Meto Uk Further Outlook

[danthetan]

Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year. 

[Howie]

7 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year. 

So strange, there's no indication of that on the models really

[Sceptical]

13 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Met Office see the High pressure closer to the uk cutting off any northerly feed into the new year. 

Typical UK winter weather. Certainly an improvement on last year.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 28 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

It will be staying unsettled through to the end of December with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, but also some longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be below average with snow expected over hills, but this is also likely to fall to lower levels at times, especially but not restricted to the north. It will be often windy too, with a risk of coastal gales, although there are signs for lighter winds in central and eastern areas bringing potential fog. Going into early January there are signs that more settled weather will develop, particularly across western areas of the country. Should this occur, overnight frosts will become more widespread and there are likely to be morning fog patches. Temperatures are likely to be remaining below average.

Wednesday 6 Jan - Wednesday 20 Jan

A continuation of rather cold conditions look most likely to persist through the early part of January. A decent amount of fine and dry weather is likely to persist too with western areas likely drier than average. Eastern areas have the greatest chance of seeing wintry showers at times. By mid-January confidence in the prevailing weather patterns becomes much more uncertain, but for now a mixture of mild and unsettled periods, with colder, drier spells is the most likely outcome.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[SLEETY]

51 minutes ago, Howie said:

So strange, there's no indication of that on the models really

These 10 day trend forecasts never seem that accurate, and they must be using some other model to suggest high pressure sitting over the UK by end of the new year,. The models we look at aren't suggesting that. 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

These 10 day trend forecasts never seem that accurate, and they must be using some other model to suggest high pressure sitting over the UK by end of the new year,. The models we look at aren't suggesting that

Thank you! Honestly seriously confused by that lol. I won't pay attention to it then 

[phil nw.]

Yes no sign of a UK high like the video showed in current models,that we see.

I could see perhaps our trough edging a little further east in time with a ridge moving closer in from the west but nothing i have seen suggest a high cell right over us-in 10 days anyway.

Time will tell as they say.

[Winterdarkness]

Why is metoffice showing high pressure over the uk in January? I’m so done 

[DanDorsetUK]

Think the Metoffice have lost the plot to be honest even there statement yesterday was crazy. Time will tell

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

The output continues to be outstanding for cold prospects.....but this forecast from the met is almost annoying....if it turns to be correct whilst at this juncture all major models are showing something completely different, It does make me wonder why we look at them at all ......slight over reaction

Just for balance, the METO extended forecast was going for a settled second half of June this year, even though all of the model output available to us suggested otherwise. Overnight, the METO forecast flipped. As I said before, they always seem to be behind the curve.

Of course, they may turn out to be correct. But If ECM sides with GFS, I wouldn’t worry.

[DanDorsetUK]

4 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

Why is metoffice showing high pressure over the uk in January? I’m so done 

Well its us Amateurs vs the Met Office now then! Game on!

[snowice]

14 minutes ago, Howie said:

I was just saying how much this has completely baffled me

Don't worry by tommorow it will be gone still a full 10 days away.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Completely baffled by that Metoffice video forecast I have to admit.

[SLEETY]

Met office 10 day trend a few weeks ago was wrong 48 hours ahead, it went for sunny skies and we never saw the sun at all in that timeframe lol, so failed 48 hours ahead, nevermind 10 days ahead. 

I commented on their channel but no reply!! 

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think there are enough features in the flow to keep us entertained !  High pressure mr Met office?! Really ?!? 

think metO could be embarrassed.

[Chris Smith]

Just watched the Met Office 10 day trend.

Apart from a couple of sleety days early next week, it doesn't look like much at all - and definitely seems at odds to the upbeat mood in here!

[ScottSnow]

45 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I wouldn’t worry tbh.. 

Looking at the bbc monthly forecast that was updated today it looks like they are now favouring a lengthy cold spell especially for northern areas.

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

Just watched the latest metO weather ahead & they think beginning on Jan, high pressure will be over the UK settling things down & dry - where is this being shown because I haven’t seen that on all the 3 models?

The MetO don’t allow all their products to be freely available. In addition expect human interpretation of the output. And finally I think there is a political slant to all MetO dealings with snow and ice. They do not like making wintry predictions a week or more out... firstly because it whips up the media, secondly because it can leave them with egg on face, and thirdly because it can impact human behaviour. Consider the implications on public buying at shops and supermarkets of Covid blockades, Brexit no-deal and then reports of potential snow. Nothing in the world of outward facing public communications happens by chance. Do we really think Schapps believed there were only 147 lorries stuck in Kent as he issued his public press broadcast the other day? Ha. Machinations within machinations.......

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The MetO don’t allow all their products to be freely available. In addition expect human interpretation of the output. And finally I think there is a political slant to all MetO dealings with snow and ice. They do not like making wintry predictions a week or more out... firstly because it whips up the media, secondly because it can leave them with egg on face, and thirdly because it can impact human behaviour. Consider the implications on public buying at shops and supermarkets of Covid blockades, Brexit no-deal and then reports of potential snow. Nothing in the world of outward facing public communications happens by chance. Do we really think Schapps believed there were only 147 lorries stuck in Kent as he issued his public press broadcast the other day? Ha. Machinations within machinations.......

I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

This said, why make the video in the first place then.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

This said, why make the video in the first place then.

Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed. It wasn’t a throw away comment or just included in the text, they have shown this chart. It must be from Mogreps as UKV doesn’t that far? 

No model i have looked at is suggesting that for the new year!  Admit I haven’t done all the ensembles, though!

[Winterdarkness]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I have to admit, my thought was that perhaps they don't want to or have been told not induce panic buying in an already sensitive situation. 

In the modelling we see, maybe 10-15% of progressions are modelled as per Metoffice. 

This said, why make the video in the first place then.

I totally agree with this 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

That rings a bell!  Doesn’t MOGREPS and the thing they call DECIDER have 30 different synoptic patterns for UK weather that they categorise into?  I remember viewing a PowerPoint on it. I think you’ve got that right. 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Regime 25/30 it says at the top. Looks like a climatological still IMO. I.e a synoptic example of a pattern with mean temperature deviation attached.

Looks like an MJO phase climatological still lol