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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be drier and more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder conditions are likely to be short-lived and may bring with them a risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to stay colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That has to be the goal doesn't it?

Embedded Easterly in place with the Atlantic pushing in snowy fronts against the block.

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Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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What I have noticed is, the 30 dayer quite often changes wording every other day. But, It's been the same wording for quite a few days now. Quite unusual and confidence must be pretty high on that very cold reaching us. 

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wow - they finally realised that systems will not be just ‘bumping into cold air’ - took them too long ! 

Shame they have taken the battle ground scenario out the text though!!

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On 05/02/2018 at 12:13, karyo said:

This update has remained unchanged for several days and it is in contrast to what the models are showing. I wonder if there will be a notable backtrack tomorrow.

The answer on Wednesday afternoon is a big NO :yahoo:

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Feb 2018 to Thursday 22 Feb 2018:

Through mid February it will remain unsettled and generally cold. Tuesday will see rain, sleet and snow pushing in from the west, followed by sunshine and wintry showers in the northwest. Winds will be strong and gusty with gales in places. Further wet weather will arrive through Wednesday bringing slightly less cold air, but snow and ice remains a risk in northern areas. The rest of the week will continue to see a mix of slightly less cold interludes with rain, strong winds and some snow and ice, followed by colder but brighter spells with wintry showers. Winds will often be strong, giving a significant wind chill. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled with more prolonged drier, colder and frosty weather, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 23 Feb 2018 to Friday 9 Mar 2018:

Through the remainder of February it will stay cold but the weather may be drier and more settled with widespread frost overnight. This could last for a while, with a greater chance of easterly winds which will bring some very cold weather at times. Into early March, the cold weather is likely to continue, although we may see some short-lived changeable spells bringing the risk of snow in places. With the cold weather persisting, temperatures are likely to remain below normal throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Feb 2018 to Thursday 22 Feb 2018:

Through mid February it will remain unsettled and generally cold. Tuesday will see rain, sleet and snow pushing in from the west, followed by sunshine and wintry showers in the northwest. Winds will be strong and gusty with gales in places. Further wet weather will arrive through Wednesday bringing slightly less cold air, but snow and ice remains a risk in northern areas. The rest of the week will continue to see a mix of slightly less cold interludes with rain, strong winds and some snow and ice, followed by colder but brighter spells with wintry showers. Winds will often be strong, giving a significant wind chill. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled with more prolonged drier, colder and frosty weather, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

They've removed the mention of easterly winds in the later part of the forecast.

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21 minutes ago, Don said:

They've removed the mention of easterly winds in the later part of the forecast.

Look at the longer term forecasts though.......will see very cold weather etc.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Feb 2018 to Friday 23 Feb 2018:

Through mid February it will remain unsettled and generally colder than average for the time of year. After a cold and dry start in the northeast, wet and windy weather will arrive through Wednesday bringing slightly less cold air, but snow and ice remains a risk in northern areas. Gales are probable in the west and southwest. The rest of the week will continue to see a mix of slightly less cold interludes with rain, strong winds and some snow and ice, followed by colder but brighter spells with wintry showers. Winds will often be strong, giving a significant wind chill. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled with more prolonged drier, colder and frosty weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

Through the remainder of February it will stay cold but the weather may be drier and more settled with widespread frost overnight. This could last for a while, with a greater chance of easterly winds which will bring some very cold weather at times. Into early March, the cold weather is likely to continue, although we may see some short-lived changeable spells bringing the risk of snow in places. With the cold weather persisting, temperatures are likely to remain below normal throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Feb 2018 to Saturday 24 Feb 2018:

Thursday, Friday and next weekend are likely to be windy with frequent showers. Wind chill will make it feel rather cold but at first it will be less cold than many recent days, so showers will only fall as snow on northern high ground. The wind is likely to be particularly strong in the west and the southwest, with gales likely on coasts and hills. There is a risk of a spell of more persistent rain and milder weather in the south and south east developing on Friday. However, in the north and west, it will become colder again with an increased risk of wintry showers. Into the following week, the weather across the whole UK may turn more settled with prolonged drier, colder and frosty weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Sunday 11 Mar 2018:

The end of February is likely to stay cold but often dry and settled with widespread frost overnight. This weather could last into early March, with a greater chance of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times. The cold weather could well continue into the second week of March, although we may see some short-lived changeable spells bringing the risk of snow in places.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Sunday 11 Mar 2018:

The end of February is likely to stay cold but often dry and settled with widespread frost overnight. This weather could last into early March, with a greater chance of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times. The cold weather could well continue into the second week of March, although we may see some short-lived changeable spells bringing the risk of snow in places.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The thing that is troubling me about these updates is that this ‘potential’ spell of very cold weather is not getting any closer.  At the beginning of last week it was through mid February and now it’s  end of February into March?  Experience tells me when this happens it’s not good.

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13 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Isn't that because this forecast period is dynamic - the starting point moves forward a day, every day??!

Yes, but the potential easterly does not seem to be moving forward with the forecast?  That’s the way I read it anyway.

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29 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, but the potential easterly does not seem to be moving forward with the forecast?  That’s the way I read it anyway.

Given the background signals, there is a significant risk of a very cold easterly developing, as such they need to include this in their forecasts as a real possiblity, it will move forward once an easterly gets a sizeable agreement across the model output in the earlier timeframes. Until then it will be included in the extended outlook as a possible outcome. Given that the SSW was well predicted from around the end of January then the risk associated would start from the point where the SSW would occur given the uncertainties over the response time we would see. Hence why the easterly solution has been including in the extended forecasts for a fair while now.

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UK Outlook for Friday 16 Feb 2018 to Sunday 25 Feb 2018:

Friday will be an unsettled day with showers for many, it will also be quite windy which will give a cold feel, particuarly in the north where showers may be wintry, especially over high ground. There is a risk of a spell of more persistent rain and perhaps milder weather in the south and south east developing on Friday. Unsettled conditions are then likely to prevail into the weekend with a mixture of sunshine and showers in many parts. Showers are expected to be heaviest in the north and west and there may also be snow in the north at times. As we head through the following week, the weather across the whole UK is likely to gradually turn more settled with prolonged drier, colder and frosty conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 26 Feb 2018 to Monday 12 Mar 2018:

The end of February is likely to stay cold but often dry and settled with widespread frost overnight. This weather could last into early March, with a greater chance of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall. Heading through the second week of March there are indications that conditions may become more unsettled and somewhat less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Feb 2018 to Monday 26 Feb 2018:

The weekend will probably see a good deal of fine weather, especially across England and Wales, but more changeable across northern parts with further wintry showers. Into next week, we will see the changeable pattern continuing in the north and west, with frontal systems interspersed with showery periods, with perhaps some snow to low-levels at times, but mainly confined to northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter weather will be across southern and eastern parts of the UK through next week, with the increasing risk of overnight frost. Temperatures will probably still be near or a little below the average. The drier, settled and colder conditions look set to continue towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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