the text , make no bones that is very pleasing to see from an IMBY POV , they had removed it friday . Still a long way to go for finer details to be nailed on , I just hope we do land a 1-25 1-10 year event

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Met Office loosely blending GFS and ECM ideas it would seem, a stew full of potential so here's hoping we get the best out of the ingredients :cold-emoji:.

Would they not be using MOGREPS which happens to be a blend of the two? MOGREPS goes out to 7 days

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UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:

Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:

At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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