Meto Uk Further Outlook

[78/79]

On 08/01/2021 at 14:28, Battleground Snow said:

"Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas."

 

This paragraph screams they don't know what is going to happen and are covering all bases. I wouldn't take too much notice of these updates until the impact of the SSW becomes clearer.

Normally the Met O only fully commit themselves at the point that their cars are stuck in the car park. 

[ALL ABOARD]

I don't know why I bother looking at these anymore. 

I'd honestly be shocked if a professional meterologist is writing that. 

There is no flow to the sentences and it's almost like they write a sentence and then add a bit after it whilst glancing back at the charts. 

 

Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west.

So umm not drier then? 

[northwestsnow]

It is quite a non committal outlook from Exeter.

Which is perhaps not unexpected given the ongoing SSW...

There is an element of cover all bases ,the theme seems to be a weaker Atlantic later in the month , very difficult to pin down at this range.

[Paul Sherman]

Sounds pretty simple to understand to me and utterly pointless for them to even write this garbage

Its going to be

Sunny, Dry, Wet with Rain, Windy and Calm with Snow and Frost and Fog, then some above average, normal and below average temperatures along with some storms and a bit more sun.

I could have written it in 2 lines 

[johnholmes]

I do smile at the comments from some folk, it is after all so easy to write a weather forecast.

[ALL ABOARD]

41 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do smile at the comments from some folk, it is after all so easy to write a weather forecast.

Tag me next time John. 

Nothing to do with the forecasting, it's the contradictory sentences that have no flow. 

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by ALL ABOARD

[Puddy Galore]

39 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I do smile at the comments from some folk, it is after all so easy to write a weather forecast.

I do actually have a sympathy with them trying to write these especially when they are not sure what is going to happen weather wise but perhaps they need to write them differently.  They literally cover every possible outcome, which makes them come across as contradictory.  Perhaps they would be best just saying they cannot give a definitive forecast given the ongoing fluidity of the weather models due to uncertainty caused by “x” or “y” .  At the moment these forecasts are just crazy. 

[Borei]

6 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I don't know why I bother looking at these anymore. 

I'd honestly be shocked if a professional meterologist is writing that. 

There is no flow to the sentences and it's almost like they write a sentence and then add a bit after it whilst glancing back at the charts. 

 

Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west.

So umm not drier then? 

There's no doubt that these forecasts are poorly written and constructed from a plain English and grammar perspective. 

At @johnholmes, it's not the meteorological content that's the issue, it's the words that are chosen to convey the message. 

I really feel that as a supposedly premier met organisation, and with this being their main public facing content, they should take more care to ensure that the wording is appropriate. It needs to be clear, relatively easy to understand, and coherent. Too often it isn't, and frankly, whatever the quality of the underlying science, the presentation of the message is very poor and that's not good enough. 

[damianslaw]

Met Office very rarely call for very cold conditions, only when very certain. The outlook leaves room for them to utter such words, but quite right they are not saying this just yet.. there has been little change for about a week or so now with there longer range forecast for late January, and it still suggests to me, deep cold trough to our east, strong heights to our north and north west, and lower heights to our SW throwing fronts NW but meet resistance, classic slider territory and battleground scenario. The north in such a set up would be very cold indeed in late January.

[Battleground Snow]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Met Office very rarely call for very cold conditions, only when very certain. The outlook leaves room for them to utter such words, but quite right they are not saying this just yet.. there has been little change for about a week or so now with there longer range forecast for late January, and it still suggests to me, deep cold trough to our east, strong heights to our north and north west, and lower heights to our SW throwing fronts NW but meet resistance, classic slider territory and battleground scenario. The north in such a set up would be very cold indeed in late January.

Agree with this, I remember even when the 2018 cold spell was been shown by virtually all models and ensembles at day 7-8 they didnt change the wording to reflect this untill the last minute.

 

I am hoping for a very subtle change to pop up today with the word very cold at least mentioned, however they might give it another 24-48 hours.

I use these updates as a tool to confirm that we are heading down the route  the models are showing, as I think they are designed for general public viewing, not us obsessed netweather coldies.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Scandinavian High.]

Met office update seems a downgrade to yesterday snow on hills in north very cold gone from yesterday.

 

Friday 15 Jan - Sunday 24 Jan

A dry day for most on Friday before outbreaks of rain spread from the northwest later in the day. Over the weekend and into the following week rather unsettled conditions will develop across the UK. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year.

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 15 Jan - Sunday 24 Jan

A dry day for most on Friday before outbreaks of rain spread from the northwest later in the day. Over the weekend and into the following week rather unsettled conditions will develop across the UK. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year.

Sunday 24 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Met office update seems a downgrade to yesterday snow on hills in north very cold gone from yesterday.

 

Friday 15 Jan - Sunday 24 Jan

A dry day for most on Friday before outbreaks of rain spread from the northwest later in the day. Over the weekend and into the following week rather unsettled conditions will develop across the UK. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year.

 

Looks about the same . They’ve included everything lol . I didn’t see a mention of very cold in there update yesterday ?? 

[Scandinavian High.]

8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Looks about the same . They’ve included everything lol . I didn’t see a mention of very cold in there update yesterday ?? 

Yes my mistake colder spells for all  areas been removed .

Edited January 10, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[northwestsnow]

Still relatively non committal..

If we see a GFS 6z para look likely that outlook will upgrade over the next 48 hours IMO.

Edited January 10, 2021 by northwestsnow

[damianslaw]

Can't see average temps for the north at least if expected conditions surface. Room for change.

[snowblind]

On 09/01/2021 at 16:03, Snowycat said:

I do actually have a sympathy with them trying to write these especially when they are not sure what is going to happen weather wise but perhaps they need to write them differently.  They literally cover every possible outcome, which makes them come across as contradictory.  Perhaps they would be best just saying they cannot give a definitive forecast given the ongoing fluidity of the weather models due to uncertainty caused by “x” or “y” .  At the moment these forecasts are just crazy. 

Maybe they should give percentages of possible scenarios, like they seem to do in the States. Would be more useful than basically mentioning everything.

[matty40s]

From Friday 17th...no possibility of ramping from this forecast....except for the N/S battleground later in the period.

 

A dry day for most on Friday before outbreaks of rain spread from the northwest later in the day. Over the weekend and into the following week rather unsettled conditions will develop across the UK. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Mon 11 Jan 2021

Sunday 24 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 16 Jan - Monday 25 Jan

Unsettled conditions are looking to transfer across from the Atlantic over the weekend, likely starting on Saturday but, if the system stalls, may occur later. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, with drier and clearer interludes between them. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year, especially in the north.

Sunday 24 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[legritter]

Any thoughts on todays exeter update , seems to be a repeat of sundays .cheers .

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, legritter said:

Any thoughts on todays exeter update , seems to be a repeat of sundays .cheers .

Looks pretty clear to me.

Turning below average with the chance of snow.

[legritter]

Thanks for replying Mountain Shadow, great forum this , cheers .

[KTtom]

The second part hasn't updated yet, it should be Monday to Monday.... as for the first part, hardly over exciting considering it covers the period the model output looks good....and is it me, I keep reading the first paragraph but my head can't compute it!

 

Unsettled conditions are looking to transfer across from the Atlantic over the weekend, likely starting on Saturday but, if the system stalls, may occur later. This will bring spells of rain to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, with drier and clearer interludes between them. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Some snow is also likely at times in the north, especially over high ground. Temperatures are uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be below normal for the time of year, especially in the north.

 

Edit: The extended has updated now but its exactly the same.

Edited January 11, 2021 by KTtom

[Methuselah]

Never mind guys, I've just rewritten it!

Unsettled conditions are looking to transfer across from the Atlantic over the weekend, likely starting on Saturday but, when the system stalls, will never happen at all. This will bring spells of snow to many areas, these perhaps accompanied by strong winds at times, with drier and clearer interludes between them. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of snowfall are likely to affect the south and west, with the best of any drier conditions more likely in the north and east. Extremely heavy snow is also likely at times everywhere, especially in and around Rotherhithe. Temperatures are not in the least bit uncertain during this period although current indications are for temperatures to be enormously below normal for the time of year, especially in the London area.

Edited January 11, 2021 by General Cluster

[Puddy Galore]

@KTtom I think what they mean is the systems are likely to transfer across the atlantic starting Saturday but it maybe after that if it all stalls .  It has to be said, as others have mentioned previously, very poor writing indeed.  Otherwise I don’t think they have a scoobydoo what the weather will do going forward.