Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 14 Sep - Thursday 23 Sep

Probably turning warmer but more unsettled again during the middle of next week with a chance of showers for most areas, these potentially heavy and thundery in places, especially across the south of the country. Towards the end of next week and thereafter, there is an increased chance of Atlantic systems arriving from the west. This will see spells of rain move across the country followed by brighter but showery periods. Some windy spells are also possible at times. It will likely be wettest in the northwest with the best of any drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will be fluctuating around average for most, with a chance of some warm spells in the south.

Friday 24 Sep - Friday 8 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 16 Sep - Saturday 25 Sep

Likely largely dry in the south on Thursday, with the risk of a few showers. However, outbreaks of rain, potentially heavy, with stronger winds arriving across the northwest and spreading south-eastwards, bringing a spell of rain to many areas of the UK on Friday. Through the weekend and beyond, there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas, with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells, but with the risk of overnight fog patches. Towards the northwest, perhaps cloudier with the chance of rain at times, which may gradually spread south-eastwards to other areas. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average for the time of the year, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Saturday 25 Sep - Saturday 9 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 17 Sep - Sunday 26 Sep

Fine and dry to start across central and eastern areas on Friday. Outbreaks of rain, heavy in places, and strong winds across the northwest at first will gradually spread southeastwards through the day. Through the weekend and beyond, there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas, with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells, but with the risk of overnight fog patches. Towards the northwest, perhaps cloudier with the chance of rain at times, which may spread south-eastwards to other areas. There is also the possibility that these unsettled conditions may become more widespread across the UK. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Monday 27 Sep - Monday 11 Oct

Confidence is fairly low through this period. However, the current signals suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times. In the southeast more settled weather is likely. Towards the end of October, a trend towards more widely settled conditions is possible. Overall, rainfall is expected to be above average with temperatures warmer than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 18 Sep - Monday 27 Sep

Through the weekend and Monday there is a signal for mostly fine and dry weather across southern and eastern areas with variable amounts of cloud and some decent sunny spells, although overnight there is a risk of fog patches. Towards the northwest, it looks to be cloudier with the chance of rain at times, at times this may spread south-eastwards into other areas. Then into next week confidence becomes lower, however it is expected that conditions will remain split with low pressure affecting the northwest and more settled conditions being found in the southeast. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near to above average, but with the chance of some cool nights particularly in the north.

Tuesday 28 Sep - Tuesday 12 Oct

Confidence is fairly low through this period. However, the current signals suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times. In the southeast more settled weather is likely. Towards the mid October, a trend towards more widely settled conditions is possible. Overall, rainfall is expected to be above average with temperatures warmer than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 20 Sep - Wednesday 29 Sep

Starting warm for many next week. A fair amount of cloud on Monday, with some outbreaks of rain mixed with brighter interludes. Driest across the far northwest and Northern Ireland, with the south rather cloudy and damp. High pressure builds from the south Tuesday onwards, giving largely fine conditions, although with a risk of an isolated shower. Into the remainder of September, a northwest to southeast split develops: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures above average to start the period, but near normal later with some chilly, and misty, nights possible.

Thursday 30 Sep - Thursday 14 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Mmm not the most inspiring of outlooks.. all rather humdrum.. come on Autumn get going!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 21 Sep - Thursday 30 Sep

Tuesday will remain quite cloudy with some patchy outbreaks of light rain or drizzle and with the best of any sunny spells in central locations. By mid-week a northwest to southeast split is likely to develop, and set the trend for the rest of September: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or above average, and likely to remain so for this period, still with some chilly and misty nights possibly, especially rural northern and western areas.

Friday 1 Oct - Friday 15 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 15/09/2021 at 22:43, damianslaw said:

Mmm not the most inspiring of outlooks.. all rather humdrum.. come on Autumn get going!

Warm summer-like days are lovely. But from around the equinox onwards, I do begin to get a little bored of that kind of weather and start to welcome the atlantic with open arms. On the other hand, during autumn calm sunny days are great when they are accompanied by cold foggy nights/mornings. 

I feel the same way from around the vernal equinox, but in reverse.

Edited September 16, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 22 Sep - Friday 1 Oct

A band of cloud and rain, heavy at times, looks likely to cross the UK on Wednesday, with sunny spells and showers either side of this. Thursday and Friday look to be unsettled and much of the country will see showers or longer spells of rain. Coastal gales likely in the northwest. From the weekend onwards, a northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, which could be heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly above average, with some chilly and misty nights possible.

Saturday 2 Oct - Saturday 16 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 23 Sep - Saturday 2 Oct

Thursday and Friday look to be widely unsettled, with much of the UK receiving showers or longer spells of rain, as well as windy conditions. Northwestern areas will likely see the heaviest rain and coastal gales. From the weekend onwards, a very general northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most of any unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly below average, but may slightly rise towards the end of this period.

Sunday 3 Oct - Sunday 17 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 27 Sep - Wednesday 6 Oct

A band of blustery, sometimes intense, showers pass over much of the UK through Monday, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures for the oncoming week as it passes. As such, eastern areas are likely to start off warm and fine once patchy mist clears on Monday ahead of this. Breezy winds with the risk of gales for Northern Isles. A cyclonic pattern will likely develop from Tuesday and last into October, bringing largely unsettled condition across the UK with a very general northwest to southeast split: Showers and long spells of rain towards northern areas with the southeast perhaps seeing drier and sunnier weather. However, unsettled weather could still spread south with outbreaks of rain. Temperatures near average but may rise slightly towards the end of this period.

Thursday 7 Oct - Thursday 21 Oct

Confidence is typically low through this period. Current signals suggest the higher pressure is more likely over the south during this period, giving generally dry and settle conditions. More settled conditions may spread northwards at times. Lower pressure in the north will bring periods of showers or longer spells along with stronger winds. Temperatures most likely around or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 30 Sep - Saturday 9 Oct

A low pressure system will cross the country at the start of this period, bringing heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms for all. Thereafter, further low pressure systems will affect the UK, particularly northwestern areas. This will bring organised bands of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with cooler and showery periods but some sunny spells too. Drier and more settled conditions are likely across southern and eastern parts of the country, but there is still a chance that bands of rain and strong winds from the north and west could extend into these areas. The temperatures are most likely to be slightly below average for this time of the year during the start of the period, but will gradually return to near average later.

Sunday 10 Oct - Sunday 24 Oct

Confidence is typically low during this period, but the most likely outcome is for high pressure to dominate in the south, leading to drier and more settled conditions over these areas. In the north, lower pressure is likely to prevail, with these areas seeing the wettest weather. However, there is a chance of settled conditions becoming more prevalent across most of the UK for a time. Temperatures are more likely to be around or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 1 Oct - Sunday 10 Oct

A low pressure system to the north of the UK will dominate during the start of this period, bringing heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms for all. Thereafter, further low pressure systems will affect the UK, particularly northwestern areas. This will bring organised bands of rain, heavy at times, interspersed with cooler and showery periods but some sunny spells too. Drier and more settled conditions are likely across southern and eastern parts of the country, but there is still a chance that bands of rain and strong winds from the north and west could extend into these areas. The temperatures are most likely to be slightly below average for this time of the year during the start of the period, but will gradually return to near average later.

Monday 11 Oct - Monday 25 Oct

Confidence is typically low during this period, but the most likely outcome is for high pressure to dominate in the south, leading to drier and more settled conditions over these areas. In the north, lower pressure is likely to prevail, with these areas seeing the wettest weather. However, there is a chance of settled conditions becoming more prevalent across most of the UK for a time. Temperatures are more likely to be around or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 8 Oct - Sunday 17 Oct

Later into next week, cloudy conditions are expected with occasional rain that is at times prolonged and heavy across western Scotland and Northern Ireland accompanied by strong winds across northwestern coasts. Elsewhere, dry with variable cloud and some clear and sunny spells, with the most sun in southern and southeastern areas. In addition, light winds will allow for some patchy fog to develop overnight which may locally be slow to clear. Temperatures are expected to be above average through this period. Into the following week, this northwest-southeast regime is likely to persist, with any spells of rain and potentially strong winds to the northwest. Drier and more settled elsewhere, however, there is a likelihood of some slight showers affecting areas further southeast with temperatures also returning to nearer average.

Monday 18 Oct - Monday 1 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 9 Oct - Monday 18 Oct

A band of cloud and increasingly patchy rain will push southeast through the weekend. Ahead of this, areas of mist and fog will likely be slow to clear, whilst clearer weather follows into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry conditions are likely to then dominate for much of the UK for the rest of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and west at times. Fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Temperatures are likely to remain somewhat above normal for the time of year, but with chilly nights at times too. A change to more unsettled conditions may get underway by the end of the period.

Tuesday 19 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Reading between the lines, looks like we will exchange the milder settled tropical maritime airstream away from the far NW as we move through this week, for something more substantively settled and anticyclonic next week, as heights build over the UK. This is being shown in the models today. However, at the same time, a sharp scandi trough will form, and the high will be forced westwards into the atlantic becoming a mid atlantic high, but not close enough to keep the atlantic away, instead a NW-SE jetstream profile with low pressure dropping down from the NW, bringing cooler wetter conditions for the NW, and possibly in time everything then shifts further west and we pull down a much colder northerly sourced flow. All very very plausible.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 10 Oct - Tuesday 19 Oct

A band of cloud and increasingly patchy rain will push southeast through the weekend. Ahead of this, areas of mist and fog will likely be slow to clear, whilst clearer weather follows into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry conditions are likely to then dominate for much of the UK for the rest of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and west at times. Fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Temperatures are likely to remain somewhat above normal for the time of year, but with chilly nights at times too. A change to more unsettled conditions may get underway by the end of the period.

Tuesday 19 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov

Confidence in this period is low. Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Wider dry spells are possible across the country, with early morning frost and fog becoming more increasingly prevalent. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 12 Oct - Thursday 21 Oct

A north/south split at the start of this period with unsettled breezy conditions in the north, whilst the south remains largely dry with sunny spells. High pressure and mostly dry conditions are likely to then dominate the UK for much of the period, with only occasional spells of rain likely in the north and east at times. Overnight fog will continue to be a feature of the weather with light winds. Feeling chilly at first. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below normal for the time of year, with a possibility of some frost. A change to more unsettled conditions in all regions may get underway in the second half of the period.

Friday 22 Oct - Friday 5 Nov

Turning more widely unsettled across the UK, with wettest and windiest conditions remaining to the north and the northwest and more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas. Moving forward, wider dry spells are likely across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. There is a chance of a colder settled period becoming established by early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 15 Oct - Sunday 24 Oct

Dry conditions across much of England and Wales through the start of the period with sunny spells developing after clearance of early mist/fog patches through the morning. Cloudy and windy in the north with a risk of coastal gales along with a spell of rain. Temperatures near average through the start of this period. High pressure and mostly dry conditions are likely gradually become less dominant early in this period with further spells of rain and stronger winds arriving across the northwest. These more unsettled conditions likely to become established more widely towards the latter part of this period. Temperatures likely remaining around or a little above average with night frosts possible in clearer interludes throughout.

Monday 25 Oct - Monday 8 Nov

Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. However, there is a chance of colder conditions becoming established in early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 16 Oct - Monday 25 Oct

To start this period, a band of thicker cloud extends from the northwest to southeast bringing the chance of drizzle. Outside of this area, dry and bright conditions across much of the UK with sunny spells developing. Temperatures mostly near average through the start of this period, although becoming colder in the north with rural areas seeing frost. High pressure and mostly dry conditions across the southeast at first while further spells of rain and stronger winds arrive across the northwest, spreading into southern parts too at times. These more unsettled conditions likely to become established more widely towards the latter part of this period. Temperatures likely remaining around or a little above average with night frosts possible in clearer interludes throughout.

Monday 25 Oct - Monday 8 Nov

Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Through this period temperatures will remain near or above average. However, there is a chance of colder conditions becoming established in early November.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 17 Oct - Tuesday 26 Oct

Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather begins to form at the start of this period as cloud builds and associated outbreaks of rain develop. These outbreaks are likely to be heaviest in the west of the country. Wind becomes increasing breezy as these unsettled conditions are set to remain across most parts through this period, with showers and longer spells of rain likely across all regions. Winds will frequently be strong across all areas of the UK with an increased risk of gales, especially across the north and northwest. The best of any drier interludes will be found in the south east whilst temperatures across the nation remain around average, if not slightly above.

Tuesday 26 Oct - Tuesday 9 Nov

Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Becoming increasingly settled towards the middle of the month with an increased risk of frost and fog. Temperatures remaining near to average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 17 Oct - Tuesday 26 Oct

Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather begins to form at the start of this period as cloud builds and associated outbreaks of rain develop. These outbreaks are likely to be heaviest in the west of the country. Wind becomes increasing breezy as these unsettled conditions are set to remain across most parts through this period, with showers and longer spells of rain likely across all regions. Winds will frequently be strong across all areas of the UK with an increased risk of gales, especially across the north and northwest. The best of any drier interludes will be found in the south east whilst temperatures across the nation remain around average, if not slightly above.

Tuesday 26 Oct - Tuesday 9 Nov

Generally unsettled across the UK, although the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to remain in the north and the northwest, with more settled conditions to southern and eastern areas at times. Moving into early November, more widespread dry spells are possible across the country, with the risk of overnight fog which will clear by day. Becoming increasingly settled towards the middle of the month with an increased risk of frost and fog. Temperatures remaining near to average throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sounds 'seasonal' if not deeply cold. Anything is preferable to the nuisance, unpleasant wind, rain and mild garbage that plagues the majority of many a winter.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 18 Oct - Wednesday 27 Oct

Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather will then develop through next week, with wet and windy conditions likely for all areas, especially so in the north and west. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, with the greatest chance of gales in the north and northwest. There will still be some sunshine between the showers, and the best of any drier interludes will be in the southeast. Temperatures for all will be around average, if not slightly above. Towards the end of next week and beyond, there may be longer drier spells between the periods of wind and rain, these most likely in the south and east of the country.

Thursday 28 Oct - Thursday 11 Nov

Changeable conditions are likely to continue during late October. There are indications that drier interludes may become more prolonged across the south and southeast whilst wetter and windier conditions continue in the north and northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average for the rest of October. Confidence becomes very low into the start of November where widely settled periods could develop periodically with an increased risk of frost and fog, although unsettled periods are still possible. Temperatures in November are likely to remain a little above average overall but with an increased likelihood of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 19 Oct - Thursday 28 Oct

Although starting mostly dry in the southeast, a period of unsettled weather will then develop through next week, with wet and windy conditions likely for all areas, especially so in the north and west. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, with the greatest chance of gales in the north and northwest. There will still be some sunshine between the showers, and the best of any drier interludes will be in the southeast. Temperatures for all will be around average, if not slightly above. Towards the end of next week and beyond, there may be longer drier spells between the periods of wind and rain, these most likely in the south and east of the country.

Thursday 28 Oct - Thursday 11 Nov

Changeable conditions are likely to continue during late October. There are indications that drier interludes may become more prolonged across the south and southeast whilst wetter and windier conditions continue in the north and northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average for the rest of October. Confidence becomes very low into the start of November where widely settled periods could develop periodically with an increased risk of frost and fog, although unsettled periods are still possible. Temperatures in November are likely to remain a little above average overall but with an increased likelihood of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 20 Oct - Friday 29 Oct

Starting off widely unsettled with showery and windy conditions for many although this may improve from the west. A mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers for the east and northeast. Temperatures falling to below average for most increasing the likelihood of snow over higher ground in the north. More settled conditions likely to develop for a time into the weekend with some dry weather for most areas. However, probably soon turning unsettled again as cloud, rain and stronger winds arrive from the west. Unsettled conditions then likely to persist towards the end of October. Temperatures most likely trending up after a colder start to this period. Any further spells of colder weather likely short lived and restricted to the north.

Saturday 30 Oct - Saturday 13 Nov

Through the end of October and early November the weather is likely to be dominated by systems arriving from the Atlantic. Remaining unsettled and windy with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and west. Driest conditions across the south especially the southeast with lighter winds but the risk of overnight fog at times. From early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/