Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 25 Nov - Saturday 4 Dec

Through Thursday a band of rain clearing from the southeast during the day, with patchy overnight mist and fog ahead of it. Likely to be brighter to the north, with blustery showers in some coastal areas. Showers many be wintry in upland areas in the north. Tending to feel rather cold. As the period continues winds will be typically from the north and northwest allowing cold conditions to persist. High pressure is likely to sit to the south or southwest of the UK, bringing possible rain and showers to the north, wintry on high ground and perhaps at lower levels at times. Likely drier in the south, often largely settled with clear/sunny spells. Rather cold at times, with overnight frost likely.

Sunday 5 Dec - Sunday 19 Dec

A generally northwesterly airflow looks set to continue for much of this period, with the most changeable conditions likely to be in the north of the UK. Showers or longer spells of rain and possibly strong winds are likely across the north, become increasingly likely further north, these interspersed with periods of more settled weather. In the south high pressure is likely to remain close by, giving a good deal of settled and dry weather. Temperatures will be varied overall with longer mild spells being punctuated by shorter colder spells, with some wintry weather also possible. During any clear, calm spells, overnight frost and fog are likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[DOdo]

A generally northwesterly airflow looks set to continue for much of this period, with the most changeable conditions likely to be in the north of the UK.

Followed at the end

 Temperatures will be varied overall with longer mild spells being punctuated by shorter colder spells, 

 

Is that not a contradiction,  On one hand they are staying  A Northwesterly is set to continue for much of this period. then they are saying that overall it will stay mild?? Since when did a  Northwesterly wind come from a  mild direction ?  Just an observation and  I  know  its a long way off.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by DOdo
misspelling

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, DOdo said:

A generally northwesterly airflow looks set to continue for much of this period, with the most changeable conditions likely to be in the north of the UK.

Followed at the end

 Temperatures will be varied overall with longer mild spells being punctuated by shorter colder spells, 

 

Is that not a contradiction,  On one hand they are staying  A Northwesterly is set to continue for much of this period. then they are saying that overall it will stay mild?? Since when did a  Northwesterly wind come from a  mild direction ?  Just an observation and  I  know  its a long way off.

 

 

I think they are seeing a mid atlantic high scenario, sometimes the core further south which allows more of a milder feed of air to transfer around its northern flank, but at times it will ridge north towards Greenland pulling in colder NW/N flow.. the coming week shows this scenario, some days will be cold, others milder. 

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, DOdo said:

A generally northwesterly airflow looks set to continue for much of this period, with the most changeable conditions likely to be in the north of the UK.

Followed at the end

 Temperatures will be varied overall with longer mild spells being punctuated by shorter colder spells, 

 

Is that not a contradiction,  On one hand they are staying  A Northwesterly is set to continue for much of this period. then they are saying that overall it will stay mild?? Since when did a  Northwesterly wind come from a  mild direction ?  Just an observation and  I  know  its a long way off.

 

 

It’s classic MetO fence sitting, driven by politics. They cannot be seen to be wrong, so all options are laid out as possible. Their high res models tell them much more than they let on, but they won’t tell Joe Public even though we part fund them because they save their best stuff for clients and government. It’s annoying, and the 3 month smoothed glosea access is insulting - but all we can do is try and read between the lines and meantime do some of our own research with freely available tools. This particular update as Damianslaw has said basically tells us their modelling says Nina ridge for the foreseeable. Anything more specific than that they won’t let us know, or presents too great a risk should a rogue factor skew the path forward.

I don’t read these forecasts at all anymore. Marco Petagna on Twitter is their specialist social media outlet now, and he definitely allows the weather community to get a bit closer to things. He is good, open and straight talking as far as he is allowed to go…

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 27 Nov - Monday 6 Dec

Windy for many over the weekend with a risk of severe gales, especially in west. Many places will see a mixture of sunshine, showers and longer periods of rain which could turn wintry, mainly over hills in the north. Overnight frost and patchy ice likely where skies are clear. As the period continues winds are generally from the north or northwest allowing unsettled and cold conditions to persist. High pressure is likely to sit to the south of the UK, so rain and showers are more likely in the north, these could be wintry on high ground and perhaps at lower levels at times. Likely drier in the south and rather cold at times, with overnight frost and fog often slow to clear.

Saturday 27 Nov - Monday 6 Dec

Windy for many over the weekend with a risk of severe gales, especially in west. Many places will see a mixture of sunshine, showers and longer periods of rain which could turn wintry, mainly over hills in the north. Overnight frost and patchy ice likely where skies are clear. As the period continues winds are generally from the north or northwest allowing unsettled and cold conditions to persist. High pressure is likely to sit to the south of the UK, so rain and showers are more likely in the north, these could be wintry on high ground and perhaps at lower levels at times. Likely drier in the south and rather cold at times, with overnight frost and fog often slow to clear.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[LRD]

Quite a flip in the longer range forecast from the MetO

Wet and stormy. Cold references downplayed

Wed 8 - Wed 22 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible

 

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by LRD

[MattStoke]

On 23/11/2021 at 16:43, LRD said:

Quite a flip in the longer range forecast from the MetO

Wet and stormy. Cold references downplayed

Wed 8 - Wed 22 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible

 

Weather and climate change

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 28 Nov - Tuesday 7 Dec

A more settled day on Sunday with rain and strong winds clearing to the southeast and followed by drier and brighter interludes but remaining cold with patchy frost and ice as well as some hill snow. Some scattered showers could affect eastern coastal districts. Then becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Wednesday 8 Dec - Wednesday 22 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 28 Nov - Tuesday 7 Dec

A more settled day on Sunday with rain and strong winds clearing to the southeast and followed by drier and brighter interludes but remaining cold with patchy frost and ice as well as some hill snow. Some scattered showers could affect eastern coastal districts. Then becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Wednesday 8 Dec - Wednesday 22 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Looks like we can only hope for a toppler for white Christmas chances.  Little sign of anything wintry there.

[Don]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Looks like we can only hope for a toppler for white Christmas chances.  Little sign of anything wintry there.

Wouldn't worry, all subject to change at that range anyway.

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Wouldn't worry, all subject to change at that range anyway.

I know that, but would like even a subtle hint of something decent. 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I know that, but would like even a subtle hint of something decent. 

I'm sure there will be at some point in the coming days or weeks.

[Blessed Weather]

At 376 pages long it's time to renew this thread. This thread is now locked. Here's the link to the new thread:

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Blessed Weather