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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
12 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Meto 6-30 Outlook seem a bit wishy-washy hedgy-wedgy at the minute.  

This has been such an odd winter, it's almost like blind leading the blind this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Friday 22 Feb 2019:

By Wednesday there are signals for predominantly settled weather to be in place across the UK, particularly across the southeast. Some rain and stronger winds are likely in the north and west; temperatures here may be above average or mild for the time of year. Overnight frost and fog is likely during this settled spell, particularly in the south and east where it is likely to be colder than average; with a possibility of snow showers from the east. This theme may last into the following week. There is low confidence in timings for a change to more unsettled conditions across the UK, but by the end of the week a transition to more mobile weather patterns is likely, however there is little confidence on the timing of this transition.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

moved it to march now lol, anyone reckons the next update will have snow for May Day Bank Holiday

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
47 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Good to see that the Met have finally picked up on the MJO signal.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
32 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

moved it to march now lol, anyone reckons the next update will have snow for May Day Bank Holiday

Aye...those darned background signals just love to stay in the background...?

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye...those darned background signals just love to stay in the background...?

i think they will be in the background until smarch 2020

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, lassie23 said:

I've emailed them to ask them how April is looking, although I could hazard a guess

I'm hoping those 20+C uppers continue to build around the Mediterranean, and eventually give us a thundery breakdown!

Though confidence is low, at this stage...

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

image.thumb.png.97541dbe31370fe7e422deea64ccc0c3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
18 minutes ago, karyo said:

So now it is pushed to March and still with the milder windier spells likely. lol

Those blasted background signals

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

moved it to march now lol, anyone reckons the next update will have snow for May Day Bank Holiday

My bet is June 2nd with a snow event including us southerners! 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Saturday 23 Feb 2019:

On Thursday and Friday some wet and windy weather will affect the north and northwest of Britain. Further south and east high pressure will bring largely settled weather with overnight frost and fog. The fog could be slow to clear during the mornings. It will be mild, and perhaps very mild in the north and west. Little overall change is expected through the weekend and start of the following week, although temperatures will return to normal, notably across the south and east, where it could become cold. Thereafter there is increasing uncertainty, although it is most likely that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, whilst high pressure to the north or northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which could give further snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

So, it’s gone from cold in the south in yesterday’s update to mild, perhaps very mild in the north and west.  I suspect the metoffice themselves are frustrated with the models and winter this year.  I certainly wouldn’t want to be a forecaster there at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which could give further snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Another change today and as expected, nor for the better, although not a dreadful update.  That said, I don’t think the rollercoaster ride is over yet!  Will be get lucky?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They have done it again, lulled us into chase and took it away one day later, not surprising though, the backtrack on the ensembles over the last 2 runs, definately game over now.

 

How many times has it been game over this year? Clutching at straws but I’m hoping for another flip in the coming days and this time, the models stick to it.  Wishful thinking at its best!

PS You were correct about the change in models overnight but unfortunately, they did not go the right way.......

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

They should just split the country geographically and adjust percentage likelihood’s for diff weather types. 

Would be much more sensible and avoid the over analysis of their wording, day to day ......

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

This bit is for the optimists among us.

whilst high pressure to the north or northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast 

High pressure is not likely to be 'sat' to our north or northeast: it is likely to be 'sitting' to our north or northeast.  Grrr...even the professionals are getting sucked in by the modern state of grammar!  This aside, I have never known as much chopping and changing as frequently as this from the Met Office.

David

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