Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Weather-history]

Am I missing something here?

That was issued 13 hrs ago.

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Am I missing something here?

That was issued 13 hrs ago.

If you're looking at the timestamp ignore it

[feb1991blizzard]

I dont understand it - they keep saying low chance of East or NE winds, and at the start of the 16-30 dayer, they say it will be very cold, and its been the same for days - do the maths, either they just cannot be bothered to change the 16 dayer or they cannot be bothered to change the 30 dayer.

[sausage]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont understand it - they keep saying low chance of East or NE winds, and at the start of the 16-30 dayer, they say it will be very cold, and its been the same for days - do the maths, either they just cannot be bothered to change the 16 dayer or they cannot be bothered to change the 30 dayer.

lol i agree.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont understand it - they keep saying low chance of East or NE winds, and at the start of the 16-30 dayer, they say it will be very cold, and its been the same for days - do the maths, either they just cannot be bothered to change the 16 dayer or they cannot be bothered to change the 30 dayer.

Is your statement backed up by the fact the GFS that doesn't go out that far and changes radically in FI from run to run? I'm sure others can't be bothered to look in any detail.

The background signals are obviously encouraging and I would much rather place my faith in the Met Office than the GFS that's for sure!

It is always quite funny reading posts saying that the Met will 'change' their long ranger based on a few dodgy GFS operationals when the two will never correlate given the different timescales.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Liima

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Liima said:

Is your statement backed up by the fact the GFS that doesn't go out that far and changes radically in FI from run to run? I'm sure others can't be bothered to look in any detail.

The background signals are obviously encouraging and I would much rather place my faith in the Met Office than the GFS that's for sure!

It is always quite funny reading posts saying that the Met will 'change' their long ranger based on a few dodgy GFS operationals when the two will never correlate given the different timescales.

Read the post - i said they need to change ONE of them, that can be to a high chance of very cold OR the 16-30 to a low chance as they have both remained the same for days.

[DEYS(Kent)]

Why doesn't someone ask the question about MetO's outlook forecasts on the next live video they do? 

[feb1991blizzard]

They're having a right good think about backtracking by the looks of things.

[mountain shadow]

I would love to see what they are looking at to be so confident.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Monday 11 Feb 2019:

Rain, and possibly outbreaks of sleet and snow will clear from the southeast on Saturday, whilst the north and west will be brighter with wintry showers. By Sunday the brighter, showery conditions should have become more widespread. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. It will often be windy with a risk of coastal gales, and staying generally cold with overnight frost and risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[fujita5]

No backing down yet...

[Lloyds32]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

No backing down yet...

Give it a day or so..

[Scandinavian High.]

And why would they back of the cold..???

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If I recall they didn't back down in the run up to the beast, yet others organisations were skeptical, I actually recall the BBC 2 days prior to the snow event saying it would be a very cold but dry air mass!! There in house model is clearly at loggerheads with other models, which is quite surprising being as the designer of mogreps programmed the effect of global warming into it, but hey ho, they just ain't backing down!!! 

[MIKE LEVITT]

looking like very cold weather highly likely now.

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're having a right good think about backtracking by the looks of things.

D

How  do you come to that conclusion Feb?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

D

How  do you come to that conclusion Feb?

because they were taking so long.

[SteveB]

Wow, that is some forecast.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Give it a day or so..

I've been hearing that quote since end of December now Lloyds, I'm pretty sure many on hear Consider the met ameteur, check the facts, they are looked up on globally as the best in business!!! 

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

If I recall they didn't back down in the run up to the beast, yet others organisations were skeptical, I actually recall the BBC 2 days prior to the snow event saying it would be a very cold but dry air mass!! There in house model is clearly at loggerheads with other models, which is quite surprising being as the designer of mogreps programmed the effect of global warming into it, but hey ho, they just ain't backing down!!! 

Yep - it’s glosea btw, not mogreps which is showing the reverse flows through Feb (moreso after the first third of the month I believe) 

[ICE COLD]

16 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Give it a day or so..

TBF boyo is there any point you being on netweather ? Have you any interest in the weather at all ? You just constantly post . 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yep - it’s glosea btw, not mogreps which is showing the reverse flows through Feb (moreso after the first third of the month I believe) 

Good call Blue, when the met Office went astray with some previous mild winter predictions, which turned out cold, it was mentioned the input of taking global warming data into account was causing the problems with long range predictions, it was also noted that on the back of so many mild winters the long range models were struggling to sniff out a pattern change 

[cobbett]

Good update - plenty to look forward to for all I'd say

[Don]

4 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Good update - plenty to look forward to for all I'd say

Still no change, even with apparent less favourable signals.