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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 2 Oct - Sunday 11 Oct

An unsettled period, with plenty of showers and some occasional longer spells of rain across much of the country, the heaviest and most widespread areas likely in the west or northwest, and only limited drier interludes. Often windy, with a risk of gales at times (potentially severe), particularly around coastal regions and within areas of more significant rainfall. With time, northern parts of the UK may tend to become drier and more settled overall, with low pressure systems tending to track further south. Feeling cold, especially so where there is persistent rain and strong winds. Frost is possible at night in any calmer period, becoming increasingly likely for the northern half of the UK later in this period.

Monday 12 Oct - Monday 26 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for mid-October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 3 Oct - Monday 12 Oct

An unsettled period, with plenty of showers and some occasional longer spells of rain across much of the country, the heaviest and most widespread areas likely in the west or northwest, and only limited drier interludes. Often windy, with a risk of gales at times (potentially severe), particularly around coastal regions and within areas of more significant rainfall. With time, northern parts of the UK may tend to become drier and more settled overall, with low pressure systems tending to track further south. Feeling cold, especially so where there is persistent rain and strong winds. Frost is possible at night in any calmer period, becoming increasingly likely for the northern half of the UK later in this period.

Tuesday 13 Oct - Tuesday 27 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for mid-October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 4 Oct - Tuesday 13 Oct

An unsettled picture is likely for this period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells as well as times of more prolonged rainfall. However, southern and western areas are expected to see the worst of these conditions with the most frequent and heaviest rainfall. Drier and calmer conditions could be seen at times, but likely only for short interludes. Largely windy for most of the country during this period, with a risk of gales at times, particularly along western and southwestern coasts. Overall, it is likely to feel rather cold as temperatures look set to be around average or below. During any of the brief calmer interludes overnight frost is also possible in the North.

Tuesday 13 Oct - Tuesday 27 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for mid-October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Monday 5 Oct - Wednesday 14 Oct

An unsettled picture is likely for this period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells as well periods of more prolonged rainfall at times. However, southern and western areas are expected to see the worst of these conditions with the most frequent and heaviest rainfall. Drier and calmer conditions could be seen at times, but likely only for short interludes. It will often be windy during this period, with a risk of gales at times, particularly along western and southwestern coasts. Overall, it is likely to feel rather cold as temperatures look set to be around average or below. During any of the brief calmer interludes overnight frost is also possible in the North.

Thursday 15 Oct - Thursday 29 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for mid-October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tuesday 6 Oct - Thursday 15 Oct

An unsettled picture is likely for this period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells as well as periods of more prolonged rainfall at times. However, southern and western areas are expected to see the most frequent and heaviest of the rainfall. Drier and calmer conditions could be seen at times, but likely only for short interludes. It will often be windy during this period, with a risk of gales at times, particularly along coasts in the west and southwest. Overall, it is likely to feel rather cold as temperatures look set to be around average or below. During any of the brief calmer interludes overnight frost is also possible in the North.

Friday 16 Oct - Friday 30 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday 7 Oct - Friday 16 Oct

Unsettled weather will dominate early in the period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells, as well as periods of more prolonged rainfall. Southern and western areas will likely see the most frequent and heaviest rainfall. Some periods of dry, calm conditions may occur at times. It will often be windy, sometimes with a risk of gales, particularly along west and south-western coasts. It will likely feel rather cold. Later in the period, a potential change in the weather is signalled around mid-October. Here, further rain and strong winds are likely, but spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions will allow frost and fog to form more readily, particularly in the north, and linger well into the daytime.

Friday 16 Oct - Friday 30 Oct

A potential change in the weather is signalled around the middle of October. Whilst further rain and strong winds are likely at times, spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions would allow frost and fog to form more readily. At this time of year, there is potential for fog to linger well into the daytime. Overall, temperatures probably recovering close to the seasonal average for October.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Thursday 8 Oct - Saturday 17 Oct

Unsettled weather will dominate early in the period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells, as well as periods of more prolonged rainfall. Southern and western areas will likely see the most frequent and heaviest rainfall. Some periods of dry, calm conditions may occur at times. It will often be windy, sometimes with a risk of gales, particularly along west and south-western coasts. It will likely feel rather cold. Later in the period, a potential change in the weather is signalled around mid-October. Here, further rain and strong winds are likely, but spells of fine and dry weather could become more widespread and long-lived. At night, these calmer conditions will allow frost and fog to form more readily, particularly in the north, and linger well into the daytime.

Sunday 18 Oct - Sunday 1 Nov

Towards late October, it is likely there will be a return to unsettled conditions, with plenty of rain and showers. However, there will continue to be some interludes of dry and settled conditions. The winds will generally be light, but some spells of windy weather will develop at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to recover to close to the seasonal average for October, to feel normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 9 Oct - Sunday 18 Oct

Unsettled weather is likely to dominate early in the period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells and periods of more prolonged rainfall. The best of any drier interludes will be in eastern and southern parts of the UK. It will feel rather cold and often be windy, with a risk of gales especially in the north and west. It is expected to turn drier and more settled overall through the following week with spells of fine weather between the bands of rain becoming much more widespread and long-lived. Temperatures should begin to return to near normal for the time of year, although overnight these calmer conditions will allow frost and fog to form more readily, particularly in the north, which could linger well into the daytime.

Monday 19 Oct - Monday 2 Nov

Towards late October, it is likely there will be a return to more frequent unsettled conditions, with plenty of rain and showers punctuated by briefer, drier and more settled spells. Often windy, with potential for gales, most likely in the northwest, whilst winds will generally be lighter towards the south-east. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around or just above the seasonal average for October, with an increasing chance of frost and fog in any clearer spells, in line with climatology.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 10 Oct - Monday 19 Oct

Unsettled weather is likely to dominate early in the period, with all parts of the country seeing showery spells and periods of more prolonged rainfall. The best of any drier interludes will be in eastern and southern parts of the UK. It will feel rather cold and often be windy, with a risk of gales especially in the north and west. It is expected to turn drier and more settled overall through the following week with the spells of fine weather between the bands of rain becoming much more widespread and long-lived. Temperatures should begin to return to near normal for the time of year, although overnight these calmer conditions will allow frost and fog to form more readily, particularly in the north, which could linger well into the daytime.

Tuesday 20 Oct - Tuesday 3 Nov

Towards late October, it is likely there will be a return to more frequent unsettled conditions, with plenty of rain and showers, although periods of drier and more settled weather may still occur. Winds will probably be light for many parts of the UK, although spells of windier weather may develop at times and it may become generally windier later in the period. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around or just above the seasonal average for October, with an increasing chance of frost and fog in any clearer spells, in line with climatology.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 11 Oct - Tuesday 20 Oct

More settled conditions are expected to develop from the west through October, with western/northwestern areas becoming dry with sunny spells and light winds at first. Showers are likely to continue in the east/southeast at the start of this period, whilst central and eastern areas remain rather windy. The more settled conditions will spread across the UK with many places seeing a good deal of fine and dry weather by the end of the period. However, some eastern/southeastern areas may experience further showery spells. The far northwest may also remain cloudier with perhaps some rain at times. Temperatures are generally expected to remain below average, feeling rather cold. The more settled weather also brings an increased risk of overnight fog and frost, with fog potentially lingering well into the day.

Wednesday 21 Oct - Wednesday 4 Nov

The settled conditions are likely to continue for the first half of this period, with most of the UK seeing dry spells with light winds. Spells of wind and rain may occur, but these are expected to only be short interruptions to the overall fine conditions. However, confidence drops as we move into early November. Unsettled weather looks set to return around this time, bringing rain and wind to most places, with Northern and Western areas likely to see the worst of these conditions. The low confidence brings uncertainty to temperatures, but they are expected to be around average for this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Monday 12 Oct - Wednesday 21 Oct

Dry conditions are likely to round out the weekend with sunny spells and light winds for most parts of the UK. During the first part of next week, some outbreaks of rain are expected to spread eastwards across most of the UK, but once cleared, it will leave many areas fine and settled for the remainder of this period. Some showers may affect the southeast at times and the far northwest may be cloudier, perhaps with some periods of rain, otherwise many places will be largely dry. Temperatures are generally expected to be rather cold or near normal, with increasing likelihood of overnight frosts. The settled weather also brings an increased risk of overnight fog and frost, with fog potentially slow to clear and lingering well into the daytime.

Thursday 22 Oct - Thursday 5 Nov

Settled conditions are likely across much of the UK early in this period. Some spells of wind and rain may occur, but these are expected to only be short interruptions to the predominantly fine and dry conditions. However, confidence drops by the time we move into early November. Unsettled weather looks set to return around this time, bringing rain and wind to most places, with northern and western areas likely to see the worst of these conditions. The low confidence brings uncertainty to temperatures, but they are expected to be around average for this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday 14 Oct - Friday 23 Oct

Turning generally more settled in the north and northwest by the middle of next week and lasting into next weekend, with dry and bright spells likely. Meanwhile a cloudier, breezier picture in the east and southeast with more showery conditions, whilst some sporadic outbreaks of cloud and rain may also make way into southwest and western parts of the UK at times. Occasional bands of more persistent rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, may progress a bit further north across the country from next weekend onwards, bringing prolonged wet spells. This theme is likely to remain largely similar into the week after next. Temperatures expected to be rather on the cold side in most areas with overnight frosts and patchy mist and fog likely to occur, particularly in the northwest.

Saturday 24 Oct - Saturday 7 Nov

Confidence becomes low towards the end of the month. However, the early part of the forecast period will likely see a gradual transition from the longer settled spells being in north and northwest with more prevalent rain and showers in the south, to a generally more unsettled pattern across the UK. Rain and showers may turn wintry over high ground in the north and northwest, whilst there will also be the odd brief settled spell at times during this period. Temperatures likely to stay at or just below average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 14 Oct - Friday 23 Oct

Turning generally more settled in the north and northwest by the middle of next week and lasting into next weekend, with dry and bright spells likely. Meanwhile a cloudier, breezier picture in the east and southeast with more showery conditions, whilst some sporadic outbreaks of cloud and rain may also make way into southwest and western parts of the UK at times. Occasional bands of more persistent rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, may progress a bit further north across the country from next weekend onwards, bringing prolonged wet spells. This theme is likely to remain largely similar into the week after next. Temperatures expected to be rather on the cold side in most areas with overnight frosts and patchy mist and fog likely to occur, particularly in the northwest.

Saturday 24 Oct - Saturday 7 Nov

Confidence becomes low towards the end of the month. However, the early part of the forecast period will likely see a gradual transition from the longer settled spells being in north and northwest with more prevalent rain and showers in the south, to a generally more unsettled pattern across the UK. Rain and showers may turn wintry over high ground in the north and northwest, whilst there will also be the odd brief settled spell at times during this period. Temperatures likely to stay at or just below average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The above suggest high pressure to the north west second half of October hence the colder drier conditions for the NW, and wetter conditions for the SE, before a change to a colder NW flow as we end October and move into November with heights migrating to our west - mid atlantic high with trough anchoring down from the NW, jet buckled, alinged NW-SE, UK on the colder side, hence cold wetter conditions for the north and west. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Thursday 15 Oct - Saturday 24 Oct

Turning generally more settled in the north and northwest by the middle of next week and lasting into next weekend, with dry and bright spells likely. Meanwhile a cloudier, breezier picture in the east and southeast with more showery conditions here. This theme is likely to remain largely similar into the start of next week, with the most settled conditions across the far north of the UK and a few showers continuing to affect some eastern areas, before more organised cloud and rain tries to spread in from the southwest later. Temperatures are expected to be rather on the cold side in most areas with overnight frosts and patchy mist and fog likely to occur, particularly in the northwest.

Sunday 25 Oct - Sunday 8 Nov

Confidence becomes low towards the end of the month. However, the early part of the forecast period will likely see a gradual transition to a generally more unsettled pattern across the whole of the UK. Spells of rain and showers are likely, with these turning wintry over high ground in the north and northwest. There may also be the odd settled spell at times during this period, but they are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures likely to stay at or just below average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Friday 16 Oct - Sunday 25 Oct

Turning generally more settled in the north and northwest by the end of the week and lasting into next weekend, with dry and bright spells likely. Meanwhile a cloudier, breezier picture in the east and southeast with more showery conditions here. This theme is likely to remain largely similar into the start of next week, with the most settled conditions across the far north of the UK and a few showers continuing to affect some eastern areas, before more organised cloud and rain tries to spread in from the southwest later. Temperatures are expected to be rather on the cold side in most areas with overnight frosts and patchy mist and fog likely to occur, particularly in the northwest.

Monday 26 Oct - Monday 9 Nov

Confidence becomes low towards the end of the month. However, the early part of the forecast period will likely see a gradual transition to a generally more unsettled pattern across the whole of the UK. Spells of rain and showers are likely, with these turning wintry over high ground in the north and northwest. There may also be the odd settled spell at times during this period, but they are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures likely to stay at or just below average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 17 Oct - Monday 26 Oct

Turning generally more settled in the north and northwest by the end of the week and lasting into next weekend, with dry and bright spells likely. Meanwhile a cloudier, breezier picture in the east and southeast with more showery conditions here. This theme is likely to remain largely similar into the start of next week, with the most settled conditions across the far north of the UK and a few showers continuing to affect some eastern areas, before more organised cloud and rain tries to spread in from the southwest later. Temperatures are expected to be rather on the cold side in most areas with overnight frosts and patchy mist and fog likely to occur, particularly in the northwest.

Tuesday 27 Oct - Tuesday 10 Nov

Confidence becomes low towards the end of the month. However, the early part of the forecast period will likely see a gradual transition to a generally more unsettled pattern across the whole of the UK. Spells of rain and showers are likely, with these turning wintry over high ground in the north and northwest. There may also be the odd settled spell at times during this period, but they are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures likely to stay at or just below average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Monday 19 Oct - Wednesday 28 Oct

A generally unsettled pattern is expected at the start of the period, with most areas seeing cloud, rain and showers, though with some short drier spells in between. The west of the UK will see the worst of these conditions, while the best of these dry intervals or any more settled weather is most likely to be found in eastern parts. Most areas of the UK will often be windy, with gales likely, perhaps severe near coasts. The wet and windy pattern is expected to continue through the period with longer periods of rain and showers at times. Temperature are expected to be around average throughout the period, with any overnight frost or fog generally unlikely.

Thursday 29 Oct - Thursday 12 Nov

Confidence becomes very low towards the end of the month. However, the generally unsettled, wet and windy weather is expected to continue through the end October. Currently a north westerly flow is expected, thus any showers or longer spells of rain are expected to be most prevalent in the west or north west, with showers increasingly likely to become wintery over higher ground. Towards the end of the period there is perhaps a greater chance that periods of more settled weather will occur. Temperatures will initially be around normal but will likely trend towards slightly below normal near November, as a result expect overnight frost and fog to become more likely in any settled spells with fog being very slow to clear.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tuesday 20 Oct - Thursday 29 Oct

A generally unsettled pattern is expected at the start of the period, with most areas seeing cloud, rain and showers, though with some short drier spells in between. The west of the UK likely seeing the worst of these conditions, while the best of these dry intervals or any more settled weather is most likely to be found in eastern parts. Most areas of the UK will often be windy, with gales likely, perhaps severe near coasts. The wet and windy pattern is expected to continue through the period with longer periods of rain and showers at times. Temperatures are expected to be around average throughout the period, with any overnight frost or fog generally unlikely.

Friday 30 Oct - Friday 13 Nov

Confidence becomes very low by the end of the month. However, the generally unsettled, wet and windy weather is expected to continue into November. Currently a north westerly flow is expected, thus any showers or longer spells of rain are expected to be most prevalent in the west or north west, with showers increasingly likely to become wintry over higher ground. Towards the end of the period there is perhaps a greater chance that periods of more settled weather will occur. Temperatures will initially be around normal but will likely trend towards slightly below normal near November, as a result expect overnight frost and fog to become more likely in any settled spells with fog being very slow to clear.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

After the slow moving trough over UK scenario, the above suggests a mid atlantic high then developing ridging north and perhaps a trough / low pressure diving through the UK from the north west with heights then toppling in behind but not sinking, hence the colder drier theme. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday 21 Oct - Friday 30 Oct

Rather unsettled conditions are expected to dominate the period, with outbreaks of rain and blustery showers in many parts of the UK, though the extent of which is low at this time. The focus for the heaviest and most frequent rain is across western areas, whilst rather windy conditions particularly in the northwest at times may pose a risk of gales or even severe gales mainly around coastal areas. Intermittent brighter and drier spells may also last for a time in all parts of the UK, with most of the more settled conditions perhaps most likely in eastern and southeastern parts. Overall, temperatures looking to be generally close to or a little below normal for the time of year.

Saturday 31 Oct - Saturday 14 Nov

Confidence is low for this period, but the generally unsettled wet and windy theme is expected to gradually transition to a more settled picture through early November, especially in the south of the UK. Elsewhere, showery and windier conditions may remain more prevalent in the north. Temperatures may dip slightly below normal in the more settled periods, allowing for an increasing likelihood of overnight frost and fog developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 24 Oct - Monday 2 Nov

Rather unsettled conditions are expected to dominate the period, with outbreaks of rain and blustery showers in many parts of the UK, though the extent of which is low at this time. The focus for the heaviest and most frequent rain is across western areas, whilst rather windy conditions particularly in the northwest at times may pose a risk of gales or even severe gales mainly around coastal areas. Intermittent brighter and drier spells may also last for a time in all parts of the UK, with most of the more settled conditions perhaps most likely in eastern and south-eastern parts. Overall, temperatures looking to be generally close to or a little below normal for the time of year.

Tuesday 3 Nov - Tuesday 17 Nov

Confidence is low for this period, but the generally unsettled wet and windy theme is expected to gradually transition to a more settled picture through early November, especially in the south of the UK. Elsewhere, showery and windier conditions may remain more prevalent in the north. Temperatures may dip slightly below normal in the more settled periods, allowing for an increasing likelihood of overnight frost and fog developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

The above suggests the azores high ridging north into Southern Britain with low pressure riding over the top hence the wetter conditions reserved for the north, question is whether the ridge holds or backs westwards to become a mid atlantic high and perhaps more of a NW flow as hinted at by some of the long range model output for mid November.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
On 04/02/2019 at 15:51, Earthshine said:

Okay, but can we please have a repeat of February 1998?

Just had a look back at my past posts and I was kinda spooked how my wish came true for a warm February that year!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sunday 25 Oct - Tuesday 3 Nov

Unsettled conditions are expected to dominate during the period, with most parts of the UK seeing plenty of cloud and outbreaks of rain and showers. It will often be windy, with a risk of gales or even severe gales, especially in coastal areas. The wettest and windiest weather is likely to be found in the west and north-west of the country. However, some brief bright and dry spells are still likely at times in all parts of the UK, with the most settled conditions probably found across eastern and south-eastern areas. Overall, temperatures are generally looking to be close to normal for the time of year. Conditions may turn more settled close to the end of the period, particularly in the south.

Wednesday 4 Nov - Wednesday 18 Nov

Confidence is currently low for this period but there is an increased chance of more settled weather during November, especially in the south of the UK. Showery and windier conditions may remain more prevalent in the north. Temperatures probably trending to normal overall, with overnight frost and fog becoming more likely in any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

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