Meto Uk Further Outlook

[phil nw.]

I think that update is as cold and snowy as we can expect from the m.o. 

They won't risk to much detail but the wording is clear enough. 

[Don]

No complaints from me with that update!  Lets hope come the end of the 12z's we are not expecting that forecast to change tomorrow?

[Bricriu]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Brief? The update is pretty clear (always accepting the "low confidence" caveat) that high pressure is set to hold sway to the north. That means extended cold - and the "brief" adjective would apply to anything mild. Bear in mind also that we are currently moving away from any trigger to SSW style action, and that makes theses longer terms Glosea inspired forecasts more reliable in my book. With HP set to sit to our north through the month I think it unlikely we will see any further strat action this season. The fun time there was in January and now we are reaping some of the benefits.

If we get downwelling response to the vortex recovery look to the block holding on but sliding airmasses from the north west. This is alluded to in the update. And that means snow alongside potential for brief mild sectors.

Far from the downbeat conclusion you have applied to the update I would suggest it is one of the best style met office 4 week predictors that we have seen over the years. They got the end of the 2018 BFTE wrong as the mild won through faster than expected - but that was a totally different and mind bending context. This one is more straightforward, and the modelling will be more accurate. If this update doesn't get your cold juices flowing then nothing will.

Looking at the some of the charts i'm not convinced that we'll see a prolonged cold spell. The latter stage of the UKMO output looks like an attempt from the Atlantic to get in will be made. It could be a snowy episode with cold winning out but it could easily end up in a situation whereby the mild pushes too far north for Ireland and the South of England. The latest Met update is encouraging for all areas to see snow at some point, but that could easily change again.

[Catacol]

32 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

The latest Met update is encouraging for all areas to see snow at some point

Agreed.

[Singularity]

I must say, I'm surprised how confident they are in the fronts making little inroads next week.

It's only a little beyond what I expected, mind - when it comes down to it only one out of the 'big four' is really challenging that assessment at this time and it just lost some support from its own ensembles. Imagine being GFS. Shudder.

[TSNWK]

3 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

Helen Willets seems to be everywhere at the moment,always a good sign.

weather looked ok also

[Scandinavian High.]

Just updated 

 

An area of high pressure looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Snow showers are possible across the country during the early part of the period, but most widespread and heaviest for northeastern areas. Drier weather to follow, with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

[suxer]

4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Just updated 

 

An area of high pressure looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Snow showers are possible across the country during the early part of the period, but most widespread and heaviest for northeastern areas. Drier weather to follow, with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

Decent update

[legritter]

Yes very good update, perhaps as next  week progresses fronts could move in from the east ,south and of course some sliders ,but at  this range the Met won't commit ,perhaps in following updates ,Great weather watching coming up, cheers to you all. 

[Battleground Snow]

23 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air

That's a very good update, best of the winter for sure, nice to see very cold in there.

Based on that they don't expect the Atlantic get in much like the 06z showed

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Yes, I don’t see the Atlantic getting any traction with the volume of cold air expected to take hold of NW’ Europe. 
 

Sliders galore for SW’ areas.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 8 Feb - Wednesday 17 Feb

An area of high pressure looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Snow showers are possible across the country during the early part of the period, but most widespread and heaviest for northeastern areas. Drier weather to follow, with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Wednesday 17 Feb - Wednesday 3 Mar

Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

35 minutes ago, legritter said:

Yes very good update, perhaps as next  week progresses fronts could move in from the east ,south and of course some sliders ,but at  this range the Met won't commit ,perhaps in following updates ,Great weather watching coming up, cheers to you all. 

I don't think it has changed since yesterday, but that's a good thing as it's a decent outlook!

[Norrance]

They have ditched the bit where they said that milder wetter weather may topple in to the far NW at times in the last couple of days. Means that the high will be more robust and perhaps further North? 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Norrance

[ptow]

A very good update but I do note it says it will "feel" cold or very cold. Thats slightly different to actually being cold. Not saying it wont be but

[Brassmonkeylily]

Well the most balanced view I have heard today .... excellent summary and explains all the options and of course the fine margins but all to play for

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Well the most balanced view I have heard today .... excellent summary and explains all the options and of course the fine margins but all to play for

It was very well presented and  most notably the option that is not on the table is the Atlantic blasting its way right through the UK as per GFS.

[Decemberof2010]

Mmm very interesting 10 day trend video thanks for that. At the most they think the lows will only get as far as central uk meaning significant snow here and mild weather gets no further.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Mmm very interesting 10 day trend video thanks for that. At the most they think the lows will only get as far as central uk meaning significant snow here and mild weather gets no further.

hopefully like a Feb '94

[Phil Blake]

Interesting and well presented vid. The only thing certain is the uncertainty. Nothing fully dismissed as yet but maybe we will see more disruption to the low in the next few days.  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Oh dear 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

55 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Oh dear 

Against the 19th century data set perhaps.

 

Maybe try analysing against the latest dataset like 1991-20 (with the global warming taken into consideration) ??!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[joggs]

Further outlook looks underwhelming compared the models. Heaviest of snow showers ne and wintry showers at times may spread from east.

Confused lol.

[drulad]

I would be surprised if the METO outlook does not update fairly significantly in the course of the next few days. All the models seem to be pointing at something quite significant at times. Could we possibly see a red warning at some stage?

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

Thursday 18 Feb - Thursday 4 Mar

Very low confidence for the middle of the month as there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. This produces a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/