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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Jan 2018 to Friday 19 Jan 2018:

The first half of this period should see Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west and erode the cold 'blocked' conditions which will have become established across the UK during previous days. In this regime there is likely to be plenty of dry weather with some sunshine, especially in the east. Frontal systems making limited progress into the west of the UK during the period may bring outbreaks of rain, which may also bring the threat of some snow in places, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. When there are clearer skies by night, severe frosts and freezing fog is likely. Temperatures will remain below the average, with perhaps some recovery to near normal temperatures in the west at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Jan 2018 to Saturday 3 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January unsettled weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems influencing our weather. As changeable conditions become re-established we will see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of one or more significant snow events, especially at the start of this period. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be cold at first, but return to near normal, again with the timing of this transition still open to a lot of uncertainty.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Jan 2018 to Saturday 3 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January unsettled weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems influencing our weather. As changeable conditions become re-established we will see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of one or more significant snow events, especially at the start of this period. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be cold at first, but return to near normal, again with the timing of this transition still open to a lot of uncertainty.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Two things strike me about this forecast.

1. when read in conjunction with the 10 day forecast tat precedes this one it is appears,to me eyes anyway, a classic blocking high to the North East with a slow breakdown from the west.

2. how different it is to the one at the top of the page which talks of "average" temps.

 

I'm assuming that the text forecasts reflect Exeter's considered thoughts as opposed to just reflecting models in which case things could become very interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Jan 2018 to Friday 19 Jan 2018:

The first half of this period should see Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west and erode the cold 'blocked' conditions which will have become established across the UK during previous days. In this regime there is likely to be plenty of dry weather with some sunshine, especially in the east. Frontal systems making limited progress into the west of the UK during the period may bring outbreaks of rain, which may also bring the threat of some snow in places, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. When there are clearer skies by night, severe frosts and freezing fog is likely. Temperatures will remain below the average, with perhaps some recovery to near normal temperatures in the west at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A fair summary i think.

A lot of uncertainty beyond day 5 showing in the ens. we can see, obviously reflected in the MO data by the sounds of things.Stubborn +ve heights further east and and trough disruption expected as it reaches the UK.We find ourselves in the middle.

This wont be resolved overnight or indeed perhaps for a few days imo. 

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

I think severe frosts and freezing fog will be reserved for Scotland. There’s nothing to suggest anything that cold for most of England, especially the south!

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I think severe frosts and freezing fog will be reserved for Scotland. There’s nothing to suggest anything that cold for most of England, especially the south!

Not sure why this is so amusing @abbie123??

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
19 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Not sure why this is so amusing @abbie123??

Temperatures below average in January and no frost.:rofl:

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
19 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Temperatures below average in January and no frost.:rofl:

I still don’t see your point. I was referring to the Met Office mentioning severe frosts. There’s nothing to suggest that in most of England with the predicted warmer uppers. Yes, there will be frosts, but nothing severe if current output comes to fruition.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I still don’t see your point. I was referring to the Met Office mentioning severe frosts. There’s nothing to suggest that in most of England with the predicted warmer uppers. Yes, there will be frosts, but nothing severe if current output comes to fruition.

I won't say no more .:cold:

IMG_0345.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

-2 is not a severe frost! I rest my case

 

8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

-2 is not a severe frost! I rest my case

-5 -  -6 for wales last one from me .

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
14 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

 

-5 -  -6 for wales last one from me .

Maybe you should read my original response! I said most of England and also I was referring to their outlook which begins next week. I see you cherry picked one GFS run for January 16th. Last from me too, @abbie123

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Maybe you should read my original response! I said most of England and also I was referring to their outlook which begins next week. I see you cherry picked one GFS run for January 16th. Last from me too, @abbie123

Well meto are forecasting severe frosts for uk they have lot more data in front of them so they must be seeing something rest my case move on.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
16 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Well meto are forecasting severe frosts for uk they have lot more data in front of them so they must be seeing something rest my case move on.:D

So, based on their own forecast for next week, how come most of the U.K. doesn’t drop much below zero at night on any day, especially in the south? As I said before, based on current output! In fact, they have temperatures above zero for the south every night next week. I guess the definition of a severe frost has changed over the years. 

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Jan 2018 to Saturday 20 Jan 2018:

Dry, bright and cold weather is most likely on Thursday, although rain and hill snow could persist in the far northeast. Milder conditions with outbreaks of rain are then likely to arrive in the north and west by Friday, perhaps with some hill snow in the north. Through the rest of the period, it is most likely to stay generally unsettled with bands of rain arriving from the west, interspersed with drier, brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible at times especially in the north and it will often be windy, with a risk of gales or severe gales at times. Temperatures will probably vary around average, however there is a low probability of generally colder and drier conditions at times in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-06

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Jan 2018 to Sunday 4 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January unsettled weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems influencing our weather. We are likely to see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of show at times especially in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures will probably vary around normal, with colder and milder interludes at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

That’s killed the easterly! Yesterday, severe frosts, today rain and severe gales. Looks like it’s definitely heading in the wrong direction for any prolonged cold.

Edited by CK1981
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Huge backtrack from the met office! what's worse, they don't even expect cold zonality by the look of things.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Huge backtrack from the met office! what's worse, they don't even expect cold zonality by the look of things.

REally????

They mention snow in the mid and long term- not sure how they would be mentioning snow if it was mild zonality!!

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Medium term suggest fronts coming in at wrong angle for frontal snow events instead just on hills.

Hope this will put to bed people chasing that phantom easterly on the model thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

REally????

They mention snow in the mid and long term- not sure how they would be mentioning snow if it was mild zonality!!

Snow in the north which is not a big deal. That's achievable with ordinary zonal weather. With cold zonality you can get snow events in more areas.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
21 minutes ago, joggs said:

Medium term suggest fronts coming in at wrong angle for frontal snow events instead just on hills.

Hope this will put to bed people chasing that phantom easterly on the model thread.

Agreed! Let's hope they are going to be wrong.

Edited by karyo
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