Meto Uk Further Outlook

[egret]

I do love it when we get these comments on what the man at Exeter really means. Good job he never comes on here to see some of the comments about his handywork.

Yes I suppose we do tend to hang on, and hence examine every word - mainly because the forecasts do not give sufficient detail or explanation to enable us to understand (from a simple reading of their words) just what they believe is going on and the probability of certain outcomes.

 

Some have criticised the wordiness of Tamara's posts in MoD, but I really appreciate the explanation she gives to support her summaries. I am left with a clearer understanding of 'the why behind the what'. For this reason I read other posts (such as those of JH and Feb Blizzard) which help point me to trends or details which I would certainly have overlooked otherwise.

 

I suppose in this regard we might well be guilty of misusing the Met Office's work - but for one very good reason, we wish to develop our understanding as a community of enthusiasts.

[feb1991blizzard]

Changed again now, the chance of the strat having an impact now receding fast me thinks.

[Peter H]

Changed again now, the chance of the strat having an impact now receding fast me thinks.

 

Sadly, this winter's gone pear shaped now.

 

We're now rapidly approaching the half way stage of the season and nothing at all so far. Time is running out for this one.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Jan 2015 to Friday 16 Jan 2015:

A cold and fine start across southern and eastern UK on Wednesday, but heavy rain and gales across the northwest will spread southeastwards to reach most parts by Thursday. This will clear the southeast late on Thursday with brighter, showery weather following. These showers will be wintry on hills and may merge to form longer spells of rain at times. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between unsettled conditions with spells of rain and colder, clearer, more showery interludes. The drier and brighter periods may be brief, with the best of these across southern and eastern England. It will remain fairly windy, with gales at times mainly across northern Britain. Temperatures will vary day to day, but will tend to average out slightly above normal overall

 

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jan 2015 to Saturday 31 Jan 2015:

It is most likely to remain unsettled and often windy for much of the rest of January. Periods of dull weather with rain will be interspersed with brief colder, clearer showery spells and frosty nights. Some showers may fall as snow, mainly across northern hills. The drier and more settled weather may become more dominant across the south towards the end of the period, but confidence on this remains low at present.

Updated at: 1421 on Fri 02 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Jan 2015 to Saturday 17 Jan 2015:

Wet and windy weather will clear southeastwards on Thursday, with brighter, cooler, showery weather following. These showers heavy at times, with a risk of hail and thunder, and wintry on hills in the north. Brisk winds across the UK, will be strong with possible gales in the north. Temperatures will be above average in the southeast at first, otherwise slightly below normal. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between unsettled conditions with spells of rain, and colder, clearer, more showery interludes. The drier and brighter periods may be brief, with the best of these across southern and eastern England. Windy at times, with the risk of severe gales. Temperatures will vary, often a little above average in unsettled spells, but generally a touch below normal in the clearer, brighter conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Jan 2015 to Sunday 1 Feb 2015:

It is most likely to remain unsettled and often windy for much of the rest of January. Periods of dull weather with rain will be interspersed with brief colder, clearer showery spells and frosty nights. Some showers may fall as snow, mainly across northern hills. The drier and more settled weather may become more dominant across the south towards the end of the period, but confidence on this remains low at present.

Updated at: 1431 on Sat 03 Jan 2015

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Jan 2015 to Monday 19 Jan 2015:

Rain clearing southwards on Saturday followed by brighter, colder, showery conditions through the rest of the weekend, showers most frequent in the north and west, wintry over hills, and to lower levels in the north. Windy, with severe gales and possible storm force winds in the far north at first. Mild in the south at first, otherwise rather cold with overnight frost. Another bout of wet and windy weather is likely to spread eastwards across the UK early next week. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between spells of wet and windy weather, and colder, brighter, more showery interludes. Often windy, with gales in places, the risk of severe gales in exposed areas. Temperatures will vary, often above average in unsettled spells, and generally below normal with the clearer conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 3 Feb 2015:

The most likely scenario is for conditions through the latter part of January onwards into early February to remain unsettled and often windy with periods of milder but dull and wet weather, interspersed by brief clearer but colder and showery spells with frosty nights. Towards the end of this period drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant across southern Britain.

Updated at: 1518 on Mon 05 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 20 Jan 2015:

A bright, chilly start to Sunday with some showers, these falling as snow over the hills and to low levels in the north. However, these showers will gradually ease away in advance of an area of rain that will push into northern parts later, perhaps giving snow on its leading edge. This rain will then likely push southeastwards on Monday with colder and showery conditions once again following into northwestern parts. Generally windy, with a risk of gales, especially northern parts. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between spells of wet and windy weather, and colder, brighter, more showery interludes. Often windy, with gales in places, the risk of severe gales in exposed areas. Temperatures will vary, often above average in unsettled spells, and generally below normal with the clearer conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Jan 2015 to Wednesday 4 Feb 2015:

The most likely scenario is for conditions through the latter part of January onwards into early February to remain unsettled and often windy with periods of milder but dull and wet weather, interspersed by brief clearer but colder and showery spells with frosty nights. Towards the end of this period, drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant across southern Britain.

Updated at: 1444 on Tue 06 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Jan 2015 to Wednesday 21 Jan 2015:

Cloud and rain, heavy at times, at first on Monday will move south-eastwards, allowing clearer, colder and showery conditions to follow into north-western parts. The heaviest and most frequent showers will be in the north and west, with some southern and eastern parts remaining dry. Showers will be wintry over higher ground, and possibly to low levels in the north. Generally windy, with a risk of gales or severe gales, especially northern parts. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between spells of wet and windy weather, and colder, brighter, more showery interludes. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places. Temperatures will vary, often milder in unsettled spells, and generally cold in the clearer conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Jan 2015 to Thursday 5 Feb 2015:

The most likely scenario is for conditions through the latter part of January onwards into early February to remain unsettled and often windy with periods of milder but dull and wet weather, interspersed by brief clearer but colder and showery spells with frosty nights. Towards the end of this period, drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant, especially across southern Britain.

Updated at: 1417 on Wed 07 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jan 2015 to Monday 26 Jan 2015:

Remaining unsettled, showery and rather cold through Saturday. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west and falling as snow across the hills, with wintry showers to low levels at times in the north. There will be some drier and brighter weather too, particularly across sheltered eastern parts, however there is a risk of more prolonged rain for a time in the south. It will be windy for most areas, with the risk of gales in the north and west. A quieter and drier interlude will likely develop on Sunday. The following week will see further changeable conditions, with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by clearer, colder and showery interludes, bringing a risk of frost and snow at times.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 10 Feb 2015:

The current signal is for the latter part of January and also early February to remain generally unsettled. This will bring periods of mild, but also dull, wet and often windy weather, interspersed by clearer, colder and showery spells with frosty nights. However towards the end of this period, drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant, especially across the south.

Updated at: 1435 on Mon 12 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Jan 2015 to Sunday 1 Feb 2015:

Cloud and rain across western parts, locally heavy and falling as snow over the hills, will make uncertain eastward progress through Friday with some eastern parts remaining dry throughout, and some drier weather perhaps following to western parts later. It may become drier and brighter across many parts on Saturday, but frosty overnight. After a cold start on Sunday. it may well become less cold from the west later in the weekend with temperatures returning to nearer normal for many as more unsettled conditions return from the west. Thereafter, the changeable conditions look set to prevail with spells of wet and windy conditions, especially in the northwest, interspersed by brighter, colder, showery interludes with some snow possible. Temperatures are likely to vary markedly day to day.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Feb 2015 to Monday 16 Feb 2015:

The unsettled conditions will probably continue across most parts of the UK during the first half of February, particularly for northern and western parts. Southern areas are probably most likely to experience some lengthier dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently signalled to be rather below normal, which will bring a risk of night-time frosts, particularly across southern parts, and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and perhaps snow in places.

Updated at: 1428 on Sun 18 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Jan 2015 to Wednesday 4 Feb 2015:

Cloudy start to Monday across southern parts with outbreaks of rain, these locally heavy. Clearer and colder conditions, with wintry showers in the northwest, will filter south through the day, likely reaching all areas by evening with frost and ice patches overnight. These brighter conditions with sunny spells and wintry showers in the northwest will continue through Tuesday, before rain, stronger winds and milder temperatures spread into the northwest later. Thereafter, changeable conditions look set to prevail with spells of wet and sometimes very windy conditions, especially in the northwest, interspersed with brighter, colder, showery interludes. These colder interludes will bring the risk of snow, especially over higher ground in the north. The best drier, brighter intervals will likely be in the southeast. Temperatures will vary markedly day to day.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Feb 2015 to Thursday 19 Feb 2015:

The unsettled conditions will probably continue across most parts of the UK during the first half of February, particularly for northern and western parts. Southern areas are probably most likely to experience some lengthier dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently signalled to be generally near normal, but there will be some colder spells accompanied by night-time frosts and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow at times.

Updated at: 1522 on Wed 21 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Peter H]

UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Feb 2015 to Thursday 19 Feb 2015:

The unsettled conditions will probably continue across most parts of the UK during the first half of February, particularly for northern and western parts. Southern areas are probably most likely to experience some lengthier dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently signalled to be generally near normal, but there will be some colder spells accompanied by night-time frosts and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow at times.

Updated at: 1522 on Wed 21 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

What's new

[Peter H]

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Jan 2015 to Wednesday 4 Feb 2015:

Cloudy start to Monday across southern parts with outbreaks of rain, these locally heavy. Clearer and colder conditions, with wintry showers in the northwest, will filter south through the day, likely reaching all areas by evening with frost and ice patches overnight. These brighter conditions with sunny spells and wintry showers in the northwest will continue through Tuesday, before rain, stronger winds and milder temperatures spread into the northwest later. Thereafter, changeable conditions look set to prevail with spells of wet and sometimes very windy conditions, especially in the northwest, interspersed with brighter, colder, showery interludes. These colder interludes will bring the risk of snow, especially over higher ground in the north. The best drier, brighter intervals will likely be in the southeast. Temperatures will vary markedly day to day.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

Again what's new. Just the same old

[Gibby]

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 to Thursday 5 Feb 2015:

 

A cold but bright start to Tuesday with patchy frost in the east and southeast. Further to the north and west conditions will be cloudier with some rain ahead of a more active band of rain that moves southeastwards through Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. This brings with it stronger winds, perhaps gales to the far northwest, and also milder temperatures. Drier conditions should then follow across the UK on Wednesday before we then move into a potentially very disturbed spell of weather with gales or severe gales in many places. Turning somewhat colder with an increasing risk of snow in the north. Temperatures will vary markedly day to day, and will be cold at times with overnight frosts.

 

UK Outlook for Friday 6 Feb 2015 to Friday 20 Feb 2015:

 

It looks most likely that unsettled conditions will continue across of the UK and that conditions in western parts will see slightly wetter than average conditions. The east is expected to see conditions closer to average for the time of year and be more likely to experience some dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently expected to be near normal in the most-part, but will perhaps we slightly colder in parts of the north and west. However, some colder spells are still possible at times accompanied by night-time frosts and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow

 

Cold zonality reigns supreme from UKMO today.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Gibby

[Peter H]

I don't think that further outlook has changed all winter.

Seems to be virtually the same every time I look at it

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Jan 2015 to Friday 6 Feb 2015:

Cloudy at first with a band of rain moving southeastwards through Wednesday morning before clearing away. This brings with it stronger winds, perhaps gales to the north, and also milder temperatures. Drier and colder conditions in the northwest should then follow across the rest of the UK, with wintry showers falling over the northwest. Thereafter we move into a potentially very disturbed spell of weather bringing periods of rain with gales or severe gales in many places, but mostly to north and western parts. Turning somewhat colder with an increasing risk of snow in the north of the UK. Temperatures will vary markedly from day to day, and will be cold at times with overnight frosts.

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 7 Feb 2015 to Saturday 21 Feb 2015:

It looks most likely that unsettled conditions will continue across most of the UK and that western parts will see slightly wetter than average conditions. The east is expected to see conditions closer to average for the time of year and be more likely to experience some dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently expected to be near normal in the most-part, but will perhaps be slightly colder in parts of the north and northwest. However, some colder spells are still possible at times accompanied by night-time frosts and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow .

Updated at: 1431 on Fri 23 Jan 2015

 

http://www.metoffice...eather/forecast