Meto Uk Further Outlook

[davehsug]

As expected, the mostly settled extended period changes in 2 days to mostly unsettled. These forecasts are a waste of bandwidth 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, davehsug said:

As expected, the mostly settled extended period changes in 2 days to mostly unsettled. These forecasts are a waste of bandwidth 

Tut tut, having ago at a respected professional meteorological organisation - not like you - you would rip me to shreads if i said that!!    -    In all seriousness though, they are not always crap, though they have been poor lately, they were still mentioning an Easterly last winter long after i had given up, seemed to me that they had been so wrong for so long that they were so scared that if they dropped it and it materialised, they would be all over the front page of the tabloids, so they continued to have it as a background possibility - maybe a 10%, when it was more like less than 1%.

[davehsug]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Tut tut, having ago at a respected professional meteorological organisation - not like you - you would rip me to shreads if i said that!!    -    In all seriousness though, they are not always crap, though they have been poor lately, they were still mentioning an Easterly last winter long after i had given up, seemed to me that they had been so wrong for so long that they were so scared that if they dropped it and it materialised, they would be all over the front page of the tabloids, so they continued to have it as a background possibility - maybe a 10%, when it was more like less than 1%.

We just see it so often, winter, summer. They stick with a forecast for days on end, when it's obviously dodgy. This leads to people saying "Well the Met haven't changed & they have access to much more than us", only for them to do a complete 180 in 24 hours. I appreciate it may be unsatisfactory to change daily, but at least go with the latest updates and stop misleading people!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, davehsug said:

We just see it so often, winter, summer. They stick with a forecast for days on end, when it's obviously dodgy. This leads to people saying "Well the Met haven't changed & they have access to much more than us", only for them to do a complete 180 in 24 hours. I appreciate it may be unsatisfactory to change daily, but at least go with the latest updates and stop misleading people!

True and yes they do wait too much sometimes but also don't forget, once they take 5 or 6 days to change, when they then mention 'At the end of the period xxxx weather type is likely to prevail' that could just be the evolution as there is 6 days worth of new target period, they have to try and remain as seamless as possible.

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True and yes they do wait too much sometimes but also don't forget, once they take 5 or 6 days to change, when they then mention 'At the end of the period xxxx weather type is likely to prevail' that could just be the evolution as there is 6 days worth of new target period, they have to try and remain as seamless as possible.

Yep I suppose so. I could just really, really do with having a holiday that has a few days of decent usable weather as promised by the Met.... until 2 weeks out lol!

[Summer Sun]

Friday 30 Aug - Sunday 8 Sep

It will become more unsettled on Friday, especially in the north. Occasionally heavy rain or showers will be likely here, with the risk of strong winds and it will feel rather cool for the time of year. The south may remain dry, especially in the southeast where temperatures will be above the seasonal average. Over the weekend, and into the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will vary around normal, with a possibility of further warm spells.

Monday 9 Sep - Monday 23 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[davehsug]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 30 Aug - Sunday 8 Sep

It will become more unsettled on Friday, especially in the north. Occasionally heavy rain or showers will be likely here, with the risk of strong winds and it will feel rather cool for the time of year. The south may remain dry, especially in the southeast where temperatures will be above the seasonal average. Over the weekend, and into the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southeastern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will vary around normal, with a possibility of further warm spells.

Monday 9 Sep - Monday 23 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That makes no sense at all. For 9-23 Sept, the predominant weather will be unsettled, but more settled conditions are expected around the middle of September. Which is it?

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 31 Aug - Monday 9 Sep

It will be unsettled this weekend. On Saturday, rain will gradually clear the southeast through the day, with sunshine and showers for much of the country. The showers will be heaviest in the north and west, with the risk of hail and thunder. Gales will be possible in the far northwest and it will feel cool for the time of year. The south will become drier on Monday but for the start of September, it will probably be fairly unsettled nationwide. The heavier rain will be most likely in the northwest, with southern parts receiving the longest dry and sunny spells. However, there will be a risk of thundery showers breaking out across the southeast at times. Temperatures will generally be on the cool side, especially in the north.

Tuesday 10 Sep - Tuesday 24 Sep

There are signals that changes in the weather patterns across the UK will become slow during this spell. At present it is considered that the predominate weather type will be unsettled conditions, leading to an increase in the chance for above average rainfall through September. However, more settled conditions are likely at times, especially around the middle of September, with temperatures likely to be near to or slightly above normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 1 Sep - Tuesday 10 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Wednesday 11 Sep - Wednesday 25 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Monday 2 Sep - Wednesday 11 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn should see rainy spells clearing to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the best of any dry weather across southern and southwestern areas. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights in sheltered spots in the north. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving unsettled spells interspersed with briefer settled interludes, with temperatures likely staying on the cool side.

Thursday 12 Sep - Thursday 26 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will become slowly evolving during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with briefer periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains quite a degree of uncertainty in the forecast into late September. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover pretty close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a little higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Don]

Liking the sound of the first half of September at least

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 3 Sep - Thursday 12 Sep

Changeable and, at times, unsettled weather is expected during the start of September. The first week of meteorological autumn will see spells of rain interspersed with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Most of the rain will be in the northwest, with some reasonable drier and brighter spells across southern parts. It will be windy at times, especially across the north. Temperatures are expected to be rather cool for the time of year, with some chilly nights and early mornings. As we head through the latter part of the period signals are mixed, but we are most likely to see weather patterns become slow to evolve giving changeable spells interspersed with brief settled interludes, with temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Friday 13 Sep - Friday 27 Sep

There are mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. After a cool start, temperatures are expected to recover close to average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It can stay a touch below normal towards the end for me.

Edited August 29, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 4 Sep - Friday 13 Sep

Through the second half of next week, cool and showery west or north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Wet and windy conditions may develop more widely for a time. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Saturday 14 Sep - Saturday 28 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 5 Sep - Saturday 14 Sep

Through the second half of next week, a cool and showery north-westerly flow is likely. However, there is likely to be a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather around, especially across southern parts of the UK, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the northwest. It will often be rather windy, especially in the north, with the risk of gales at times. Through next weekend, drier, quieter conditions may extend slowly southeast across the UK. For the following week, things are very uncertain. However, there will probably be spells of changeable, windy weather, especially for the north. More settled conditions in the south may develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely varying around normal or somewhat below.

Sunday 15 Sep - Sunday 29 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Friday 6 Sep - Sunday 15 Sep

The weekend will stay unsettled and probably windy at first, with showers or longer spells of rain, probably soon transferring from the northwest to eastern parts of the UK. Drier, brighter and quieter conditions will probably become established in the west and northwest of the UK and slowly extend to other areas over the course of the weekend. It will most likely be rather cool with some chilly nights in any quieter interludes. Into next week, confidence quickly becomes low. However, it will probably start changeable and sometimes windy, particularly in the north. Some drier, brighter and quieter spells may develop across the UK as we go towards the middle part of the month. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below.

Monday 16 Sep - Monday 30 Sep

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that weather patterns will evolve slowly during this period and that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 7 Sep - Monday 16 Sep

The weekend will be unsettled and probably windy at first, with showers or longer spells of rain. Then drier, brighter and quieter conditions will probably arrive in the west and northwest of the UK, before slowly extend to other areas over the course of the weekend. It will most likely be rather cool with some chilly nights under clear skies. Into next week, confidence quickly becomes low. However, it will probably start changeable with spells of rain at times, and sometimes windy, particularly in the north. Some drier, brighter and quieter spells may develop across the UK as we go towards the middle part of the month. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below.

Tuesday 17 Sep - Tuesday 1 Oct

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 8 Sep - Tuesday 17 Sep

It should be a chilly and bright start to Sunday for many and remaining largely dry too. Cloud builds through the afternoon but there should still be some bright or sunny spells. Perhaps breezy with light rain in the far northwest. Next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Wednesday 18 Sep - Wednesday 2 Oct

There are very mixed signals from the middle of September onwards but at present it seems most probable that the UK will see a fair amount of unsettled weather. Overall we should expect spells of rain or showers, which could be heavy at times, interspersed with brief periods of quieter and more settled weather. A more prolonged spell of settled weather may develop towards the end of September, but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to vary around average for the time of year and, perhaps, become a touch higher than average later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Monday 9 Sep - Wednesday 18 Sep

A dry and bright start to the day in the southeast on Monday but turning wet and windy later. Morning cloud and rain in the northwest clears to sunny spells to end the day. The rest of next week will probably be rather changeable with spells of rain. Some drier, brighter and quieter interludes expected too, these most frequent in the south. Windy at times, especially for the middle of next week nationwide and more generally through the course of the week in the north. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal or somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal with some chilly nights possible. Towards the end of the week though, there are signs that it may turn a little warmer by day.

Thursday 19 Sep - Thursday 3 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. Probably staying changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, so still some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Looking at this update there is a possibility for a slightly below average September which statistically bodes well for the winter ahead.

Early days though.

[DAVID SNOW]

Warm spell guaranteed then! lol.

[Don]

5 hours ago, karyo said:

Looking at this update there is a possibility for a slightly below average September which statistically bodes well for the winter ahead.

Early days though.

I agree with that.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 10 Sep - Thursday 19 Sep

Although a few showers may affect the far southeast during Tuesday, most areas will stay, dry with some sunshine for a time. Outbreaks of rain will move into northwestern areas through the afternoon and it will become windy, with a chance of coastal gales later. The remainder of the week is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there is a risk of gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times though.

Friday 20 Sep - Friday 4 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest. It will probably stay changeable as we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October, still with some wind and rain at times, but with some drier interludes too. As is typical for this time of year, the driest and brightest weather is most likely in the south, whilst the north or northwest will generally be more unsettled. Temperatures will most likely remain near to below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 11 Sep - Friday 20 Sep

Cloud and rain clear southeastwards during Wednesday with sunny spells and showers following. Winds will ease in the south through the day, but remaining windy in the north with a risk of local gales. The weather through the remainder of the week and the rest of the period is likely to stay rather changeable. There will be periods of rain, interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes, these most prolonged in the south. It will often be windy, especially in the north, where there will be gales at times. Temperatures are likely to range from around normal to somewhat below, so it will feel quite autumnal, especially during the mornings as some chilly nights are likely. Southern areas may see above average temperatures at times.

Saturday 21 Sep - Saturday 5 Oct

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, it will probably start unsettled and sometimes windy, particularly in the northwest, with the best of any drier and brighter interludes in the south and southeast. As we go through the rest of September and head into the start of October it could still be changeable with occasional spells of wet and windy weather, especially in the far northwest, but we could see some spells of drier and warmer weather at times elsewhere. Temperatures will most likely remain near to, or a little below average, with the coldest conditions across the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Don]

Their latest contingency forecast suggests a high probability of a warm or very warm autumn, so if September comes out around average, October and November will have to be pretty warm!