Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 May 2018 to Wednesday 13 Jun 2018:

The end of May, could well remain mostly dry and warm in the south and south east, with the potential for some very warm spells, which may also lead to brief periods of thundery rain. Further north and west, it will perhaps be more changeable, and this could spread more widely across the country as we head into June, bringing more frequent spells of cloud and rain. It is still likely that southern areas could see some settled spells, and overall temperatures are probably going to be near to just above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

Crikey! That's a heck of a lot of weather to cram into the last two days of May!

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 May 2018 to Thursday 14 Jun 2018:

As we move into the beginning of June confidence is low, but there are signs that it may start to become less settled. This will bring more widespread periods of rain or showers, as well as spells of stronger winds. Some southern and southeastern areas could see drier and more settled weather at times. On the whole temperatures are likely to be close to or just above average, with the warmest weather likely during any settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 21 May 2018 to Wednesday 30 May 2018:

Northern and western parts are likely to be cloudy with outbreaks of rain on Monday, whilst the south and east should remain mostly dry and warm, with the odd thundery shower. The generally dry weather may extend to most areas through Tuesday, with the odd risk of a thundery shower in the south and southeast. Thereafter, the remainder of May could stay mostly dry and warm in the south and southeast, with a small chance of thundery rain. The west and northwest will probably be changeable at times with stronger winds and outbreaks of rain. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above average for most, especially so in the south and east where it may be very warm at times. Despite warm days, the nights will be cooler than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Jun 2018 to Friday 15 Jun 2018:

As we head into June confidence becomes low. It is possible that we will see the weather becoming less settled, with a greater chance of showers or longer spells of rain more widely across the UK. Despite this, there are still likely to be some settled spells at times, particularly in southern and southeastern areas. On the whole temperatures will be close to or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 May 2018 to Thursday 31 May 2018:

Cloud and persistent rain across northern and western areas should steadily clear through Tuesday bringing a drier afternoon. However, thundery showers could break out in the south and east. We then see the potential for further spells of cloudy and wet weather pushing into the north and west at times through the remainder of May, with the south and east generally drier, but with the risk of heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures are also likely to differ across the country, with the north and west remaining closer to normal or perhaps even cool at times. In contrast, the south and east will remain above average, with the potential for some very warm spells, especially towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[northwestsnow]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 May 2018 to Thursday 31 May 2018:

Cloud and persistent rain across northern and western areas should steadily clear through Tuesday bringing a drier afternoon. However, thundery showers could break out in the south and east. We then see the potential for further spells of cloudy and wet weather pushing into the north and west at times through the remainder of May, with the south and east generally drier, but with the risk of heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures are also likely to differ across the country, with the north and west remaining closer to normal or perhaps even cool at times. In contrast, the south and east will remain above average, with the potential for some very warm spells, especially towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

Very poor update considering what looks lovely NWP 00z runs.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Very poor update considering what looks lovely NWP 00z runs.

Was just about to post the same. Looks at odds to the output at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Was just about to post the same. Looks at odds to the output at the moment.

Indeed, looks mainly dry and warm next week looking at GFS/ECM, UKMO does look to be a bit of a fly in the ointment, looks like exeter going with ukmo then.

Edited May 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed, looks mainly dry and warm next week looking at GFS/ECM, UKMO does look to be a bit of a fly in the ointment, looks like exeter going with ukmo then.

My general interpretation of the model output during this more settled spell is that the models having been trying to break it down and the only to backtrack nearer the time.

The key drivers all seem a bit benign at the moment and I see no reason as to how the jet will suddenly start moving through the UK. I think it will continue to deflect to the NE,

Not wall to wall sunshine as fronts will occasionally attack the North West and pressure could be low enough for showers to develop.

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 May 2018 to Thursday 31 May 2018:

Cloud and persistent rain across northern and western areas should steadily clear through Tuesday bringing a drier afternoon. However, thundery showers could break out in the south and east. We then see the potential for further spells of cloudy and wet weather pushing into the north and west at times through the remainder of May, with the south and east generally drier, but with the risk of heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures are also likely to differ across the country, with the north and west remaining closer to normal or perhaps even cool at times. In contrast, the south and east will remain above average, with the potential for some very warm spells, especially towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

looking at the forecast model we have over here ,I am not sure how this forecast is going to evolve. Our indications show the reverse with warmer than average temps in the North and West and least settled further SE ( Britain ) during this period. Anyway this evenings UKMO model might through some light on this forecast.

 C

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Jun 2018 to Saturday 16 Jun 2018:

As we head into the first week of June, we will probably see cloudy, wet and cool weather in the northwest, but drier, brighter and warmer conditions in the southeast. Into the middle of June, the forecast looks very uncertain. It is possible that the weather across the UK will be fairly unsettled, with a greater chance of showers or longer spells of rain at times. Despite this, there are still likely to be some spells of drier weather at times, particularly in southern and southeastern areas. On the whole temperatures will be close to or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 May 2018 to Friday 1 Jun 2018:

Through the rest of May, in the north and west of the UK there is potential for spells of cloudy and wet weather. However in the south and east, conditions look to generally drier and brighter, but with the risk of some heavy and thundery showers. Temperatures are also likely to differ across the country, with the north and west of the UK remaining closer to average for the time of year, or perhaps even cooler than this at times. In contrast, the south and east will remain above average for the time of year, with the potential for some very warm spells, especially towards the end of the month and into the beginning of June.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 May 2018 to Saturday 2 Jun 2018:

Thursday and Friday will be mainly dry with sunny spells after any early mist has cleared. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and central areas at times with a low risk of more generally wet conditions across the northwest. It will be warm or very warm in the west, but cooler near eastern coasts. There will be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells for the Bank Holiday weekend with further thundery showers possible across central and southern parts. Remaining warmest in the west and cooler along eastern coasts. The end of May and beginning of June will most likely remain overall drier and warmer than average, with an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions developing towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jun 2018 to Sunday 17 Jun 2018:

As we head into June there is very low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jun 2018 to Sunday 17 Jun 2018:

As we head into June there is very low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 25 May 2018 to Sunday 3 Jun 2018:

Friday will be mainly dry with sunny spells after any early mist has cleared. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and central areas at times with mist and low cloud possibly affecting the east coast at times. It will be warm or very warm in the west, but cooler near eastern coasts. There will be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells for the Bank Holiday weekend with further thundery showers possible across central and southern parts. Remaining warmest in the west and cooler along eastern coasts with a brisk northeasterly wind. The end of May and beginning of June will most likely remain overall drier and warmer than average, with an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions developing towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Jun 2018 to Tuesday 19 Jun 2018:

For the beginning of June there is very low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month, with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 May 2018 to Monday 4 Jun 2018:

The Bank Holiday weekend will be mostly fine and sunny, after any early mist and fog has cleared. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and central areas at times however, with mist and low cloud possibly affecting the east coast. It will be warm or very warm in the south and west, but often much cooler near eastern coasts. There will also be a brisk easterly wind across southern areas. Similar conditions will prevail into next week, but some longer spells of heavy, thundery rain may move northwards into central parts. Into the beginning of June confidence is low, but it will most likely remain overall drier and warmer than average. However there will be an increasing chance of more unsettled, cooler conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[davehsug]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Jun 2018 to Tuesday 19 Jun 2018:

For the beginning of June there is very low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month, with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

 

Pleasing that at least the reference to above normal temperatures, would mean that the METO don't see the high moving to mid-Atlantic or Greenland as likely.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Jun 2018 to Wednesday 20 Jun 2018:

For the beginning of June there is low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month, with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 May 2018 to Tuesday 5 Jun 2018:

The Bank Holiday weekend will be mostly fine and sunny, after any early mist and fog has cleared. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and central areas at times however, with mist and low cloud possibly affecting the east coast. It will very warm or hot in the south and west, but often much cooler near eastern coasts. There will also be a brisk easterly wind across southern areas. Similar conditions will prevail into next week, but some longer spells of heavy, thundery rain may move northwards into central parts. Into the beginning of June confidence is low, but it will most likely remain overall drier and warmer than average. However there will be an increasing chance of more unsettled, cooler conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Jun 2018 to Thursday 21 Jun 2018:

Confidence remains low through June, however there are signs that it may become more widely changeable across the UK. This will bring more frequent spells of rain or showers, however there are likely to be drier and more settled periods for most areas too. Temperatures are likely to be near or slight above average, with the potential for some warmer spells, especially at first.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 28 May 2018 to Wednesday 6 Jun 2018:

Bank Holiday Monday will be fine and very warm for many, although cooler along some North Sea coasts with mist and fog. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and some central areas, but many will remain dry. Very warm and perhaps hot weather will continue for most through the end of May with plenty of sunshine, but with the risk of thunderstorms across the south. With light easterly winds, North Sea coasts will often be cooler and cloudier. Into early June, confidence becomes low but most should remain dry and warm, although perhaps slightly cooler than at the end of May. However, there will be an increasing chance of somewhat more changeable weather with the risk of showery rain becoming more widespread.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 May 2018 to Thursday 7 Jun 2018:

Through the early part of next week, there will be a good deal of dry, fine and sunny weather across the UK. Mist and low cloud may continue to affect eastern coastal districts. There is also a risk of scattered thunderstorms across the south and southwest, especially through Wednesday. It will stay very warm for most, locally hot in the south, although temperatures may fall closer to average by Wednesday. For the rest of the period, there will be more fine and dry weather to come, with the best of the sunshine in the north. There is a continued threat of thundery showers across central and southern areas, and the far west could see rain at times. After a very warm start, temperatures are likely to fall closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Jun 2018 to Friday 22 Jun 2018:

Confidence remains low through June, however there are signs that it may become more widely changeable across the UK. This will bring more frequent spells of rain or showers. However there are likely to be drier and more settled periods for most areas too, especially at the start of the period. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average on the whole, with the potential for some warmer spells, especially at first.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?date=2018-04-26