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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Dec 2010 to Tuesday 21 Dec 2010:

A mainly dry start is expected but with mist likely and perhaps occasional drizzle. Bright spells are also possible, especially in central and southern parts. Patches of freezing fog and frost are also likely. Generally dry conditions are likely to continue from the midpart of next week, but in the northeast there is an increased chance of rain, sleet and perhaps some hill snow. Towards the following weekend, more unsettled conditions are expected with an increased chance of sleet or snow, occasionally heavy, across the UK. Light winds are expected at first, strengthening during next week, with gales possible in the east. Temperatures are likely to remain cold or very cold throughout the forecast period apart from western areas that may see near normal temperatures at first.

Updated: 1219 on Tue 7 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 13 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 22 Dec 2010:

A mainly dry start to next week is expected, but with the risk of occasional rain, sleet and perhaps hill snow in the east. Into the latter half the first week and into the second week, there is an increasing chance of snow showers in northern and eastern parts of the UK, with some significant accumulations likely. Best of any dry and sunny weather likely towards southern and western parts of the UK, although even here some snow is possible. Winds are likely to be light at first, but will become strong towards the end of the first week, with perhaps a risk of gales in eastern parts. Temperatures will be cold or very cold throughout, with widespread, locally severe, overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches developing in places.

Updated: 1142 on Wed 8 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Dec 2010 to Thursday 23 Dec 2010:

A mostly dry start, but with the risk of occasional rain, sleet and perhaps hill snow in the east. Over next weekend and into the second week, there is an increasing chance of snow showers in northern and eastern parts, sometimes heavy and with locally significant accumulations. Southern and western parts of the UK are likely to see the best of any bright weather, although even here some snow is possible. Winds will be generally light becoming strong towards the end of the first week, with perhaps a risk of gales in eastern parts. Temperatures will be generally very cold with widespread, locally severe, overnight frost and some freezing fog patches developing in places. However, there is small chance of becoming less cold in the south and west later.

Updated: 1149 on Thu 9 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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hi

Before the new update posted by Stu I'll drop this in.

Some of you may remember discussions about what modles UK Met used at differing time scales. Its not just as precise as I hoped for but , from the horses mouth so to speak, I got this reply to my e mail to a contact.

For the T+0 to T+36 we use our own regional mode – NAE (North Atlantic & European), although we can tweak it if ECMWF and French are indicating something else.

For T+48 to T+84 we use our global model, with input for most other National Met Service global models, such as France, Germany. ECMWF, GFS, Canadian, Japanese, etc.

For T+96 onwards we tend to use the Ensemble forecasts for ECMWF, GFS and our own UK model. This is where the model is tweaked very slightly at the T+0 stage and run forward to se if the minor tweaks have any impact on the outcome later on. It is a measure of the predictability of the atmosphere at that time.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Dec 2010 to Friday 24 Dec 2010:

A mostly dry start, but an increasing risk of wintry showers in the north and east by the end of next week. This pattern looks set to continue over the weekend, with snow showers in northern and eastern parts, perhaps giving some locally significant accumulations in places. Southern and western regions of the UK are likely to see the best of any bright weather, although snow showers cannot be ruled out even here. Winds look set to become strong towards the end of the first week, with perhaps gales in some northern and eastern parts. Temperatures will be generally very cold with widespread overnight frost, freezing fog and a risk of icy stretches developing in places.

Updated: 1142 on Fri 10 Dec

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Dec 2010 to Saturday 25 Dec 2010::whistling:

An unsettled and cloudy start on Thursday with rain and hill snow sweeping south followed by sunny intervals and wintry showers. These showers soon turning mostly to snow, especially in exposed northern, eastern and western parts and persisting over the weekend. Some significant accumulations are likely in places and with strong winds at times, there is a significant risk of drifting. Temperatures will be generally very cold with widespread overnight frost and icy stretches developing in places. During the following week there will be further wintry showers and freezing fog may become a hazard. Some southern parts becoming less cold with a risk of heavy rain, particularly in the southwest. However, the southerly extent of snow or northerly extent of rain is very uncertain at the moment.

Updated: 1149 on Sat 11 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Friday 17 Dec 2010 to Sunday 26 Dec 2010:

Very cold and unsettled on Friday and through the weekend, with strong northwesterly winds bringing frequent snow showers to many places. Some significant accumulations are likely in places leading to some disruption, and with strong winds in places, there is a risk of drifting leading to temporary blizzard conditions. It will be very cold with icy stretches and widespread overnight frosts, these perhaps becoming locally severe through the first weekend as winds fall lighter. During the following week, it will stay mostly cold or very cold with further wintry showers in places and the risk of freezing fog. There is however a chance that some southern and perhaps central parts may become less cold for a time, but with a risk of rain, sleet and snow, particularly in the southwest.

Updated: 1147 on Sun 12 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Dec 2010 to Monday 27 Dec 2010:

Further snow showers, heavy at times, are likely in most places over the weekend, with some potentially significant accumulations. Southern and southwestern parts of the UK look to be particularly at risk. It may also be windy at times. During the following week, the unsettled and wintry conditions are expected to continue with further snowfall mainly in the north, and rain more likely in southern parts. From Friday (24th), it is expected to remain unsettled with snow showers most likely to continue in the north of the UK. Temperatures, while being generally cold, may become less cold and even nearer normal in the south and west. However, it will still be cold enough for overnight frost and ice.

Updated: 1157 on Mon 13 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

So maybe a white xmas in the north

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UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Dec 2010 to Tuesday 28 Dec 2010:

Further snow, widespread ice and severe overnight frosts are likely in most parts of the UK, especially England and Wales. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected as showers merge to become more persistent in places. Windward coasts of southern England and Wales may see showers of rain or sleet at times, presenting an ice risk during overnight periods. Sheltered parts of western Scotland and Wales may become drier during the week. The unsettled and wintry weather is expected to continue across the UK towards the Christmas weekend, remaining cold for most with a risk of further snowfall in places, but perhaps becoming less-cold in the south for a time with a chance of some rain or sleet, with temperatures perhaps returning to near-normal here.

Updated: 1213 on Tue 14 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 20 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 29 Dec 2010:

Further snow, widespread ice and severe overnight frosts are likely in most parts of the UK during the first week. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected, especially near coasts. Windward coasts of southern England and Wales may see showers of rain or sleet at times, presenting an overnight ice risk as temperatures fall below freezing. Some sheltered central parts of the UK may stay dry. The unsettled and wintry weather is expected to continue across the north of the country later next and into the following week, remaining cold with further snowfall likely in places, especially eastern areas. Perhaps becoming less cold in the south with temperatures returning to near-normal and a chance of some rain or sleet.

Updated: 1105 on Wed 15 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Sorry I late been busy

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Dec 2010 to Thursday 30 Dec 2010:

Further snow, widespread ice and severe overnight frosts are likely in most parts of the UK during the first week. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected, especially near coasts. Windward coasts of southern England and Wales may see showers of rain or sleet at times, presenting an overnight ice risk as temperatures fall below freezing. Some sheltered central parts of the UK may stay dry. The unsettled and wintry weather is expected to continue across the north of the country later next and into the following week, remaining cold with further snowfall likely in places, especially eastern areas. Perhaps becoming less cold in the south with temperatures returning to near or slightly below normal and a chance of some rain or sleet.

Updated: 1218 on Thu 16 Dec 2010

Still looking for some of us for a white xmas :drinks:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Dec 2010 to Friday 31 Dec 2010:

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at times. Over parts of southern England it may become less cold and the snow may turn to rain at times. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain generally dry. The unsettled, windy and at times wintry weather is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably becoming less cold in the south with temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly falling as rain.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Dec 2010 to Saturday 1 Jan 2011:

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at times. Over parts of southern England it may become less cold and the snow may turn to rain at times. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain generally dry. The unsettled, windy and at times wintry weather is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably becoming less cold in the south and west with temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly falling as rain.

Updated: 1129 on Sat 18 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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ok here go

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Dec 2010 to Sunday 2 Jan 2011:

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK for the first few days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at times. Over parts of southern England it is likely to become less cold and the snow will probably turn to rain at times beyond the Christmas weekend. Some central and northern parts of the UK may remain generally dry. The unsettled weather with rain, sleet or snow at times is expected to continue across the north and perhaps the east of the country later next week and probably into the following week. Probably becoming less cold across much of the UK later in the period, with temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly falling as rain.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 19 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Dec 2010 to Monday 3 Jan 2011:

Continuing cold with further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog in most parts of the UK for the first few days. Locally significant accumulations of snow can be expected at times. Over parts of southwestern UK it is likely to become less cold and the snow will probably turn to rain at times beyond the Christmas weekend. This unsettled weather with rain, sleet or snow at times is then expected to spread slowly and erratically north and eastwards later next week and into the following week. Probably becoming less cold across much of the UK later in the period, with temperatures returning to nearer normal and precipitation mainly falling as rain.

Updated: 1157 on Mon 20 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Jan 2011 to Thursday 13 Jan 2011:

A band of rain, sleet and hill snow will sweep southwards early in the period, to be followed by colder and brighter weather with some wintry showers, mainly in northern and eastern coastal areas. For the rest of the first week, low pressure will be close to northeastern parts of the and UK bringing a risk of sleet and snow at times here, most likely across hills in the north initially, but falling to lower levels later in the week with the driest weather likely in southern parts. Night-time frosts are likely in all areas. Thereafter, things look like remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry weather particularly in northern and eastern parts of the UK. Temperatures should remain rather cold with an ongoing risk of frost and ice.

Updated: 1119 on Thu 30 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jan 2011 to Friday 14 Jan 2011:

Largely unsettled and rather cloudy from the middle of next week through into the following weekend, with spells of rain and hill snow in the south and west at first soon spreading northeast, perhaps bringing some sleet and snow, as well as an ice risk, to northern, eastern and central parts at times. Then, by the new week, the south and east should become drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry, and hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east, to the south and west nearer normal at first but turning colder later. The colder-than-average theme then persists into the week after next.

Updated: 1200 on Fri 31 Dec 2010

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Jan 2011 to Saturday 15 Jan 2011:

The end of the week will be largely unsettled, with spells of rain in the south clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, but wintry showers continuing in the north and northeast. Remaining unsettled at the weekend, especially in the north, northeast and west, with wintry showers and an ice risk, but becoming drier in the south and east. Then, by the new week, the south and east should continue drier whilst the north and west remain unsettled with showers, some of them wintry and with hill snow. Temperatures remaining cold or rather cold to the north and east at first, but with indications that winds will become more southwesterly with time, allowing temperatures to return to nearer normal in the south and west and perhaps also the north later.

Updated: 1200 on Sat 1 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Oh dear. Bit of a change from yesterday....Not what I wanted to see! Happy New Year though! :)

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UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Jan 2011 to Monday 17 Jan 2011:

Generally unsettled, cold and windy this weekend, especially in northern parts of the UK, with rain, sleet and snow clearing eastwards to be followed by wintry showers in the north and west, with an associated risk of ice. There is a possibility of a quieter interlude early next week but then it looks like more changeable conditions with showers or longer spells of rain will return from the southwest and continue into the following weekend, with a trend towards near normal temperatures. Snow is still possible in the north. The best chance of drier weather will be towards the east and southeast during this period, though it may be that drier, colder and frosty conditions once again extend to much of the country towards the middle of the month.

Updated: 1209 on Mon 3 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Jan 2011 to Tuesday 18 Jan 2011:

The unsettled theme looks set to continue throughout the period, with some sunny or clear spells and showers of rain, sleet and snow. Showers are expected to move eastwards, merging into more persistent spells of snow at times with some accumulations possible, mainly over hills. From Tuesday (11th), outbreaks of rain are likely to spread to most areas with perhaps some snow in the north of the UK at times, this later becoming confined to Scottish Mountains. Temperatures will be rather cold at first with widespread frost and ice, but become nearer normal for most and perhaps mild in southern parts of the UK by the end of the period. It will also be windy at times, particularly in the south.

Updated: 1153 on Tue 4 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Monday 10 Jan 2011 to Wednesday 19 Jan 2011:

After a fairly quiet and bright start to the week on Monday, with an overnight frost and just a few showers, it will quickly become unsettled with outbreaks of rain spreading across most areas. The rain may initially fall as snow over northern parts of the UK, especially over hills, but the snow risk will gradually become confined to the Scottish Mountains by the end of the period. Temperatures will be rather cold at first with a risk of frost and ice, but should gradually become nearer-normal for most and perhaps mild in southern parts of the UK by the weekend. It will become windy at times, particularly in the north and west, with a risk of gales at times on exposed coasts and hills.

Updated: 1144 on Wed 5 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Jan 2011 to Thursday 20 Jan 2011:

Becoming unsettled with outbreaks of rain spreading east across many areas, occasionally heavy and persistent, especially in the northwest. The rain may initially fall as snow over northeastern parts of the UK, especially over hills, but the snow risk will gradually become confined to the Scottish Mountains. Temperatures will be rather cold at first in the north, with a risk of frost and ice, but should gradually become normal or mild for most and perhaps very mild in southern parts of the UK by the weekend. It will be windy, particularly in the north and west, with a risk of gales at times on exposed coasts and hills. The following week will remain unsettled with further spells of rain, although occasional colder interludes may give snow in some places.

Updated: 1126 on Thu 6 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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Things are certainly not trending the cold way are they?! I have my doubts that the expected colder second half will come off as it's not creeping forward into the 6-15 day. We have to accept that the rest of the Winter MAY well be poor from a cold lovers perspective.

Edited by Don

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seem like the mild word been downgread

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Jan 2011 to Friday 21 Jan 2011:

Remaining unsettled with outbreaks of rain for many. This occasionally heavy and persistent, especially across western parts. The rain may turn to snow at times across northern hills, and possibly further south towards the weekend. It is likely to be cold at first in the north, with a risk of frost and ice, but will be around or slightly above average in the south. However towards the weekend it is likely to become rather cold across the UK. It will be windy, particularly across northwestern and later southwestern parts, with a risk of gales at times on exposed coasts and hills. The following week will remain unsettled with further wet and windy weather, but it will remain generally cold, with a risk of snow and ice, particularly in the north.

Updated: 1155 on Fri 7 Jan 2011

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

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