Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Frost HoIIow]

Not a great update from Exeter, it might be wrong but if not there's Jack we can do about it. I won't lie awake worrying about rain and mild temps. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

21 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Taken in conjunction with the tweet from Fawkes this highlights the folly of paying any attention to the hysteria and misleading nonsense in the model thread. Good reason for closing down that particular thread until 1st Dec. Same every year....hysteria regarding  high latitude blocking in October which has no relevance when we hit the first day of winter. Never learn and all the while posters,either keeping the traffic moving or  more worryingly allowed to keep the gullible forever addicted to synoptics which will rarely deliver on expectations

Completely agree, and I have been vocal year after year in that thread playing down the excitement stirred by one or two posters. However, I do feel we'll have a noteworthy cold spell this year, we may just have to wait for it! 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

I think the excitement is based mostly on 'the solar minimum', but practically no other factors seem to be helpful so Fawkes' musings aren't exactly irrational.  If it's another 2013-2014 (as Fawkes seemed to possibly indicate with flooding in SW etc) then that could be fascinating in its own right  (particularly for the Cairngorms).

Another winter like 2013/14 would be a disaster and not only for cold lovers.  Lots of people suffered flooding that winter and could not return to their homes for months!

Edited November 25, 2018 by Don

[doghouse]

Don’t profess to know other than I know very little, however,  I have a sound knowledge of Grand Old Doke of York charts which get churned out every year which have no bearing on the weather we experience on the ground,except for the info from the met office, which at least has some credence

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Completely agree, and I have been vocal year after year in that thread playing down the excitement stirred by one or two posters. However, I do feel we'll have a noteworthy cold spell this year, we may just have to wait for it! 

Netweather's very own James Madden and Nathan Rao? This'll be my sixteenth winter spent model-watching, Crewe and, so far, they've been right three times!

PS: Anyone know what happened to the superscripts and subscripts?

[Mike Poole]

Well this update has certainly unleashed a s**tstorm, but why?  The start of this period is a good 8 days beyond what anyone in the MOD thread would regard as even semi-reliable.  I actually think the 12z runs so far are an upgrade.

[Don]

23 minutes ago, togwotee pass said:

It's surely unlikely, and it seems to me careless of Fawkes to mention flooding (unless he had strong reason to).  It's also worth remembering how mad the snowfall was in some of the scottish mountains that year:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26339994

Also if I remember correctly there was record cold in parts of the usa  (sound familiar?).

I don't think Chris Fawkes actually mentioned 2013/14 but his thoughts regarding flooding risks in the south west hint at a similar pattern.  USA did indeed experience brutal cold that winter which contributed to the horrendous conditions in the UK by 'blowing up' the jet stream.

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well this update has certainly unleashed a s**tstorm, but why?  The start of this period is a good 8 days beyond what anyone in the MOD thread would regard as even semi-reliable.  I actually think the 12z runs so far are an upgrade.

I think because they are seeing unsettled and milder conditions establishing towards the end of December when you would hope blocking conditions would establish if we're to have a cold winter.  However, all subject to change of course and what will be will be.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Don

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

I think because they are seeing unsettled and milder conditions establishing towards the end of December when you would hope blocking conditions would establish if we're to have a cold winter.  However, all subject to change of course and what will be will be.

The worry may be compounded tomorrow!  That's when I expect the MO will release their Nov Contingency Planners 3 month forecast, the Winter forecast in all but name, slight worry that this rewording is that GloSea5 has seen a new signal at 11th hour,  that CP forecast will be a very interesting read, albeit with a bit of trepidation now...

Edited November 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Don]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

The worry may be compounded tomorrow!  That's when I expect the MO will release their Nov Contingency Planners 3 month forecast, the Winter forecast in all but name, that will be a very interesting read, albeit with a bit of trepidation now...

Particularly as the GLOSEA5 flipped in November to a blocked outlook!

[blizzard81]

The latest update says the settled, blocking period will not last and be replaced by unsettled weather again as we approach xmas with temps trending up - oh joy! This could be the 8th consecutive meh! December on the trot. Pretty grim statistic really. 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The latest update says the settled, blocking period will not last and be replaced by unsettled weather again as we approach xmas with temps trending up - oh joy! This could be the 8th consecutive meh! December on the trot. Pretty grim statistic really. 

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

Should the unsettled weather prior to this period continue, it is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is generally expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring an increased likelihood of fog. Temperatures may start off around average at first, but are likely to trend to colder than average. This in turn will bring an increased risk of some overnight frosts under any clearer skies. However, as we head towards the end of this period, it is likely to become more unsettled once again with temperatures returning to around or a little above average for the time of year.

------

Yes, doesn't look great at all. Maybe a period of high pressure close by with some faux cold before the Atlantic returns. Doesn't appear that the Met Office as giving any credence to the supposedly favourable MJO phase or GLAAM.

Maybe El Nino and wQBO have overridden the decent signals from a couple of weeks ago when many Winter forecasts were delivered.

As ever, just need to see what happens. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

Should the unsettled weather prior to this period continue, it is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is generally expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring an increased likelihood of fog. Temperatures may start off around average at first, but are likely to trend to colder than average. This in turn will bring an increased risk of some overnight frosts under any clearer skies. However, as we head towards the end of this period, it is likely to become more unsettled once again with temperatures returning to around or a little above average for the time of year.

------

Yes, doesn't look great at all. Maybe a period of high pressure close by with some faux cold before the Atlantic returns. Doesn't appear that the Met Office as giving any credence to the supposedly favourable MJO phase or GLAAM.

Maybe El Nino and wQBO have overridden the decent signals from a couple of weeks ago when many Winter forecasts were delivered.

As ever, just need to see what happens. 

Indeed. I think this may have been what Chris Fawkes was referring to this weekend with his tweets. 

[sebastiaan1973]

17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

UK Outlook for Monday 10 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

Should the unsettled weather prior to this period continue, it is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is generally expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring an increased likelihood of fog. Temperatures may start off around average at first, but are likely to trend to colder than average. This in turn will bring an increased risk of some overnight frosts under any clearer skies. However, as we head towards the end of this period, it is likely to become more unsettled once again with temperatures returning to around or a little above average for the time of year.

------

Yes, doesn't look great at all. Maybe a period of high pressure close by with some faux cold before the Atlantic returns. Doesn't appear that the Met Office as giving any credence to the supposedly favourable MJO phase or GLAAM.

Maybe El Nino and wQBO have overridden the decent signals from a couple of weeks ago when many Winter forecasts were delivered.

As ever, just need to see what happens. 

Seems to me they use EC46. Nothing else. At least for the moment.

[karyo]

20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, doesn't look great at all. Maybe a period of high pressure close by with some faux cold before the Atlantic returns. Doesn't appear that the Met Office as giving any credence to the supposedly favourable MJO phase or GLAAM.

Maybe El Nino and wQBO have overridden the decent signals from a couple of weeks ago when many Winter forecasts were delivered.

 

Well, the MJO is fairly weak (close to the circle of death) so unlikely to make an impact unless it amplifies. The El Nino is also weak. I think the  increasingly wQBO may be doing the damage.

[mpkio2]

43 minutes ago, karyo said:

Well, the MJO is fairly weak (close to the circle of death) so unlikely to make an impact unless it amplifies. The El Nino is also weak. I think the  increasingly wQBO may be doing the damage.

I have to agree with this. Seeing how the GWO is in an unfavourable phase, AMM is currently low (But on the rise soon), its not surprising that we will see a unsettled period. A weak EL Nino should not interfere, though a wQBO, possibly, can.

As many have saud, we'll just have to wait and see.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 25 Dec 2018:

At the start of this period settled conditions should have developed across the UK, bringing some drier weather and lighter winds but also an increased likelihood of fog and overnight frost. However the second half of December will probably see a gradual return to breezier and much more unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain and strong winds, particularly in the north and northwest where there may be some hill snow. Temperatures should initially be below average, before trending back to normal or milder than average by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Monday 10 Dec 2018:

Unsettled weather prevails throughout the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain albeit with some bright or sunny spells in between. It will often be windy, with a risk of gales, with temperatures close to or a little above average. The changeable and at times unsettled weather is likely throughout the following week, with spells of occasionally heavy rain accompanied by brisk winds, interspersed by brighter more showery conditions. Towards the end of this period there may be a transition towards more settled conditions in the south, with lighter winds and more in the way of drier weather developing. Temperatures should initially be milder than average, but are likely to trend downwards by the end of the period with a greater chance of overnight fog and frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Any idea what time the Met Office contingency planners 3 month outlook will be released?

[SLEETY]

meto long range forecasting isn’t certain like any other long range forecast.Amazing how so many people take their long range forecasts as a given,when they get it wrong more than they get it correct.It changes all the time  too,so good luck if you believe it word for word.

[Froze were the Days]

Doesn't take a lot for our weather to go back to it's unsettled, wet and mild winter default state whatever long range forecast models are saying...whether it's west QBO or El Nino, a revitalised vortex near Greenland or just a cow trumping too much in a field.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

meto long range forecasting isn’t certain like any other long range forecast.Amazing how so many people take their long range forecasts as a given,when they get it wrong more than they get it correct.It changes all the time  too,so good luck if you believe it word for word.

Id have to agree.I guess they see a trend but it changes quite a lot so any specific weather or synoptics cant be derived fro these musings. They obv have great access to computers ete and are not to be dismissed imo.I think anyone giving a long range or a months winter forecast is on a dodgy wicket as such imo.All that said if they put the work in I wish them all the best with such forecasts

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Doesn't take a lot for our weather to go back to it's unsettled, wet and mild winter default state whatever long range forecast models are saying...whether it's west QBO or El Nino, a revitalised vortex near Greenland or just a cow trumping too much in a field.

hardly any severe cold weather happens in DEC ,bar the odd occasion,so don’t worry..I just hope the atmospheric pattern is favourable as we head into Jan for a change.Lets hope the long range models pick upon something over the next few weeks.

[northwestsnow]

These updates are getting worse!!

Yesterday unsettled later in the period.. today saying 2nd half of December!!

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hardly any severe cold weather happens in DEC ,bar the odd occasion,so don’t worry..I just hope the atmospheric pattern is favourable as we head into Jan for a change.Lets hope the long range models pick upon something over the next few weeks.

I hear similar quotes like this most winters...all this does is narrow the window of opportunity of getting decent cold to our shores further to near a month and half to 2 month period, as for a major SSW I'd be surprised to see 2 winters in a row.