Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Don]

56 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

 yes i can see us hitting 18c in Feb

You could well be correct and that’s no joke!

[lassie23]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

It is typical Comms Dept stuff like you see in most large organisations these days and usually written by Uni-educated Comms execs, signed off by a really important  comms manager. Couldnt resist.

Management BS in other words lol

 

2 hours ago, snowray said:

Good goat!!

the chances of us seeing another white goatsmass are fading rapidly

[damianslaw]

The updated met office suggests some of that cold bottled up air invading northern parts in time, and perhaps more of a robust block setting up near the UK - indeed it suggests and increasingly amplified flow.. don't know why people are lambasting it - its quite plausible.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 13 Jan - Wednesday 22 Jan

Unsettled conditions at first across the northwest with a mixture of showers and spells of heavy rain at times accompanied by strong winds.Southeastern areas are likely to see more settled conditions but with some outbreaks of rain still possible at times. The more settled conditions should become widespread across the south towards the middle of the period, but further spells of rain in the far north and northwest are still possible. Towards the end of the period the settled conditions may become widespread across the country for a time which will increase the chance of frost and fog forming overnight. It will be mild to start with temperatures dropping back to around average to rather cold across the south in any prolonged settled spells.

Wednesday 22 Jan - Wednesday 5 Feb

During the last couple of weeks of January, the northwest should see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times in the north during colder interludes. Southern areas will likely see prolonged spells of dry weather, which could bring overnight frosts and fog. Temperatures tending to stay above average, but they could fluctuate once a more changeable theme is re-established. There could be some cold spells in the south if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 14 Jan - Thursday 23 Jan

Unsettled conditions at first across the northwest with a mixture of showers and spells of heavy rain at times accompanied by strong winds. Southeastern areas are likely to see more settled conditions but with some outbreaks of rain still possible at times. The more settled conditions should become widespread across the south towards the middle of the period, but further spells of rain in the far north and northwest are still possible. Towards the end of the period the settled conditions may become widespread across the country for a time which will increase the chance of frost and fog forming overnight. It will be mild to start with temperatures dropping back to around average to rather cold across the south in any prolonged settled spells.

Thursday 23 Jan - Thursday 6 Feb

During the last couple of weeks of January, the northwest should see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times in the north during colder interludes. Southern areas will likely see prolonged spells of dry weather, which could bring overnight frosts and fog. Temperatures tending to stay above average, but they could fluctuate once a more changeable theme is re-established. There could be some cold spells in the south if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 15 Jan - Friday 24 Jan

Unsettled conditions will continue across most parts, especially the north and west, with the possibility of a further spell of wet and very windy weather affecting much of the UK later next week. Thereafter some longer dry, bright spells may begin to develop although changeable conditions will probably continue. By the start of the week after next and into late January, confidence decreases significantly. However there is a chance that settled weather may become widespread across the country, which will increase the chance of frost and fog, particularly for central and southern areas. It will be generally mild to start with, although turning rather cold, should more settled, quieter spells develop later in the month.

Friday 24 Jan - Friday 7 Feb

During this period, changeable conditions are more likely. The northwest of the UK will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 16 Jan - Saturday 25 Jan

Heavy rain and widespread gales, which could be severe in the west, to start the period. Unsettled conditions will continue across most parts through the end of the week, especially the north and west, with further wet and very windy weather likely. Thereafter some longer dry, bright spells may begin to develop although changeable conditions will probably continue. Towards the end of the period, confidence decreases significantly. However there is a chance that settled weather may become widespread across the country, which will increase the chance of frost and fog, particularly for central and southern areas. It will be generally mild to start with, although turning rather cold, should the quieter and more settled, spells develop later in the month.

Saturday 25 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Friday 17 Jan - Sunday 26 Jan

Although very unsettled conditions will continue to the end of this working week, the weather will probably settle down somewhat next weekend. Generally dry, bright weather will probably be established over many parts by Sunday and these more settled conditions may persist into the middle of next week and perhaps longer. With this it could become rather cold at times with widespread night frosts and fog patches. It will probably stay more unsettled and milder in the northwest with a greater chance of further rain and strong winds here, although a brief colder interlude with wintry showers is possible. Later in the period, confidence is very low. However there is a chance that more unsettled, milder conditions could become re-established, more widely across the UK.

Sunday 26 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[northwestsnow]

Or put simply, they are not sure where we are heading.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 18 Jan - Monday 27 Jan

Although very unsettled conditions will continue to the end of this working week, the weather will likely settle down somewhat next weekend. Generally dry, bright weather will probably be established over many parts by Sunday and these more settled conditions may persist into the middle of next week and perhaps longer. With this it could become rather cold at times with widespread night frosts and fog patches. It will probably stay more unsettled and milder in the northwest with a greater chance of further rain and strong winds here, although a brief colder interlude with wintry showers is possible. Later in the period, confidence is very low. However there is a chance that more unsettled, milder conditions could become re-established, more widely across the UK.

Monday 27 Jan - Monday 10 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 19 Jan - Tuesday 28 Jan

After a largely dry and bright day on Sunday, the settled conditions seem likely to continue into the middle of next week. Most places are expected to see a good deal of dry, quiet weather with plenty of bright or sunny spells throughout, especially in the south. During the overnight periods, it looks possible for fog patches to form, some of these slow to clear during the day. Through next week, it seems to turn somewhat colder, particularly across central and southern areas of the UK, with widespread frosts developing overnight at times. Towards the latter part of this period, the north/northwest may turn more unsettled with the arrival of wetter, winder and milder weather.

Tuesday 28 Jan - Tuesday 11 Feb

Through the end of January and into February, high pressure looks most likely to dominate across the UK, especially in the south. Looking further ahead, there seems to be a move to a broadly north/south split. The north and northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast, it should be drier and brighter with frost and fog likely overnight. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though may fluctuate with the passage of more changeable weather. There could be some colder spells in southern and central areas, should any more prolonged settled spells develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Monday 20 Jan - Wednesday 29 Jan

After a largely dry and bright weekend, the settled conditions seem likely to continue through Monday and into the middle of next week. Most places are expected to see a good deal of dry, quiet weather with plenty of bright or sunny spells throughout, especially in the south. During the overnight periods, it looks possible for fog patches to form, some of these slow to clear during the day. Through next week, it seems to turn somewhat colder, particularly across central and southern areas of the UK, with widespread frosts developing overnight at times. Towards the latter part of this period, the north/northwest may turn more unsettled with the arrival of wetter, winder and milder weather.

Wednesday 29 Jan - Wednesday 12 Feb

Through the end of January and into February, high pressure looks most likely to dominate across the UK, especially in the south. Looking further ahead, there seems to be a move to a broadly north/south split. The north and northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast, it should be drier and brighter with frost and fog likely overnight. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though may fluctuate with the passage of more changeable weather. There could be some colder spells in southern and central areas, should any more prolonged settled spells develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

High pressure suits me fine as long as the mild, dreary, depressing and wet weather is kept at bay!

Edited January 15, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

High pressure suits me fine as long as the mild, dreary, depressing and wet weather is kept at bay!

Yes, high pressure would be a great improvement over what we’ve had recently!

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 22 Jan - Friday 31 Jan

After a frosty start on Wednesday, most places are expected to be cloudy but with a good deal of dry and calm weather. The odd spot of rain is possible, this becoming more persistent over the north of Scotland. Looking further into the week there is likely to be a north/south split; where the south will be dry and cloudy with light winds whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost.

Friday 31 Jan - Friday 14 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The southeast is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the southeast. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 23 Jan - Saturday 1 Feb

Into the weekend it is expected to be largely dry and settled with bright spells and light winds, although staying cloudy for most. This will continue for the south further into the following week, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Saturday 1 Feb - Saturday 15 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Friday 24 Jan - Sunday 2 Feb

Into the weekend, it will be staying cloudy for most with a risk of light rain or drizzle at times. However, it is expected to be largely dry and settled with bright spells and light winds. This will continue for the south further into the following week, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Sunday 2 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 24 Jan - Sunday 2 Feb

Into the weekend, it will be staying cloudy for most with a risk of light rain or drizzle at times. However, it is expected to be largely dry and settled with bright spells and light winds. This will continue for the south further into the following week, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Sunday 2 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Suggests the jet may align more on a nw-se axis aided by high pressure close to the sw which will ridge in at times to give southern parts a fair amount of dry weather before retreating back to allow a nw flow, much as is being shown by models latter part of Jan. A bit more wintry in feel than recent weeks. I will take it! Just one decent snowfall will do.. even if gone in 24 hrs.

[karyo]

It is the same update that they have been posting for a week or more now. I can't see what's wintry about it tbh.

[phil nw.]

No surprise at that. Same positive nao/ao pattern. Just a little colder briefly behind passing cold fronts with high pressure close to the south. Models will vary with detail and timings but no sign yet of an end to the basic mobile westerly picture . 

Edited January 19, 2020 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 25 Jan - Monday 3 Feb

Into the weekend, it will be staying cloudy for most. A spell of rain is likely for a time in the northwest, spreading southeast across most parts, accompanied by strengthening winds. Next week, it looks like the south will see the driest weather, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Monday 3 Feb - Monday 17 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 26 Jan - Tuesday 4 Feb

Sunday will turn more unsettled for most, with bands of rain moving southeast across the UK, accompanied by a strengthening wind. Heavy showers behind fronts could also bring some wintry precipitation to the hills of the north. Next week looks likely to remain unsettled, with Atlantic fronts making their way southeastwards across the UK. The north and west are likely to see the wettest and windiest spells, with the occasional risk of snow on higher ground. The south and east should stay slightly more settled, though there will still likely be some wet and windy periods. Any settled spells between fronts will lead to some brighter conditions and isolated overnight frosts, but these will likely be short-lived. Temperatures generally around average in the north and just above in the south.

Tuesday 4 Feb - Tuesday 18 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that a more settled, anticyclonic pattern will begin to affect the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually move further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, with a large diurnal variation, if the more settled regime was to take control.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Don]

Frost looks to be about as good as it gets from that forecast if you want cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Don said:

Frost looks to be about as good as it gets from that forecast if you want cold.

Its a bit better though with the high moving further North, if that continued at the end of February then it could get far enough North to allow some bitterly cold weather.