Meto Uk Further Outlook

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 28 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec

Thursday looks to be unsettled with areas of rain or showers initially. The rain may become lighter and patchier later allowing for some bright spells to develop. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yup.

Unless they know something we don't that update doesn't stack up ..

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup.

Unless they know something we don't that update doesn't stack up ..

Will we see a backtrack tomorrow?

[Scandinavian High.]

A big ecm coming up and all other models will follow in morning .

[Summer Sun]

Friday 29 Nov - Sunday 8 Dec

Friday looks to be a drier and brighter day for most areas. Early fog patches slow to clear in the north to start. Becoming cloudier in the far southwest with a chance of some rain later. Temperatures rather cold, especially in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[northwestsnow]

Exeter sticking to their cold guns..

[swfc]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter sticking to their cold guns..

Yep just like last year!!!

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 30 Nov - Monday 9 Dec

Saturday will be dry and cold for most with plenty of sunshine once any freezing fog patches clear. A few coastal wintry showers are likely across northern and northeastern Scotland. Turning cloudier in the south throughout the day with outbreaks of rain possible, especially in the far southwest. Feeling cold with strong winds and widespread frost possible overnight away from the far south. There is also a risk of gales in exposed parts. The start of December looks to remain cold for many with overnight frost and fog possible with a risk of ice. Any showers could be wintry in the north and over the hills at times further south. It is likely to remain dry elsewhere.

Tuesday 10 Dec - Tuesday 24 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 1 Dec - Tuesday 10 Dec

There will be plenty of sunshine around on Sunday, however northern Scotland and northeast England may see some scattered, possibly wintry, showers throughout the day. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving into December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

Wednesday 11 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 1 Dec - Tuesday 10 Dec

There will be plenty of sunshine around on Sunday, however northern Scotland and northeast England may see some scattered, possibly wintry, showers throughout the day. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving into December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

Wednesday 11 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Its now flipped!!  -  Not much more than an hour after their teleconnections expert on their video talked about December being above average.

 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its now flipped!!  -  Not much more than an hour after their teleconnections expert on their video talked about December being above average.

 

Its a garbage update for coldies though.

Snow for the mountains of scotland and rain pretty much every where else.

What a suprise.

[swfc]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its a garbage update for coldies though.

Snow for the mountains of scotland and rain pretty much every where else.

What a suprise.

I think it's standard UK winter weather.rubbish granted but it's what it is

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

I think it's standard UK winter weather.rubbish granted but it's what it is

Well yes, but im 47 next and i am convinced getting sustained cold to our shores is now like pulling teeth..better make the most of fri-tue as its beginning to look like there will be lots more rain on the way after that.

[swfc]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well yes, but im 47 next and i am convinced getting sustained cold to our shores is now like pulling teeth..better make the most of fri-tue as its beginning to look like there will be lots more rain on the way after that.

Yes poor outlook in honesty.you can dress it up or look for any background signals but it looks wet which isn't great for anyone!!

[Don]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its now flipped!!  -  Not much more than an hour after their teleconnections expert on their video talked about December being above average.

 

Their teleconnection expert doesn’t have input to these forecasts then?! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

Their teleconnection expert doesn’t have input to these forecasts then?! 

That is the point i am making, i know mapantz will get on his high horse again but its like their forecasts contradict, fine i know the contingency planners forecast is released it is only updated once a month, so for instance, if AFTER it is released or after that video with him explaining their methodology behind a mild winter forecast, suddenly the models flipped and a major split SSW started being modelled and at came to fruition, and rendered the whole winter sub 2c, i wouldn't have a problem, provided the change was then reflected in their January update, but in the Autumn, they still only reduced their forecast of it falling into the warmest category to 50% in October from 60% in September, for instance - if Dec (Yes i know it most definitely wont now) was a couple of degrees below average, you would expect a dramatic reduction in Jan to around 2% IMO, i would not be happy if they only reduced it from 40 to 35% or something like that, obviously would depend on what exactly the modelling was like for Jan and Feb at that point and most pertinently the next 2 weeks given that's where the highest skill lies in forecasting. Where my problem is is when the forecasts contradict at the point of release, its like there is either 2 different departments are not liaising with each other or they are using a seasonal model for the whole 3 month period instead of using all the tools available for the first month and then using just the seasonals for the long range.

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is the point i am making, i know mapantz will get on his high horse again but its like their forecasts contradict, fine i know the contingency planners forecast is released it is only updated once a month, so for instance, if AFTER it is released or after that video with him explaining their methodology behind a mild winter forecast, suddenly the models flipped and a major split SSW started being modelled and at came to fruition, and rendered the whole winter sub 2c, i wouldn't have a problem, provided the change was then reflected in their January update, but in the Autumn, they still only reduced their forecast of it falling into the warmest category to 50% in October from 60% in September, for instance - if Dec (Yes i know it most definitely wont now) was a couple of degrees below average, you would expect a dramatic reduction in Jan to around 2% IMO, i would not be happy if they only reduced it from 40 to 35% or something like that, obviously would depend on what exactly the modelling was like for Jan and Feb at that point and most pertinently the next 2 weeks given that's where the highest skill lies in forecasting. Where my problem is is when the forecasts contradict at the point of release, its like there is either 2 different departments are not liaising with each other or they are using a seasonal model for the whole 3 month period instead of using all the tools available for the first month and then using just the seasonals for the long range.

Totally agree, this is total inconsistency of message from the same organisation re the month ahead, and it has been the case through Autumn too.  Surely it can't be too much to get these to match?  But.  In defence of UKMO, I think the issue may be that the contingency planners is totally probabilistic, and this is a best guess.  I know from experience in my own line of work that that is a difficult match up with high uncertainty.  

[damianslaw]

Update to me suggests a fair bit of polar maritime air mixing with returning polar maritime air, rather than long drawn SW airstream.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 2 Dec - Wednesday 11 Dec

There will be plenty of sunshine around on Monday and dry for most. There may be the odd coastal shower in England and Wales, and northern Scotland and Northern Ireland may see some heavy rain. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving into December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

Thursday 12 Dec - Thursday 26 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Sceptical]

^^ Oh dear......

[Polar Maritime]

No change from the last update. Avg or rather below average temps.. I've no issues whatsoever with that for the 1st month of Winter.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

No change from the last update. Avg or rather below average temps.. I've no issues whatsoever with that for the 1st month of Winter.

With below average or average temps, the forecast should at least be saying some snow in the north possible especially higher ground. This shouts polar maritime air dominating quite a bit, with mid atlantic heights. A seasonal outlook.

[Mapantz]

On 26/11/2019 at 19:32, feb1991blizzard said:

That is the point i am making, i know mapantz will get on his high horse again but its like their forecasts contradict, fine i know the contingency planners forecast is released it is only updated once a month, so for instance, if AFTER it is released or after that video with him explaining their methodology behind a mild winter forecast, suddenly the models flipped and a major split SSW started being modelled and at came to fruition, and rendered the whole winter sub 2c, i wouldn't have a problem, provided the change was then reflected in their January update, but in the Autumn, they still only reduced their forecast of it falling into the warmest category to 50% in October from 60% in September, for instance - if Dec (Yes i know it most definitely wont now) was a couple of degrees below average, you would expect a dramatic reduction in Jan to around 2% IMO, i would not be happy if they only reduced it from 40 to 35% or something like that, obviously would depend on what exactly the modelling was like for Jan and Feb at that point and most pertinently the next 2 weeks given that's where the highest skill lies in forecasting. Where my problem is is when the forecasts contradict at the point of release, its like there is either 2 different departments are not liaising with each other or they are using a seasonal model for the whole 3 month period instead of using all the tools available for the first month and then using just the seasonals for the long range.

This is a great post.

It highlights the exact reason why some members shouldn't be looking at the meto's contingency planners pages. 

[Chesil View]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

This is a great post.

It highlights the exact reason why some members shouldn't be looking at the meto's contingency planners pages. 

I never do. They are so broadbrush as to be meaningless most of the time.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 3 Dec - Thursday 12 Dec

After a frosty start on Tuesday, it will be a dry day for many with plenty of sunshine. There may be the odd shower in England and Wales, whilst northern Scotland and Northern Ireland may see heavy rain. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving through December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

No update to the LFR

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/