Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 14 May - Saturday 23 May

To start the period, high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could be a chance of rain and showers from the south at times, as well as in the far northwest. Light winds across most areas, however, the far northwest and south could turn windier at times with a risk of gales along coasts. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK, especially in the east. Temperatures will continue to recover, but still feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Could warm up in places towards the end of the period.

Sunday 24 May - Sunday 7 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, particularly in the east. More unsettled conditions are likely to arrive in the south from northward extending showers. There will also be outbreaks of rain and showers across the west and northwest from the weak Atlantic mobility. Winds remaining light through most of the period. Temperatures should be rather warm for most, although there could still be the odd chilly night with some frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 15 May - Sunday 24 May

To start the period, high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could be a chance of rain and showers from the south at times, as well as in the far northwest. Light winds across most areas, however, the far northwest and south could turn windier at times with a risk of gales along coasts. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK, especially in the east. Temperatures will continue to recover, but still feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Could warm up in places towards the end of the period.

Monday 25 May - Monday 8 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, particularly in the east. More unsettled conditions are likely to arrive in the south from northward extending showers. There will also be outbreaks of rain and showers across the west and northwest from the weak Atlantic mobility. Winds remaining light through most of the period. Temperatures should be rather warm for most, although there could still be the odd chilly night with some frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 17 May - Tuesday 26 May

To start the period, high pressure should dominate with most parts of the UK seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and bright or sunny spells. The far north/northwest may turn less settled with a greater chance of cloudier skies, outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times here. Temperatures look to take an upward trend over the next two weeks with most areas becoming warm, especially in the south and east. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, there looks to be a continuation of the settled weather as high pressure stays in control. Most places should remain largely dry with plenty of brightness or sunshine as well as light winds.

Wednesday 27 May - Wednesday 10 Jun

Although with low confidence, this period looks to stay largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells for many. Despite the dominance of settled weather, this doesn't rule out some spells of rain or showers, with any prolonged rain more likely in the northwest. Temperatures generally trending on the warmer side with an increased chance of some very warm/hot spells in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Don]

Flaming June here we come?!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 19 May - Thursday 28 May

To start the period, high pressure should dominate with most parts of the UK seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and bright or sunny spells. The far north/northwest may turn less settled with a greater chance of cloudier skies, outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times here. Temperatures look to take an upward trend over the next two weeks with most areas becoming warm, especially in the south and east. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, there looks to be a continuation of the settled weather as high pressure stays in control. Most places should remain largely dry with plenty of brightness or sunshine as well as light winds.

Friday 29 May - Friday 12 Jun

Although with low confidence, this period looks to stay largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells for many. Despite the dominance of settled weather, this doesn't rule out some spells of rain or showers, with any prolonged rain more likely in the northwest. Temperatures generally trending on the warmer side with an increased chance of some very warm/hot spells in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 20 May - Friday 29 May

It is expected that this period will start very warm with good spells of long, fine and dry weather throughout. However, it is possible that following this, rain will develop across some western regions, perhaps spreading east at times whilst weakening. These unsettled periods carry the risk of strong winds, mainly for western areas, and rain may turn heavy at times, however confidence is low for this presently. There is a risk of a few thunderstorms forming ahead of any bands of rain. Probably becoming less warm, but temperatures remaining above average for the time of year. Towards the end of this period it's possible we will see a return of more settled conditions, with further dry and rather warm weather.

Saturday 30 May - Saturday 13 Jun

It is currently expected that we will see a return to drier, more settled conditions. Rain would likely be confined to the north and northwest, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the south at times. Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[mb018538]

Update 14/5 Friday 29 May - Friday 12 Jun

Temperatures generally trending on the warmer side with an increased chance of some very warm/hot spells in the south.

 

Update 15/5 Saturday 30 May - Saturday 13 

Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

So yesterday it was an increased chance of hot spells, today it’s a lower chance. Really helpful

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Update 14/5 Friday 29 May - Friday 12 Jun

Temperatures generally trending on the warmer side with an increased chance of some very warm/hot spells in the south.

 

Update 15/5 Saturday 30 May - Saturday 13 

Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

So yesterday it was an increased chance of hot spells, today it’s a lower chance. Really helpful

 

That's a significant downgrade and suggests to me the Atlantic is stirring into action now.

[Don]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

That's a significant downgrade and suggests to me the Atlantic is stirring into action now.

Bound to be some chopping and changing at that range.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 21 May - Saturday 30 May

It is expected that this period will start very warm with good spells of long, fine and dry weather throughout. However, it is possible that following this, rain will develop across some western regions, perhaps spreading east at times whilst weakening. These unsettled periods carry the risk of strong winds, mainly for western areas, and rain may turn heavy at times, however confidence is low for this presently. There is a risk of a few thunderstorms forming ahead of any bands of rain. Probably becoming less warm, but temperatures remaining above average for the time of year. Towards the end of this period it's possible we will see a return of more settled conditions, with further dry and rather warm weather.

Sunday 31 May - Sunday 14 Jun

It is currently expected that we will see a return to drier, more settled conditions. Rain would likely be confined to the north and northwest, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the south at times. Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[DAVID SNOW]

Overall Met seem to be going for an average first half of June.

atm.

[Summer Sun]

Friday 22 May - Sunday 31 May

It is expected that this period will start very warm with good spells of long, fine and dry weather throughout. However, it is possible that following this, rain will develop across some western regions, perhaps spreading east at times whilst weakening. These unsettled periods carry the risk of strong winds, mainly for western areas, and rain may turn heavy at times, however confidence is low for this presently. There is a risk of a few thunderstorms forming ahead of any bands of rain. Probably becoming less warm, but temperatures remaining above average for the time of year. Towards the end of this period it's possible we will see a return of more settled conditions, with further dry and rather warm weather.

Monday 1 Jun - Monday 15 Jun

It is currently expected that we will see a return to drier, more settled conditions. Rain would likely be confined to the north and northwest, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the south at times. Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 23 May - Monday 1 Jun

It is expected that this period will start very warm with good spells of long, fine and dry weather throughout. However, it is possible that following this, rain will develop across some western regions, perhaps spreading east at times whilst weakening. These unsettled periods carry the risk of strong winds, mainly for western areas, and rain may turn heavy at times, however confidence is low for this presently. There is a risk of a few thunderstorms forming ahead of any bands of rain. Probably becoming less warm, but temperatures remaining above average for the time of year. Towards the end of this period it's possible we will see a return of more settled conditions, with further dry and rather warm weather.

Tuesday 2 Jun - Tuesday 16 Jun

It is currently expected that we will see a return to drier, more settled conditions. Rain would likely be confined to the north and northwest, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the south at times. Temperatures are tending towards warm, and with a lower chance of it being hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[damianslaw]

The above suggests the dominance of the azores high, ridging and building NE at times before retracting back SW again and at times west to allow the atlantic to influence northern parts at least bringing cooler wetter weather here, with the SE always more prone to drier sunnier warmer weather - a very normal summer pattern, but perhaps earlier this year than normal.. caution for the summer as a whole.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 24 May - Tuesday 2 Jun

The beginning of this period is likely to see a return to more settled conditions, bringing plenty of fine and dry weather, with temperatures recovering to above average. However, the northwest of Scotland could still see some more unsettled conditions at times. Looking further ahead into the following week, it is likely that there may be some outbreaks of rain moving southwards across the UK, accompanied by light winds. Towards the end of this period we should begin to see high pressure building again, bringing plenty of sunshine, calm conditions and above average temperatures, particularly in the south and east of the UK. Although, there may still be some cloudier skies and rain in parts of the north and west at times.

Wednesday 3 Jun - Wednesday 17 Jun

The generally settled conditions should continue into this period, but may we may begin to see the occasional spell of unsettled weather later on. The rain is most likely to be confined to the northwest of the UK, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the southeast at times. Temperatures are initially expected to be above average, with a chance of it becoming very warm or hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Monday 25 May - Wednesday 3 Jun

The beginning of this period is likely to see a return to more settled conditions, bringing plenty of fine and dry weather, with temperatures recovering to above average. However, the northwest of Scotland could still see some more unsettled conditions at times. Looking further ahead into the first week, it is likely that there may be some outbreaks of rain moving southwards across the UK, accompanied by light winds. Towards the end of this period we should begin to see high pressure building again, bringing plenty of sunshine, calm conditions and above average temperatures, particularly in the south and east of the UK. Although, there may still be some cloudier skies and rain in parts of the north and west at times.

Thursday 4 Jun - Thursday 18 Jun

The generally settled conditions should continue into this period, but may we may begin to see the occasional spell of unsettled weather later on. The rain is most likely to be confined to the northwest of the UK, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the southeast at times. Temperatures are initially expected to be above average, with a chance of it becoming very warm or hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 26 May - Thursday 4 Jun

The beginning of this period should remain fairly settled with some cloud and outbreaks of rain across Scotland. It is likely these outbreaks of rain will ease and move southwards into England along with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to build across the UK, bringing plenty of fine and dry weather, with calm conditions. However, further cloud and rain may affect parts of the north and west at times, particularly the northwest of Scotland. There is also the possibility of the occasional unsettled spell across the country. Temperatures are expected to be above average across much of the country, particularly across more southern and eastern areas.

Friday 5 Jun - Friday 19 Jun

The generally settled conditions should continue into this period but the possibility of the occasional spell of unsettled weather remains. The rain is most likely to be confined to the northwest of the UK, with a slight risk of thundery outbreaks in the southeast at times. Temperatures are initially expected to be above average, with a chance of it becoming very warm or hot at times in the south, although probably returning towards average towards the middle of June, particularly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Leo97t]

I was looking back through some of the updates from late may 2018 - wording is virtually identical to today's

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 27 May - Friday 5 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Saturday 6 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 28 May - Saturday 6 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Sunday 7 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Friday 29 May - Sunday 7 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Monday 8 Jun - Monday 22 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Don]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 29 May - Sunday 7 Jun

Through the last week of May, many parts should be dry and settled at first, although thicker cloud is likely to bring some outbreaks of rain to central areas for a time. By the end of May outbreaks of rain are expected to affect parts of Scotland and some western areas of the UK, with warm conditions and a risk of thunderstorms breaking out across England ahead of this rain. Into next week, the rain across Scotland is likely to move away to the east, allowing dry and settled conditions to build across most parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be warm and above average in central and southern areas, but cooler in the north.

Monday 8 Jun - Monday 22 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Looking like a rather decent June there.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 30 May - Monday 8 Jun

Much of central and southeast England should see a good deal of dry and settled weather next weekend with plenty of sunshine, though a little breezy. Temperatures will generally be very warm, but there is the risk of some thunderstorms breaking out at times. Cloud and outbreaks of rain seem most likely for Scotland and some other northern and western areas, where it will probably feel cooler. Looking ahead, there appears to be a shift to a more unsettled regime at first. Cloud and spells of rain may spread to most parts of the UK, but will predominately remain in the northwest. Temperatures should return to around average and may go slightly below in places.

Tuesday 9 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[StretfordEnd1996]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 30 May - Monday 8 Jun

Much of central and southeast England should see a good deal of dry and settled weather next weekend with plenty of sunshine, though a little breezy. Temperatures will generally be very warm, but there is the risk of some thunderstorms breaking out at times. Cloud and outbreaks of rain seem most likely for Scotland and some other northern and western areas, where it will probably feel cooler. Looking ahead, there appears to be a shift to a more unsettled regime at first. Cloud and spells of rain may spread to most parts of the UK, but will predominately remain in the northwest. Temperatures should return to around average and may go slightly below in places.

Tuesday 9 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun

Mostly dry and settled during this period for most parts of the UK. Some spells of unsettled, wetter weather may develop at times, particularly across the north of the UK, but these are likely to be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be close to or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

There's clearly been something of a change of heart for the general incline regarding most of next week, with the wording specifically saying 'there appears to be a more unsettled regime at first' for the 30th-8th period

[mb018538]

Which proves yet again how poor these can be a lot of the time....If the very best professionals with all the data in the world can’t sniff out a pattern change, what hope do us mere mortals have?!