Meto Uk Further Outlook

[mountain shadow]

Not much exciting there then.

Anti cyclonic the first couple of weeks of December then slipping South East for a short while with the Atlantic pushing across the top. Then the anti cyclone coming back in the last couple of weeks.

Not even a hint of anything snow wise. The PV might be very weak, but it appears it won't be delivering for us.

[Scandinavian High.]

Let's get the cold in first then look for snow..

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Let's get the cold in first then look for snow..

It's been below average temperature wise for sometime and will continue to be but you won't get snow in an inversion or with High Pressure situated right over head.

The Met Office are the top forecasters for a reason, and they clearly see no risk of our high migrating to Greenland or Scandi.

Edited November 28, 2016 by mountain shadow

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's been below average temperature wise for sometime and will continue to be but you won't get snow in an inversion or with High Pressure situated right over head.

The Met Office are the top forecasters for a reason, and they clearly see no risk of our high migrating to Greenland or Scandi.

Just few days ago they were going for high pressure to the north east so the updates are likely to change snow wise..

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just few days ago they were going for high pressure to the north east so the updates are likely to change snow wise..

If they thought there was any probability of it, they would have mentioned it I think.

[booferking]

52 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's been below average temperature wise for sometime and will continue to be but you won't get snow in an inversion or with High Pressure situated right over head.

The Met Office are the top forecasters for a reason, and they clearly see no risk of our high migrating to Greenland or Scandi.

UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016:

This was there forecast last Wednesday for the above date, 

However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and even to lower levels in the north.

That forecast of the Altantic coming in does,nt look likely to happen now for the early part of Dec as forecast so if they cant get that right less than a week out then i would,nt rule out were the high will head mid Month, we just have to buckle and enjoy the ride.

Edited November 28, 2016 by booferking

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2016 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2016:

This was there forecast last Wednesday for the above date, 

However, it is likely to turn wet and windy in the north-west through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Some fog and freezing fog patches are likely, especially across central parts and it will be generally cold with overnight frosts quite widely. Through early December things are likely to turn more unsettled from the north-west, with some very windy conditions. The rain may turn to sleet or snow over high ground, and even to lower levels in the north.

That forecast of the Altantic coming in does,nt look likely to happen now for the early part of Dec as forecast so if they cant get that right less than a week out then i would,nt rule out were the high will head mid Month, we just have to buckle and enjoy the ride.

At least we were getting mention of snow last week, even to low levels!, The fact that this has disappeared completely is even more worrisome.

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

At least we were getting mention of snow last week, even to low levels!, The fact that this has disappeared completely is even more worrisome.

I would let this week play out first before i get worried about snow for mid Dec Onwards.

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would let this week play out first before i get worried about snow for mid Dec Onwards.

Aye. Tamara seems fairly confident of more HLB then MLB from mid December into the New Year, so a waiting game as ever.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 27/11/2016 at 14:21, Gael_Force said:

I've read most of what Fergie has written and I never saw any mention of snow. High pressure, colder than normal and a big change from last few winters. November, he said, would be colder second half ... it is! CET coming in around 5.6C according to the TWO comp organiser. If people want to extrapolate from missives that's up to them but they should not then transfer their over enthusiastic interpretation as a failed forecast.

Hang on a minute, the main height anomalies were said to be showing to our N and NW on much of the modelling they were using. Instead we've got HP looking like taking up residence over us. You can understand why people are disappointed...there may not be that much difference in surface temperature anomalies but in terms of actual weather there is a light year of difference (HP over the top of us precluding the risk of snow!)

Oh and ice and snow..

It's pretty obvious to me that a mid latitude feature was not originally the expected outcome...

Edited November 28, 2016 by CreweCold

[Norrona2015]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

At least we were getting mention of snow last week, even to low levels!, The fact that this has disappeared completely is even more worrisome.

How long till we start hearing the word drought mentioned this winter...

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Norrona2015 said:

How long till we start hearing the word drought mentioned this winter...

All is going to depend on the 2nd half of winter should the Atlantic wake up then probably not but if this drier than average spell continues for the next 3 months we'll need a fair amount of rain come spring to avoid serious problems in the summer

[Norrona2015]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All is going to depend on the 2nd half of winter should the Atlantic wake up then probably not but if this drier than average spell continues for the next 3 months we'll need a fair amount of rain come spring to avoid serious problems in the summer

I think the Atlantic is still knackered from last years exertions, hopefully it puts in an appearance soon.

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All is going to depend on the 2nd half of winter should the Atlantic wake up then probably not but if this drier than average spell continues for the next 3 months we'll need a fair amount of rain come spring to avoid serious problems in the summer

Unless, of course, summer is a washout...

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Dec 2016 to Tuesday 13 Dec 2016:

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of the mostly dry and settled weather, with some sunny spells, meanwhile some light rain is possible at times in the north. Where the cloud breaks overnight, this is likely to bring some overnight frost and fog. The far north-west is then likely to see outbreaks of rain combined with strong winds, which will gradually try to move southwards. However, the south-east could stay mostly dry as high pressure looks to dominate, meaning overnight freezing fog patches will be slow to clear by day. Temperatures on the whole will continue to be on the cold side, but as the more unsettled weather looks to spreads across the north of the country, milder interludes are more likely here at least.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 28 Dec 2016:

At first it is likely it will be rather unsettled in the north and west, with frontal systems pushing through interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Meanwhile, the south of the UK has a higher chance of staying dry and settled. From the middle of the month, it looks to turn generally more settled as high pressure builds in, or re-establishes more widely across the UK. This will bring drier than average conditions for many areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Any unsettled spells look to be fairly short lived. As the weather looks to remain blocked through the second half of December, temperatures are likely to be colder than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

Met office still playing their cards close to their chests then. Still no indication of a colder AND snowier mid to end of the month.

Edited November 29, 2016 by mountain shadow

[Hocus Pocus]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Met office still playing their cards close to their chests then. Still no indication of a colder AND snowier mid to end of the month.

A rather chilly but benign outlook really, nothing of note to wet the appetite if  its snow you're looking for.

Edited November 29, 2016 by Hocus Pocus

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Dec 2016 to Wednesday 14 Dec 2016:

Monday and Tuesday are likely to see a continuation of dry and settled weather, with sunny spells. Where the cloud breaks overnight, this is likely to bring overnight frost and fog. From Wednesday, the far north-west will probably get outbreaks of rain combined with stronger winds, which will gradually move further south. As they do so, the wind and rain will gradually die away so the south-east is likely to stay mostly dry with high pressure dominating. Overnight frost and fog patches are likely there and these may be slow to clear by day. Temperatures on the whole will continue to be on the cold side, but as the more unsettled weather spreads across the north of the country, milder interludes are more likely here at least.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Dec 2016 to Thursday 29 Dec 2016:

After a brief milder, unsettled interlude in the middle of the month especially in the north, more settled weather is likely to return as high pressure builds in for the second half of December, and re-establishes more widely across the UK. This will bring drier than average conditions again for most areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Any unsettled spells look set to be fairly short lived. Temperatures are likely to be colder than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Dec 2016 to Thursday 29 Dec 2016:

After a brief milder, unsettled interlude in the middle of the month especially in the north, more settled weather is likely to return as high pressure builds in for the second half of December, and re-establishes more widely across the UK. This will bring drier than average conditions again for most areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Any unsettled spells look set to be fairly short lived. Temperatures are likely to be colder than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That could be the perfect scenario: short lived milder bits (with frontal rain/snow) as lows run along the channel; otherwise, snow showers in the E and SE and with freezing fog in Scotland?

[Don]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

That could be the perfect scenario: short lived milder bits (with frontal rain/snow) as lows run along the channel; otherwise, snow showers in the E and SE and with freezing fog in Scotland?

Still no mention of any wintry precipitation though.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Dec 2016 to Thursday 15 Dec 2016:

Tuesday is likely to see more dry and settled weather for most of the country, with sunny spells. Where the cloud breaks overnight, this is likely to bring local frost and fog. However, the far west of the country is likely to become breezy on Tuesday, with some patchy rain later. From Wednesday, this rather wetter and windier weather will gradually spread further south-east. As it does so, the wind and rain will gradually ease so the south-east may well stay dry. It will become milder across the country with less frost than recently. Into next week, this milder, wetter and windier theme is likely to continue but in general, winds will be stronger and rain will be heavier in the north-west, whereas the south-east will stay drier and quieter.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Dec 2016 to Friday 30 Dec 2016:

After a milder, rather unsettled interlude in the middle of the month especially in the north, more settled weather is likely to return as high pressure builds in for the second half of December, and re-establishes more widely across the UK. This will bring drier than average conditions again for most areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of local frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Any unsettled spells look set to be fairly short lived. Temperatures are likely to be generally colder than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Norrona2015]

Not much in the way of snow for December then.