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I think it’s a great outlook and probably the best of the winter so far. 

We may not get a continuous easterly, but to have the cold in place with frontal systems bumping into it, must be a better recipe for more widespread snow events.

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So this is what Exeter actually published UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019: Sunday will be cold across the UK, but for many it will be dry; brightest in the southeast

Yes I have just spent some time comparing their forecast issued on their web site at 0025 with the two latest Fax charts for Tuesday. They seemed at odds and this forecast seems to suggest what I beli

In all the years of model watching 12-15 years, I cannot ever remember UK Met trawling a deep cold spell so far ahead, so consistently, and for such duration after its arrival. Not even the late Novem

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The set up currently doesn't look like bringing a sustained convective type easterly. However the bank of cold air is likely to stay wedged over mainland Europe with the UK at the meeting point between frontal systems from the Atlantic and that colder air.

The cold air originally comes in from the projected set up we're seeing now and will be topped up from time to time as pressure is likely to stay high to the ne.

The UKMO can't be more exact with detail this far out because  the strength of any blocking to the ne is difficult to pin down this far out.

 

 

I have a feeling  the GFS is under playing the block to the East  im not sure the front will get that far east.    If thats the case then i expect more influence from a Easterly  feed. 

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The set up currently doesn't look like bringing a sustained convective type easterly. However the bank of cold air is likely to stay wedged over mainland Europe with the UK at the meeting point between frontal systems from the Atlantic and that colder air.

The cold air originally comes in from the projected set up we're seeing now and will be topped up from time to time as pressure is likely to stay high to the ne.

The UKMO can't be more exact with detail this far out because  the strength of any blocking to the ne is difficult to pin down this far out.

 

 

Thank you .:)

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

That update is potentially the ideal setup for my location and others in the spine of the country with altitude especially.

 

No surprises there then, not that im bitter mind:rofl:

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2 hours ago, abbie123 said:

No mention of easterly so where is cold coming from?

To be fair they do not state where the cold is coming from ? They just say that weather systems moving in from the north west and moving into colder air . Witch says to me that the cold has come from the east and precipitation turning to snow ❄️ 

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Feb 2018 to Thursday 15 Feb 2018:

Outbreaks of snow and coastal rain will spread eastwards across England and Wales on Tuesday, followed by sunshine and scattered wintry showers, particularly in the west. Many may then be drier on Wednesday, however further rain and snow may arrive from the northwest later. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as frontal systems bump in to the cold air across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west, although where winds are lighter overnight there will be some severe frost. Towards the middle of the month, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Can't really grumble at that. I wonder if the HP projected over or close to our west mid month will start heading towards the GIN corridor as the vortex splits...allowing a reload N/NE'ly type...watch this space...

Overall I think Feb is going to be the best nationwide month cold wise for many a year.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Feb 2018 to Friday 16 Feb 2018:

Cold and becoming largely dry on Wednesday with bright or sunny spells, but also the chance of some wintry flurries. Perhaps another frontal system arriving during Thursday bringing a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, although cold with frost and patchy freezing fog ahead of this. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the middle of the month, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 16 Feb 2018 to Friday 2 Mar 2018:

Through the middle of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This may last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. Later in February and into March it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Feb 2018 to Friday 2 Mar 2018:

Through the middle of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This may last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. Later in February and into March it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Eh up! Met O seeing a response to the impending SSW  now!

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Feb 2018 to Friday 2 Mar 2018:

Through the middle of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This may last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. Later in February and into March it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This is braziliant and fantaboulastic! :yahoo:

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UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:

After a cold and frosty start on Thursday, a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to move slowly southeastwards through the day and possibly into Friday. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast across the UK. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 9 Feb 2018 to Sunday 18 Feb 2018:

A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to make erratic progress across the UK on Friday, with colder conditions and wintry showers following. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast, with the driest conditions in the southeast. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In-between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be widespread overnight frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 19 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Feb 2018 to Monday 19 Feb 2018:

Saturday is expected to start cold, dry and largely fine, although a little hill snow is possible at first in the southeast. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected in the northwest later, moving southeast through Sunday with colder, showery conditions then following. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump into the cold air and stall across the UK. In-between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be widespread overnight frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Feb 2018 to Monday 19 Feb 2018:

Saturday is expected to start cold, dry and largely fine, although a little hill snow is possible at first in the southeast. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected in the northwest later, moving southeast through Sunday with colder, showery conditions then following. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump into the cold air and stall across the UK. In-between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be widespread overnight frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

This update has remained unchanged for several days and it is in contrast to what the models are showing. I wonder if there will be a notable backtrack tomorrow.

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UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 20 Feb 2018:

Early rain will clear the southeast on Sunday, with a chance it may return in the south for a time. Elsewhere, brisk westerly winds, with gales in the north, will bring frequent wintry showers, mainly in the west and northwest. Thereafter, it will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump into the cold air and stall across the UK. In-between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be widespread overnight frost. From the middle of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather with a higher chance of easterly winds, while overnight frosts become more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Monday 12 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 21 Feb 2018:

Monday will be a cold day with frequent wintry showers, mainly in the north and west, and with some sunshine for eastern areas. It will be windy, with gales in the northwest, and also a risk of gales in the south for a time on Tuesday when an Atlantic frontal system spreads slightly milder air and outbreaks of rain eastwards, clearing late in the day. Through the rest of the week frontal systems will bring briefly less cold conditions with rain, hill snow and strong winds, followed by brighter weather with wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather, with a higher chance of easterly winds. It will be generally colder than normal with widespread overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be drier and more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder conditions are likely to be short-lived and may bring with them a risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to stay colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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