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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The update looks ok to me given the current model picture. It doesn't not indicate a quick transition to Atlantic weather with the cold weather holding on especially the further east you go.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

This update looks to me that cold is going to fight it out  and that means there could be battlegrounds  scenarios  cold holding on in the east I like that..

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 17 Jan 2018:

On Monday and Tuesday we see colder conditions established across the UK, bringing plenty of dry and bright weather, but also some wintry showers for eastern areas. Strong winds are likely in places, especially the south and west, making it feel bitterly cold here and it will be frosty for many overnight. As we go into the second half of next week we are likely to see frontal systems make erratic progress into the west of the UK, bringing with them the threat of some snow. There will still be plenty of dry weather, perhaps with some sunshine, though wintry showers may continue in the east. It will stay generally cold with overnight frosts, but temperatures may recover closer to normal at times from the west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 18 Jan 2018 to Thursday 1 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January a return to more mobile weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems returning to influence our weather, but exactly when this occurs is still subject to a lot of uncertainty. As changeable conditions become re-established we will see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of one or more significant snow events, especially at the start of this period. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be cold at first, but return to near normal, again with the timing of this transition still open to a lot of uncertainty.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 17 Jan 2018:

On Monday and Tuesday we see colder conditions established across the UK, bringing plenty of dry and bright weather, but also some wintry showers for eastern areas. Strong winds are likely in places, especially the south and west, making it feel bitterly cold here and it will be frosty for many overnight. As we go into the second half of next week we are likely to see frontal systems make erratic progress into the west of the UK, bringing with them the threat of some snow. There will still be plenty of dry weather, perhaps with some sunshine, though wintry showers may continue in the east. It will stay generally cold with overnight frosts, but temperatures may recover closer to normal at times from the west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

They lost the gradual return to milder conditions so that's a good step.

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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
18 minutes ago, karyo said:

They lost the gradual return to milder conditions so that's a good step.

 but temperatures may recover closer to normal at times from the west. as distinct from Temperatures will recover......  suggests to me there is still a uncertainity about next week. At least we have got the weekend to look foward to

Edited by DOdo
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
50 minutes ago, DOdo said:

 but temperatures may recover closer to normal at times from the west. as distinct from Temperatures will recover......  suggests to me there is still a uncertainity about next week. At least we have got the weekend to look foward to

Their wording always changes very subtly. Better to 'recover closer to normal' than 'milder'. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

Very slight change of wording but I'd say in a positive way. Yes still uncertain but seems even more uncertain now of mild weather making inroads

Edited by Decemberof2010
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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Way back in the classic winter of 62-63 there were a few times when the met office hinted at a similar thing but as we know most if not all attempts to replace the cold failed. it must be a nightmare for the forecasters to get these situations right and they are quite correct to hedge their bets Imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Have to say I am bemused by people's reactions to the Met Office updates. The updates are virtually the same, just worded very slightly differently, yet people are calling these updates positive and yesterday were calling them negative. I thought they looked positive yesterday and didn't understand people's negativity at the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Have to say I am bemused by people's reactions to the Met Office updates. The updates are virtually the same, just worded very slightly differently, yet people are calling these updates positive and yesterday were calling them negative. I thought they looked positive yesterday and didn't understand people's negativity at the time.

Yes they are worded slightly differently, but as always with Meto updates you need to read between the lines. The word Mild has disappeared on the latest update which is a positive for sure. The one from yesterday was pretty good imo as you say. However a definite upgrade on today's even if it's not totally obvious

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Posted
  • Location: Chorlton
  • Location: Chorlton

Listening to the radio at lunch time and john Kettley was on talking about storm Eleanor. When he was asked about what we should be expecting in the next few weeks he mentioned the cold spell which is being discussed in the model output thread but then he went on to say that they were expecting another big storm to hit in about 10 to 12 days time. Its unusual to make such a bold prediction for our small island so far out dont you think?

Edited by Acupuncturist
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Posted
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl
  • Weather Preferences: any storms
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl
16 minutes ago, Acupuncturist said:

Listening to the radio at lunch time and john Kettley was on talking about storm Eleanor. When he was asked about what we should be expecting in the next few weeks he mentioned the cold spell which is being discussed in the model output thread but then he went on to say that they were expecting another big storm to hit in about 10 to 12 days time. Its unusual to make such a bold prediction for our small island so far out dont you think?

I don't think it is a bold prediction .

On average in a british winter there's probably a wind storm every 2 weeks 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Jan 2018 to Thursday 18 Jan 2018:

We are most likely to see Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west during this period, which will try to erode the cold 'blocked' conditions which have become established across the UK over recent days. Otherwise, there is likely to be plenty of dry weather with some sunshine for most, especially in the east. Frontal systems making limited progress into the west of the UK during the period may bring outbreaks of rain, which may also bring the threat of some snow in places, although there remains a lot of uncertainty. Under clearer skies by night, severe frosts and freezing fog is likely. Temperatures will remain below the average, with perhaps some recovery to near normal temperatures in the west at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Jan 2018 to Friday 2 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January a return to more unsettled weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems returning to influence our weather, but exactly when this occurs is still subject to a lot of uncertainty. As changeable conditions become re-established we will see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of one or more significant snow events, especially at the start of this period. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be cold at first, but return to near normal, again with the timing of this transition still open to a lot of uncertainty.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

So remaining pretty blocked and dry. They lost the wintry showers in the east so no real easterly either.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
37 minutes ago, karyo said:

So remaining pretty blocked and dry. They lost the wintry showers in the east so no real easterly either.

That fact that parts of Germany are shown to have +8 850's in the next few days says it all tbh the vast majority of mainland Europe is struggling for any meaningful cold air presently look east on the two charts below the difference is massive

2017

gfs-1-541.thumb.png.e7fc0addb9898a689ef9cdfce07cb2bf.png

2016

gfs-1-54.thumb.png.0ac6c19b16dc9cd16b7bcda6b4412cf1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That fact that parts of Germany are shown to have +8 850's in the next few days says it all tbh the vast majority of mainland Europe is struggling for any meaningful cold air presently look east on the two charts below the difference is massive

2017

gfs-1-541.thumb.png.e7fc0addb9898a689ef9cdfce07cb2bf.png

2016

gfs-1-54.thumb.png.0ac6c19b16dc9cd16b7bcda6b4412cf1.png

A big difference there SS and the daytime 2m temps are +12c this year to -12c even -20's in some places last year :shok:

gfs-9-54_aio1.png

Methinks the US and Canada have had all the cold to themselves of late :blink2:

gfsna-9-102_jew6.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Jan 2018 to Friday 2 Feb 2018:

During the second half of January a return to more unsettled weather looks likely, with Atlantic systems returning to influence our weather, but exactly when this occurs is still subject to a lot of uncertainty. As changeable conditions become re-established we will see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of one or more significant snow events, especially at the start of this period. It is likely to be windy at times, with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be cold at first, but return to near normal, again with the timing of this transition still open to a lot of uncertainty.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Doesn't seem to tie in with the teleconnection gurus talk of increased NE blocking towards the middle to the end of the month?

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