Meto Uk Further Outlook

[damianslaw]

Surprised no comment on the longer range update, quite a change, and to be expected the short term and long term did not tie together. Now we have a suggestion of blocking to our north, hence reference to drier theme for NW,also mention of wintry precipitation and snow low levels, suggests NE feed. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised no comment on the longer range update, quite a change, and to be expected the short term and long term did not tie together. Now we have a suggestion of blocking to our north, hence reference to drier theme for NW,also mention of wintry precipitation and snow low levels, suggests NE feed. 

Not having seen it might be a clue...? What does it say -- blizzards for the foreseeable?

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not having seen it might be a clue...? What does it say -- blizzards for the foreseeable?

No, it says immediate outlook 15 days below average, 30 day, near or a little below but some milder weather possible, some snow at low levels possible but sketchy. Key point is drier theme in NW at first, in time rest of UK dry frost and fog, quote seasonal. I'd take a dry cold frosty Christmas .

[LRD]

In the last couple of updates before today's, the longer range forecasts were talking about slightly above normal temps as we headed into the 2nd half of Dec. That's completely flipped to today's far colder update. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by LRD

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 6 Dec - Tuesday 15 Dec

Unsettled and rather cold conditions likely to continue into this period, with spells of rain and heavy showers for most. Any snow is most likely over the hills in the north but there is a chance of snow falling to lower levels at times. The heaviest and most frequent showers most likely affecting eastern and southern areas, with a possibility of more settled weather towards the northwest. Windy at times with a chance of coastal gales. There will still be some drier and brighter weather at times and should any more settled interludes develop, overnight frosts will be more widespread along with a greater chance of fog patches. Temperatures will likely be below average for this period.

Tuesday 15 Dec - Tuesday 29 Dec

Remaining changeable during this period with outbreaks of rain and showers at times, particularly in the east and the south. Snow remains most likely over the hills but could still fall to lower levels at times. It is likely that drier and settled conditions will continue in the northwest, with a possibility of these more settled conditions developing more widely towards the end of this period. This would bring more widespread overnight frosts along with some fog patches. Temperatures will overall likely be near, or a little below average, although some milder interludes are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[iceman1991]

That’s a great update 

[Hotspur62]

In the space of 24 hours the extended MO outlook gone from temperatures near or slightly above average to near to slightly below average!That said,just goes to show the uncertainty atm with so many conflicting signals.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 7 Dec - Wednesday 16 Dec

Unsettled, mostly cold and occasionally frosty conditions expected to continue into this period, with spells of rain and heavy showers for most. Snow is most likely over the hills in the north but there is a chance of snow falling to lower levels at times, especially in the far north. Rain most frequent across the south, but will often extend across all areas. However, in the north there is a possibility of more settled weather developing at times, especially in the north-west. Often windy with coastal gales at times. However lighter winds expected early in this period will bring a risk of more extensive freezing fog which could be slow to clear, this true for other periods of lighter winds through the period.

Wednesday 16 Dec - Wednesday 30 Dec

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with outbreaks of rain and showers at times, particularly in the east and the south. Snow remains most likely over the hills but could still fall to lower levels at times. It is likely that drier and more settled conditions compared to normal will continue in the northwest, with a possibility of these extending more widely towards the end of the month. This would bring more widespread overnight frosts along with some fog patches. Temperatures will overall will most likely be near, or a little below average, although some milder interludes are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[iceman1991]

47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday 7 Dec - Wednesday 16 Dec

Unsettled, mostly cold and occasionally frosty conditions expected to continue into this period, with spells of rain and heavy showers for most. Snow is most likely over the hills in the north but there is a chance of snow falling to lower levels at times, especially in the far north. Rain most frequent across the south, but will often extend across all areas. However, in the north there is a possibility of more settled weather developing at times, especially in the north-west. Often windy with coastal gales at times. However lighter winds expected early in this period will bring a risk of more extensive freezing fog which could be slow to clear, this true for other periods of lighter winds through the period.

Wednesday 16 Dec - Wednesday 30 Dec

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with outbreaks of rain and showers at times, particularly in the east and the south. Snow remains most likely over the hills but could still fall to lower levels at times. It is likely that drier and more settled conditions compared to normal will continue in the northwest, with a possibility of these extending more widely towards the end of the month. This would bring more widespread overnight frosts along with some fog patches. Temperatures will overall will most likely be near, or a little below average, although some milder interludes are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sounds like they back away from cold abit from previous update 

[Don]

21 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Sounds like they back away from cold abit from previous update 

Don't know, sounds broadly the same as yesterday's update.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 8 Dec - Thursday 17 Dec

It is likely to be fairly settled initially with any rain, showers and hill snow confined to the peripheries of the country, within the largely settled areas frost and fog will likely be fairly prevalent. On balance it will then most likely transition to unsettled while remaining rather cold with further spells of rain and showers for most. A continued risk of snowfall, mostly over the hills in the north, but there is a risk of some snow falling to lower levels at times, again mostly in the north. Following the initial period of light winds, it is expected to be windy with coastal gales. A greater chance of some more settled interludes returning later in the period, with these allowing frost and fog to develop more widely once again.

Thursday 17 Dec - Thursday 31 Dec

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. As such outbreaks of rain and showers likely at times, particularly in the west with some snowfall possible, but again most likely over the hills. Conversely periods of drier and more settled are probable, which would bring more widespread overnight frosts along with some fog patches. Temperatures will overall most likely be near, or a little below average, although some short-lived milder interludes are possible in the unsettled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 9 Dec - Friday 18 Dec

Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Friday 18 Dec - Friday 1 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[andreas]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

I'm looking forward to a severe cold spell at the start of 2021 then (as generally the actual weather turns out to be the opposite of the MetO extended forecast)

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by andreas

[damianslaw]

At or below average temps last 2 weeks if Devember, I'll take that, dry frosty weather in north and west suggests heights to our NW, wintry showers to SE on a NE feed perhaps. Could also mean more of an easterly feed. Or low pressure to the south west and heights to the NE, bringing a SE feed..

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 10 Dec - Saturday 19 Dec

Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Saturday 19 Dec - Saturday 2 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 11 Dec - Sunday 20 Dec

Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Sunday 20 Dec - Sunday 3 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 12 Dec - Monday 21 Dec

Remaining unsettled and mild to start the period. Band of cloud, rain, and some Scottish hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin near normal or mild, but quickly trending to around average or slightly below average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Monday 21 Dec - Monday 4 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[damianslaw]

These updates continue to be very hesitant.. 

[chris55]

Those longer range forecasts are very consistent! With mention of the east and south being windier with ppn and the west north west drier.

This is describing an easterly flow with high pressure centred to the north. You’d think at this time of year that kind of set up would be cold enough for snowfall!
Confidence very low (as you’d expect).but it seems a consistent signal is there. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 13 Dec - Tuesday 22 Dec

Remaining unsettled and mild to start the period. A band of cloud, rain, and some Scottish hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west and north, whilst areas further east should remain drier for longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin near normal and continue to trend around average. However, a chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Tuesday 22 Dec - Tuesday 5 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Paul_1978]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 13 Dec - Tuesday 22 Dec

Remaining unsettled and mild to start the period. A band of cloud, rain, and some Scottish hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west and north, whilst areas further east should remain drier for longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin near normal and continue to trend around average. However, a chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Tuesday 22 Dec - Tuesday 5 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Hmmmm. This has now changed from:

"Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible."

To: "Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible"

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Hmmmm. This has now changed from:

"Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible."

To: "Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible"

A baffling update. The text for the extended hasn't changed a bit apart from that change you've highlighted. Weird. What they describe still suggests high pressure somewhere to the north and low pressure to the south, which would say to me that a cold (or at least below average) spell is likely. Very strange

[Summer Sun]

Monday 14 Dec - Wednesday 23 Dec

Remaining unsettled to start the period with bands of cloud, rain, and some hill snow in Scotland continuing to arrive from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west and north, whilst areas further east should remain drier for longer. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the east and northeast. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in the northern and western parts. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to begin near normal and continue to trend around average. However, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Wednesday 23 Dec - Wednesday 6 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely, particularly in the north and west, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. There is a possibility of drier weather and sunshine for a time during the festive period. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 15 Dec - Thursday 24 Dec

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further north and east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the east and northeast. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in the northern and western parts. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Thursday 24 Dec - Thursday 7 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely, particularly in the north and west, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. There is a possibility of drier weather and sunshine for a time during the festive period. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 16 Dec - Friday 25 Dec

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture of blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the north and east. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in southern and western parts, which may become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Friday 25 Dec - Friday 8 Jan

Confidence is low during this period, with forecast signals rather mixed. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely, particularly in the south and west, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. There is a possibility of more settled conditions, drier weather, and sunshine for a time during the festive period, particularly in the north and east. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. Conditions may become wetter and milder once again going into January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/