Meto Uk Further Outlook

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 29 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Very similar still..perhaps ever so  slightly delayed..

[Summer Sun]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Very similar still..perhaps ever so  slightly delayed..

Delayed to week 3 of Jan now which takes us to the final 5 weeks of metalogical winter

[Methuselah]

Isn't January 15th the first day of the third week, anyway???

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Delayed to week 3 of Jan now which takes us to the final 5 weeks of metalogical winter

Could argue week 3 begins on the 15th ?

FWIW i for one certainly do not want to see anymore delays now..

Edited December 31, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could argue week 3 begins on the 15th ?

You're right I looked at the calendar wrong (didn't fully skip to Jan)

So today's delay leave 6 weeks or so of winter with on paper the coldest month still to go

Edited December 31, 2018 by Summer Sun

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Could argue week 3 begins on the 15th ?

If they were still expecting the change to colder weather to happen on the 15th then why didn't they say mid month? They dropped the mid month wording for a reason.

[Leo97t]

I wouldn't over analyse at the minute. Not worth worrying about until further changes

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

If they were still expecting the change to colder weather to happen on the 15th then why didn't they say mid month? They dropped the mid month wording for a reason.

K i dont mind if it the colder weather begins on the 15th-22nd , but i  freely admit i dont want to see anymore delays now.

[Borei]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Isn't January 15th the first day of the third week, anyway???

Yes. The wording suggests the 'change' is during the third week (which is 15th- 21st). 

Effectively therefore the colder weather is now due during the last third of January. 

The wording is being manipulated over time to reflect to delay in the cold weather. Or to put it another way, the forecasts reflected a month ago have not verified. 

 

[bluearmy]

Likely to become less settled now becomes ‘there may be a change’ ............

[Don]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Just wonder how long it will be until the words 'considerable uncertainty ' enter their outlook as the backtrack begins, which surely it must now.

Not looked at the models today, but this tells me the outlook is poor!

[MattStoke]

3rd week is mid January. Not sure how that’s a delay on the past few updates.

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Not looked at the models today, but this tells me the outlook is poor!

Operational are poor, especially gfs...ens significantly better.

[Don]

Just now, KTtom said:

Operational are poor, especially gfs...ens significantly better.

Could it be that the SSW is still causing issues for the models?

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Could it be that the SSW is still causing issues for the models?

Yep I have a feeling they might lock onto something in the next week or so, whether that be mild or cold...

[fujita5]

Bear in mind that this says "By the third week".  There are clearly signals in their modelling which indicate there will be a higher chance of the weather becoming colder around that time, perhaps by the beginning of week3 or maybe the end of week 3.  Timings of major pattern changes are bound to oscillate by a day or two (or more) at this range.  Even when weather events get into the very reliable timeframe they can be delayed or bought forward by 12-24 hours.

It's when the outlook says "mild until March" that we need to worry.

 

[Bristawl Si]

"Increased likelihood" and "enhanced risk" seems quite positive to me - my interpretation is that this is a slight upgrade on the last few days meto forecasts.

[Neiller22]

that update is a delay. Not looking good if u ask me,  

[cobbett]

Seeing as the forecast starts from the 15th they wouldn’t put ‘by the 3rd week’ unless they meant the following week 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Seeing as the forecast starts from the 15th they wouldn’t put ‘by the 3rd week’ unless they meant the following week 

Which would, from the very fact that 15+7=22, be the fourth week!

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

14 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Seeing as the forecast starts from the 15th they wouldn’t put ‘by the 3rd week’ unless they meant the following week 

Making that incorrect as the 3rd week of January is the week commencing the 14th as this week commencing the 31st of December is classed as the first week of January according to ISO 8601 date and time standards.

Edited December 31, 2018 by bathweatherwatcher

[matt111]

I know this is more about seasonal forecasting and not exclusively from the Met Office but I posted this last night in the hunt for cold thread which might have some relevance here. 

 

[SLEETY]

this place is a joke sometimes,the way people hang off every single word of these updates,unless the meto change to mild wet and unsettled conditions look likely to dominate till at least the end of the month,then I would take a chill pill or stop reading these flipping updates 

[cobbett]

14 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

Making that incorrect as the 3rd week of January is the week commencing the 14th as this week commencing the 31st of December is classed as the first week of January according to ISO 8601 date and time standards.

I agree but just going by the wording it implies it’s the following week after  the 15th. Anyway all a bit ridiculous discussing word by word dissection of a met update - it’ll change again shortly !

[Matty88]

Some are writing as though they put whatever the meto say in their calendar ''cold due on 15th'' etc. People on here shouldn't even look at their forecast - we are all capable of looking at the charts which will keep you much better updated than their tradional script forecast, which is out of date 6 hours later! These are aimed at the less educated general public 

So my advise : if you follow the charts then ignore these script casts ! 

 

Ps for what it's worth I feel the whole SSW thing has been obsessively over done and we will have a relatively mild and dry winter, I'm not taking anything for granted!