Meto Uk Further Outlook

[bluearmy]

How long does the ‘start of the period’ last for ???

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How long does the ‘start of the period’ last for ???

How long is a piece of string?

[Puddy Galore]

Oh dear.  Having worked most of my life for public facing services, I really do understand how cautious (particularly in these modern days) one has to be to avoid any possible criticism or backlash I really do, however, there must be some sore bottoms at the met with all the fence sitting.  Every base is covered in that summary other than hot sunny weather - rain, wind, snow, frost, fog, and mild weather   I realise fhey can only forecast what they think they can see and if its not clear to them I see the issue but why they bother with these forecasts I'll never know.

[Neiller22]

4 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Oh dear.  Having worked most of my life for public facing services, I really do understand how cautious (particularly in these modern days) one has to be to avoid any possible criticism or backlash I really do, however, there must be some sore bottoms at the met with all the fence sitting.  Every base is covered in that summary other than hot sunny weather - rain, wind, snow, frost, fog, and mild weather   I realise fhey can only forecast what they think they can see and if its not clear to them I see the issue but why they bother with these forecasts I'll never know.

Could not agree more. They are utterly pointless. Basically it may do anything  is what they are saying

[cobbett]

Depends what this 'increased chance' actually means - from a 5% to a 10% chance or its odds on to deliver cold - I suspect the former

[MattStoke]

Hasn’t been pushed back to February. It doesn’t say February. It actually says ‘As the rest of the month progresses and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather to become established generally’.

Edited January 7, 2019 by MattStoke

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

How long is a piece of string?

I’m still chasing the cold . we live in hope .

[cobbett]

Can safely say its now end Jan - like a stopped clock they may be right by the end of March

[Matty88]

I concur with their  recent script forecast that the likelihood of a 'higher chance' of cold weather looks likely to increase towards the end of January (I'm sure I've heard that before!). The charts are indicating a change afoot at the end of each run, perhaps an indication even of a rather snowy breakdown, which wouldn't surprise me given the stubborn nature of the atmosphere - it needs a good old shunt! 

At the same time - nobody on here or anywhere should religiously rely on what the meto forecast actually occurring- even the meto have resorted to reminding readers in their most recent long range forecast that what they forecast is 'by no means certain'... those are important caveat style words that a few on here could do with taking a bit more seriously.... a cold spell at the end of January is absolutely NOT CERTAIN.

Its interesting - even some the best have got it wrong so far this season (including the meto) and are scratching their heads. There's certainly a lot to learn from the current/recent SSW event for all concerned  

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Matty88

[Paul_1978]

The update is much of a muchness really - hasn't really changed for a while now.... still the same theme.

[The PIT]

16 hours ago, Boro Snow said:

Pushed back till Feb now 

Yup but not unexpected to be honest. Soon will pushed to mid feb then eventually changed to cooler weather in spring. Considering it's hard to go past 5 days these forecasts should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2019:

A cloudy, windy day on Sunday, with some light drizzle over western hills and the best of any bright spells in the east. Some more prolonged spells of ran are likely in the far north/northwest where there's a risk of gales. By Monday it may turn colder and brighter with wintry showers across parts of the northeast. There is a trend towards more changeable conditions during next week, with spells of rain followed by colder and showery conditions, possibly turning to snow on northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall close to average, but at the end of this period there may be a transition to colder weather with more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2019:

A cloudy, windy day on Sunday, with some light drizzle over western hills and the best of any bright spells in the east. Some more prolonged spells of ran are likely in the far north/northwest where there's a risk of gales. By Monday it may turn colder and brighter with wintry showers across parts of the northeast. There is a trend towards more changeable conditions during next week, with spells of rain followed by colder and showery conditions, possibly turning to snow on northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall close to average, but at the end of this period there may be a transition to colder weather with more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

PRETTY GOOD THERE !!!!!

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 6 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather conditions becoming established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and also snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they are will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windy interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[johnholmes]

On 06/01/2019 at 15:39, TomSE12 said:

These Meto updates are pretty much in line with what local Weatherman Ian Currie , suggested to me as the way forward, when I had a half hour phone conversation with him last night. They perhaps suggest some ridging North, from a mid-Atlantic High. (Mr.Currie doesn't foresee strong blocking over Greenland) but he does expect lows may start to dive S.E. across the U.K. and as High Pressure edges out further into the Atlantic and one of these lows is likely to usher in an Arctic sourced Northerly. 

The continuing mention of milder interludes amongst a colder regime, suggests to me that perhaps the N. and E. of the U.K. may well be more likely to remain in the colder air, whilst the S. and W., could possibly remain prone to milder incursions, at times. 

Pure conjecture on mine and Ian Currie's part. I do though greatly respect Mr.Currie's views, as he has been an official Met Office observer for many years and likewise has kept weather records, going back many years too.

Regards,

Tom. 

I would just add a touch of caution Tom, having been both a professional observer and forecaster there is a large difference in the amount of knowledge imparted at each level believe me. That is not to say Ian is not good at his job in presenting the advice he gets from Exeter.

[swfc]

Sounds good also!!!

[cheshire snow]

There is that date again around the 21st nice update

C.S

[Polar Maritime]

In line with the latest models I would think, The cold is coming.

[weirpig]

Yep  a change in wording now  at the end of the period  cold gathering pace 

[cobbett]

and finally the threat of cold comes into the more reliable time frame

[Weathizard]

That’s certainly a change of tact from yesterday, still quite vague but about as good as it gets this far out, think yesterdays EC46 carried such a strong signal they have taken notice.

Wouldnt worry about the last sentence, goes without saying that on these shores milder/SW driven weather is always possible, they always seem to include something along those lines.

 

 

[MattStoke]

Funny that the Met Office outlooks have actually brought the colder risk forward when everyone is moaning that it’s been pushed back.

The first mentions of colder conditions and enhanced snow risk is now into the 2 weeks ahead forecast.

[Don]

Still a long way to go, but the cold chances seem to be making some progress.

[matt111]

The fact the mention of colds finally made it into this thread speaks volumes. 

[damianslaw]

I said it will be around 8-9th we begin to see signs of the colder period coming into the semi-reliable, and its pleasing to note the Met Office have finally picked this up in their shorter-term forecast.