Meto Uk Further Outlook

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2016 to Friday 23 Dec 2016:

After a wet and windy start to this period, high pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, especially in the north and east. This weather pattern would lead to drier than average conditions and quieter winds. Interludes of more unsettled weather are expected to be fairly limited, though these could still lead to some snow over high ground in the north. It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Not what we wanted to hear. Get ready for a huge EC46 climb down tonight.

Edited November 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Dec 2016 to Friday 23 Dec 2016:

After a wet and windy start to this period,

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Met office sitting on the fence there, no indication whether that's rainy wet or snowy wet or indeed both!

[feb1991blizzard]

Ive been thinking this for a while now but this has got Dec 1991 (I think) written all over it, could be 1992 (or both),   -    very cold but dry and anticyclonic.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Met office sitting on the fence there, no indication whether that's rainy wet or snowy wet or indeed both!

I agree; but what else could they do, whilst the extended outlook is still very uncertain?

[feb1991blizzard]

Be interesting to see what John Hammond makes of it tonight.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree; but what else could they do, whilst the extended outlook is still very uncertain?

Ha ha, I know, I know, but I want answers!

 

[Essex snowman]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not what we wanted to hear. Get ready for a huge EC46 climb down tonight.

Have to agree a disappointing outlook still time to change and hopefully to a snowy one 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Fretters said:

The latest update rejects the GFS and doesn't even mention the possibility of something like the GFS happening.

Thereafter a downgrade to HP dominating, and not even cold enough for systems coming in to give snow away from High ground in the North.

 

I don't think the Met are 'rejecting' it at all, Fretters; they're just not basing the LRF on it, as, even should it verify, at this point in time, it's just one solution out of many...

[biggreyface]

59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Met office sitting on the fence there, no indication whether that's rainy wet or snowy wet or indeed both!

Met office sitting on the fence . Forget brexit and trump for president  that has got to be the biggest shock this year

[Essan]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Met office sitting on the fence there, no indication whether that's rainy wet or snowy wet or indeed both!

No, but "It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year."

Nothing mild in the forecast.  That's what matters

[March]

But our average winter temps are relatively mild. You need an anomaly of around -5C to even start to get near what coldies want. 

[Essan]

18 minutes ago, March said:

But our average winter temps are relatively mild. You need an anomaly of around -5C to even start to get near what coldies want. 

That's because coldies want 47 and 63 combined and absolutely nothing less will do  

Personally, I would be very happy with a few good frosts and risk of some snow, albeit fairly transient.  More than we normally get these days!   I know 2010 was most likely a one-off in my lifetime  

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2016 to Friday 9 Dec 2016:

We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK on Wednesday and Thursday, but dry with sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight, which may persist into the mornings on some days, particularly in the north. As we go into early December, we are likely to see an unsettled spell of weather, with spells of rain and strong winds at times. There is also the risk of some transient snow over northern hills. The best chance of any drier and brighter weather is likely to be confined to the south of the UK, with lighter winds. Temperatures will be rather cold at first, recovering to around normal, especially in the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Dec 2016 to Saturday 24 Dec 2016:

After a wet and windy start to this period, high pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, with fairly 'blocked' conditions becoming established across the UK. This weather pattern would lead to drier than average conditions and lighter winds. Interludes of more unsettled weather are expected to be fairly limited, although these could still lead to some snow over high ground in the north. It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[cyclonic happiness]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Dec 2016 to Saturday 24 Dec 2016:

After a wet and windy start to this period, high pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, with fairly 'blocked' conditions becoming established across the UK. This weather pattern would lead to drier than average conditions and lighter winds. Interludes of more unsettled weather are expected to be fairly limited, although these could still lead to some snow over high ground in the north. It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Seems positive, and like the models are barking up the wrong tree, for the time being

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Dec 2016 to Saturday 10 Dec 2016:

We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK to start the period, but it should be largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight where skies are clear. As we go into early December, as pressure remains high around the country, central and western areas are likely to be fine and dry with a threat of more unsettled conditions further east. With cold conditions becoming established across the country, there will be further overnight frost with the risk of some sleet and snow across northeastern parts, especially over higher ground.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Dec 2016 to Sunday 25 Dec 2016:

High pressure is likely to dominate from mid December, with fairly 'blocked' conditions becoming established across the UK. This weather pattern would lead to drier than average conditions and lighter winds. Interludes of more unsettled weather are expected to be fairly limited, although these could still lead to some snow over high ground in the north. It is likely to be rather a cold period, with temperatures below average for the time of year, and a continued risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Dec 2016 to Sunday 11 Dec 2016:

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of the mostly dry and settled weather, although it will often be cloudy with less overnight frost and fog, likely coinciding with breaks in the cloud. The far north-west will see outbreaks of rain and a stronger breeze and this will gradually sink southwards during the first week of December, bringing a greater chance of rain to most areas, particularly in the north and west. There is a small chance of some snow during this transition, especially over higher ground. Temperatures on the whole will continue to be on the cold side, but as the more unsettled weather spreads across the country there will be some slightly less cold interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Dec 2016 to Monday 26 Dec 2016:

Unsettled weather may continue at first, especially in the north-west, before more generally settled conditions return as high pressure builds in more widely across the UK, as we approach the middle of December. This will bring drier than average conditions for many areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Some unsettled spells are possible but these are likely to be fairly limited. As a result of the drier weather it is also likely to be colder than normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Dec 2016 to Monday 26 Dec 2016:

Unsettled weather may continue at first, especially in the north-west, before more generally settled conditions return as high pressure builds in more widely across the UK, as we approach the middle of December. This will bring drier than average conditions for many areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Some unsettled spells are possible but these are likely to be fairly limited. As a result of the drier weather it is also likely to be colder than normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

No sign of anything decent there then, just high pressure - a Gavin paradise!!!!   

[mountain shadow]

So much for a cold fronted Winter. Nothing snowy in this forecast at all. Despite the weak Strat, the cards just arent falling for us.

 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So much for a cold fronted Winter. Nothing snowy in this forecast at all. Despite the weak Strat, the cards just arent falling for us.

 

Must admit the alarm bells are beginning to ring, esp regarding the front loaded cold winter, plenty of time for changes tho....

[Gael_Force]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So much for a cold fronted Winter. Nothing snowy in this forecast at all. Despite the weak Strat, the cards just arent falling for us.

 

I've read most of what Fergie has written and I never saw any mention of snow. High pressure, colder than normal and a big change from last few winters. November, he said, would be colder second half ... it is! CET coming in around 5.6C according to the TWO comp organiser. If people want to extrapolate from missives that's up to them but they should not then transfer their over enthusiastic interpretation as a failed forecast.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Dec 2016 to Monday 12 Dec 2016:

The start of this period is likely to see a continuation of the mostly dry and settled weather, although it will often be cloudy. Some overnight frost and fog is likely where the cloud breaks. The far north-west will see outbreaks of rain and a stronger breeze and this more unsettled weather will gradually move southwards during the first week of December, bringing a greater chance of rain to most areas, particularly in the north and west, however, the south-east could stay mostly dry. Temperatures on the whole will continue to be on the cold side, but as the more unsettled weather spreads across the country milder interludes are more likely in the north at least.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Dec 2016 to Tuesday 27 Dec 2016:

At first it is likely it will be rather unsettled in the north and west, with frontal systems pushing through interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Meanwhile, the south of the UK has a higher change of staying dry and settled. From the middle of the month, it looks to turn generally more settled as high pressure builds in, or re-establishes more widely across the UK. This will bring drier than average conditions for many areas with lighter winds and an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. Any unsettled spells look to be fairly short lived. As the weather looks to remain blocked through the second half of December, temperatures are likely to be colder than average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast