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Stuart

Meto Uk Further Outlook

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

A rather underwhelming update -  i was hoping for something more wintry- perhaps its just not going to be cold enough for low level snow afterall..

Yes, it would have been nice to mention more than hill snow. Basically the wording is exactly the same as yesterday. Copy and paste. The same applies for the 16-30 dayer.

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Just now, karyo said:

Yes, it would have been nice to mention more than hill snow. Basically the wording is exactly the same as yesterday. Copy and paste. The same applies for the 16-30 dayer.

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

Agreed! I think they may be playing it safe as the PM air is still about a week away and it is hard to predict at this stage how much it will be moderated. As it looks now, the wind comes straight across the north Atlantic which limits moderation but as we approach the event the models can pick up secondary lows that can cut off/moderate more the cold air which can make the difference for the low ground. Let's hope those secondary lows won't turn up and the update gets wintrier in the coming days.

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If only the MetO selected the coldest/snowiest perturbations from each model-run, eh...? Then they'd be making 'BOOM' updates one after t'other...:cold:

At the end of the day, though, the weather will just do whatever it does. Excuse the tautology!:D

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Not the wintriest of updates from MO, but Ian on Twitter noting the cold zonality phase so they must be seeing something a bit more wintry than the update 

“colder, windy Pm/Am cyclonic phase continues well-signalled with risk of snow at times. As for SSW, no reliable signals "soon", with stratospheric polar vortex f'cast stronger than avg rest of Jan in GloSea5.”

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47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing.

Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places.

gfs-0-168.png?6gfs-2-168.png?6

For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes.

gfs-2-204.png?6gfs-2-240.png?6


First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again.

graphe6_1000_242_28___.gifTemperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.
Ensembles from the north West

 

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing.

Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places.

gfs-0-168.png?6gfs-2-168.png?6

For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes.

gfs-2-204.png?6gfs-2-240.png?6


First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again.

graphe6_1000_242_28___.gifTemperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.
Ensembles from the north West

 

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

Quote

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 23 Jan 2018:

Sunday will probably be rather cloudy for most with some outbreaks of light rain and drizzle. There may be some brighter spells before a band of heavy rain and gales arrive from the west, bringing some hill snow in the north, but not reaching the southeast until the end of the day. Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places. For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the northwest. Temperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.

 

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Just now, frosty ground said:

Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

 

Im confused lol.

Anyway, your going to get some decent snow next week FG- i'll be amazed if you dont clock up a few inches :)

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worst part of this is the stratosphere, the zonality was always likely.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

worst part of this is the stratosphere, the zonality was always likely.

Yeah- GP post last night sounded very positive but the meto outlook sounds very poor for most out to 1st week in feb.

lets hope next week delivers some suprises..

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On 08/01/2018 at 12:28, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

Posted Yesterday

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

Posted today

Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. 

Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

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9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Posted Yesterday

Posted today

Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. 

Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

Cheers mate :)

A little better- as i say, you should do really well once this PM air kicks in, dont tell me and karyo where you live you might see us stood outside your front door one evening with sledges in hand haha

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Posted (edited)

That's a decent improvement actually! :hi:

Edited by karyo
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22 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

I got it wrong was muddled up with the dates didn't change a great deal anyway

:oops:

 

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UK Outlook for Monday 15 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 24 Jan 2018:

Rain is expected to clear to the east by Tuesday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers following on behind. These showers will turn wintry in places, particularly in the north. Some of these will be heavy with a risk of thunder and hail. Unsettled conditions will then continue, with further showers or longer spells of rain at times which may also give some snow, mainly in the north. Spells of wet weather will be interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often it is going to be windy, with the greatest risk of gales or severe gales across the north and west. Overall there will be a cold feel with frost overnight where there are clear skies, but milder spells are also expected at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Tuesday 16 Jan 2018 to Thursday 25 Jan 2018:

Sunny spells and blustery showers will extend across the UK to start this period. These showers will turn wintry in places, particularly in the north and some of them will be heavy with a risk of thunder and hail. Unsettled conditions will then continue, with further showers or longer spells of rain at times which may also give some snow, mainly in the north. Wet weather will be interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often it is going to be windy, with gales or severe gales at times. Overall there will be a cold feel with frost overnight under clear skies but milder spells are also expected at times, especially in the south. Later on in January we may see a slighty drier and more settled interlude, particularly across southern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 17 Jan 2018 to Friday 26 Jan 2018:

This period will begin unsettled with sunny spells and frequent blustery showers. These are likely to be heavy with hail and thunder possible, and they will be wintry too, especially in the north where snow could accumulate for some. Longer spells of rain may affect the south at times, whilst all areas will be windy with gales or severe gales at times. For a short while, showers may slowly become lighter and less widespread, with winds easing although coastal gales are still probable. Later in the month though, we could see a return to more unsettled weather from the west. Overall, it will be cold throughout, and feeling especially so in the wind. Widespread overnight frost is likely as well as the risk of ice, especially where winds fall lighter.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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That's better! Positive additions:

a) accumulating snow in the north.

b Cold throughout.

c) Lost the drier settled interlude in the south.

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Spot the main difference between yesterday and today:

"...especially in the north where snow could accumulate for some..."

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UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Jan 2018 to Saturday 27 Jan 2018:

This period is likely to start off windy with sunshine and blustery showers, these giving some snow, mainly in the north, with rain or sleet likely elsewhere. Some good shelter for eastern parts of the UK which will see drier, brighter weather. Showers are likely to become less frequent and the winds ease as we head into the new working week. It'll feel cold too, with a marked wind chill, although this less becoming less noticeable as winds weaken. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty as we head into late January with the UK likely to see a mixture of short-lived spells of rain and showers, which could be wintry at times, and periods of colder, brighter, and more generally showery weather. Temperatures staying near or below normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Friday 19 Jan 2018 to Sunday 28 Jan 2018:

The start of the period should be cold and windy with a mix of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest in the northwest and give a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow. It'll be drier in the south with gales possible in the exposed west. Overnight frosts are possible. Showers will die-out and winds ease into the new working week, before we see further cloud, rain, some hill-snow, and strong winds move in from the west for around mid-week. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty as we head into late January but the UK likely to see a mixture of short-lived spells of rain and showers, wintry at times, followed by periods of colder, brighter, and more generally showery weather. Temperatures staying near or below normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Jan 2018 to Monday 29 Jan 2018:

The coming weekend will be dry, cold and bright for many, with frosty starts and a few wintry showers. However persistent rain will arrive for a time, perhaps preceded by snow in the north. The start of the new working week will be fairly unsettled with strong winds and some prolonged spells of grey and wet weather, between brighter, showery conditions. Hill snow is possible in the north, although it could be quite mild in the south at times. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty as we head into late January but the UK is likely to see a mixture of short-lived spells of rain and showers, with snow possible for some, followed by periods of colder, brighter weather. Temperatures staying near or below normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 30 Jan 2018:

Sunday will start dry, cold and bright at least in the east, with a frosty start. However persistent rain and strong winds will then arrive, perhaps preceded by snow in the north. The start of the new working week will be fairly unsettled with strong winds and some prolonged spells of grey and wet weather, between brighter, showery conditions. Hill snow is possible in the north, although it could be quite mild in the south at times. There remains quite a lot of uncertainty as we head into late January but the UK is likely to see a mixture of short-lived spells of rain and showers, with snow possible for some, followed by periods of colder, brighter weather. Temperatures staying near or below normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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