Meto Uk Further Outlook

[nick sussex]

Their forecast covers every outcome . Not sure why people bother with these , they’re just as liable to change as the models . The much vaunted EC longer range modelling continues to also draw much attention and hardly ever materializes .

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Their forecast covers every outcome . Not sure why people bother with these , they’re just as liable to change as the models . The much vaunted EC longer range modelling continues to also draw much attention and hardly ever materializes .

 

Yes, but they give us as indication to what their thoughts are and we can use this to determine whether we should believe any BOOM charts showing in the model output in FI. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by mountain shadow

[Bring Back The Beast]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Massive, massive downgrade. There goes January too.

Relax Guys.. There really isn't much change. Towards the end of January could be around Jan 20th - 22nd in my book!

They are still saying increased likelihood of cold weather with snow. We all know this is far from certain. 

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Their forecast covers every outcome . Not sure why people bother with these , they’re just as liable to change as the models . The much vaunted EC longer range modelling continues to also draw much attention and hardly ever materializes .

 

Agreed! Here’s their update from 3 weeks ago, absolute rubbish. I’m stupid because I come back and look at these updates every day but let’s all be honest, they literally cover every single basis they must have MASSIVE splinters in their bums, don’t blame them though it’s basiclaly impossible predicting things this far out.

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Their forecast covers every outcome . Not sure why people bother with these , they’re just as liable to change as the models . The much vaunted EC longer range modelling continues to also draw much attention and hardly ever materializes .

 

I've been saying the same thing for the last month or so...they HAVE NOT been very accurate in this period on their updates, remember them saying only a week or so back this period would be settled before colder conditions then they quickly reworded it with unsettled windy conditions into the New Year...not seeing any of that currently or the foreseeable. Far too much notice taken of these in my opinion certainly considering their track record of late!

Edited January 2, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[phil nw.]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

My take on this is that their in house modelling is showing no strong cold indicators and they are basing their prediction on something happening beyond what MOGREPS is showing related to MJO or SSW.  If latest GLOSEA run was showing cold then they wouldn’t be less bullish in today’s issue. Signals must be more mixed now when you would hope them to be getting clearer ......

They don't seem to be writing off any change to cold but i do sense a delay and a little more uncertainty.

We do now have the ssw and reversal at the top but maybe it's unclear in their models how far the downwelling will progress and if the split lower down is insufficient to clear lobes of the trop vortex far enough apart in the Atlantic sector for the pattern to establish high latitude blocking where we need it ie.Greenland/Iceland area.

The other thing is we do have the MJO forecast to the favourable phase 7 in a few days but do they see it at sufficient strength and of course there is the lag effect of that-a week/10days? so again this is very much outside our current NWP as it currently stands.

Just musing.

Edited January 2, 2019 by phil nw.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Bring Back The Beast said:

Relax Guys.. There really isn't much change. Towards the end of January could be around Jan 20th - 22nd in my book!

They are still saying increased likelihood of cold weather with snow. We all know this is far from certain. 

Aye, but it's the constant manyana, manyana.

In November, December looked good, then it was the start of January, then mid January, now we;re into mid to late January.............

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but they give us as indication to what there thoughts 

Their thoughts are led by longer range products which are often wrong . I don’t believe in longer range forecasting because of the inherent chaos in the atmosphere.

 

[SLEETY]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

If thats right many places wont have even seen a flake of snow before late Jan at the earliest.

we had some snow  end of nov in that first easterly ,gone by about 7am ,thought then that’s probably it for this winter,now after that update

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Agreed! Here’s their update from 3 weeks ago, absolute rubbish. I’m stupid because I come back and look at these updates every day but let’s all be honest, they literally cover every single basis they must have MASSIVE splinters in their bums, don’t blame them though it’s basiclaly impossible predicting things this far out.

As I just stated, it's the manyana, mayana. Clearly, the models have constantly been offering cold and snow in the T+20 day range but they are failing to materialise, why? 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Agreed! Here’s their update from 3 weeks ago, absolute rubbish. I’m stupid because I come back and look at these updates every day but let’s all be honest, they literally cover every single basis they must have MASSIVE splinters in their bums, don’t blame them though it’s basiclaly impossible predicting things this far out.

Exactly we’re still waiting for the wet and windy weather which hasn’t shown up . The models can’t even agree on the upstream pattern at day 6 and the phasing or not of shortwave energy and the troughing near Greenland and yet we’re expected to write off the rest of January .

 

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As I just stated, it's the manyana, mayana. Clearly, the models have constantly been offering cold and snow in the T+20 day range but they are failing to materialise, why? 

Happens every winter mate, realistically it’s just a lot more frustrating this winter because it really doesn’t even feel like winter has begun, I think we’ve had one proper frost here all winter.

All I’m saying is it’s the 3rd of January, their predictions aren’t gospel and realistically they cover every basis aside from raining cats and dogs, I do come back and read them everyday but to be honest I don’t know why they are barely ever right not one bit of that update I posted was correct - it’s been almost polar opposite 

Edited January 2, 2019 by Weathizard

[cheshire snow]

Just watch this evenings Models go on and produce a Cobra run sods law in all its glory

C.S

[Don]

A very disappointing update today with a clear delay in any chance of cold.  Starting to think it won't happen now, especially considering the latest musings in the strat thread. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Just watch this evenings Models go on and produce a Cobra run sods law in all its glory

C.S

haha, i agree with Nick Sussex, the updates are generally a reflection of the NWP..

Equally, the trend over recent days has been poor imho, this SSW does not, at this juncture at anyrate, look like its going to anything good for us at all,it might even ramp up the jet as one of the lobes gets shunted towards Canada..

[karlos1983]

If we all believe exactly what the Met Office say, it does beg the question..... What the hell are all doing on here, watching model run after model run? we can just read the MetO updates once a day and be done with it............ What fun!

Edited January 2, 2019 by karlos1983

[Optimus Prime]

28 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Agreed! Here’s their update from 3 weeks ago, absolute rubbish. I’m stupid because I come back and look at these updates every day but let’s all be honest, they literally cover every single basis they must have MASSIVE splinters in their bums, don’t blame them though it’s basiclaly impossible predicting things this far out.

I think Christmas has gone to people's heads in here. The above outlook describes well what we will have as weather for the next week or so.

I'd be chuffed if that was my forecast. Nothing wrong with bashing a weather forecast or a public organisation  for that matter but when the critisicm is clearly unjustified, and backed up with evidence that is contrary to the argument being proposed, you should be called out for it.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Optimus Prime

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Rather disappointing to see the cold being delayed. Wasting the best part of January and with the delay even then the cold isnt guaranteed!

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

So feb now

Expecting the GEFs to start to have an upward trend now as as they are definitely not mild at the mo for mid Jan onwards 

Feb? It says “towards the end of Jan”, not February. 

[North East Blizzard]

Not sure as I see it as much of a downgrade at all, granted living up north at elevation helps.

Talk of snow even at low levels up here and then the chance of Much colder weather in the following weeks :)

The use of the wording MUCH COLDER, is interesting to say the least.

 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Don said:

A very disappointing update today with a clear delay in any chance of cold.  Starting to think it won't happen now, especially considering the latest musings in the strat thread. 

Agreed! There has been delay after delay in the potential cold spell and their wording suggests that it is far from certain that it will even happen. 

At this rate we will be struggling with the strengthening sun again by the time any wintry weather arrives.

[karlos1983]

22 minutes ago, karyo said:

Agreed! There has been delay after delay in the potential cold spell and their wording suggests that it is far from certain that it will even happen. 

At this rate we will be struggling with the strengthening sun again by the time any wintry weather arrives.

Oh come on K....! There will be no struggle with the sun! My days of laying snow last March (1/03) (2/03) (3/03) (17/03) (18/03) (19/03) (20/03) lowest Max -1.4C (1/03)! I'm so far south that if you walk any further you'll get wet! also that was at 30ft ASL, as only just moved!

We are talking the end of Jan and into Feb! Sun won't cause an issue!

Edited January 2, 2019 by karlos1983

[Chesil View]

How annoying that as soon as we get a real boom winter run from the GFS para that the Meto decide to start playing fast and loose with the change to cold mid month.

Of course it could always change back to a more solid outlook again. I'mwondering if some of the wording and uncertainty has been put in because the media have started talking beasts from the east again and they don,t want to be seen as having fuelled that. Just a thought.

 

[Earthshine]

Sun will only cause snow melt if there's clear skies.  Correct me if I'm wrong but it's usually cloudy when it snows? 

Anyway mild weather is great if it's dry.  Certainly more pleasant to be outdoors in than intense cold.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Evening Star

[DanDorsetUK]

Well after just getting home and reading that update I'm giving up model watching. What is the point of looking at models with everything going on. Clearly Glosea can see things us mortals can't. Not good at all.