Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Dec 2017 to Sunday 31 Dec 2017:

In the run up to Christmas it is most probable that the UK should see temperatures near to or above average for the time of year. On Friday it will probably start mainly fine and dry with bright spells for many. However, skies are likely to turn cloudier in the north and west with outbreaks of rain developing into Saturday. Into the Christmas period, timings remain uncertain, however rain and cloud should clear southeastwards, leaving drier, brighter and colder conditions for a time. Showers are likely for some, and these could turn wintry in the north. In the period between Christmas and New Year, very unsettled conditions look likely with gales at times, and perhaps showery conditions in the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jan 2018 to Monday 15 Jan 2018:

At the start of the new year, it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Temperatures will be near to or below average and snow is likely, at times, especially across northern parts of the country. Through the first half of January confidence becomes very low, but longer periods of more settled weather may become established. This would lead to prolonged spells of drier and colder conditions, as well as an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Any milder, wetter, and windier spells should become more short-lived during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[mountain shadow]

Something has to give sooner or later on this extended forecast. I see precious little sign of blocking on the output at the moment with the PNA ridge shoving the PV over our side of the hemisphere.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Dec 2017 to Monday 1 Jan 2018:

At the start of this period largely mild conditions are expected to dominate, as a band of rain, which may be heavy at times, moves slowly and erratically southeastwards. As this rain clears away brighter and colder conditions will move across the country and showers are likely, especially across the north and west. Some of these showers may be wintry, particularly over high ground, however in the south and east it will remain mostly dry. In the period between Christmas and New Year, very unsettled conditions look likely to develop with gales at times along with some heavy rain. Temperatures will fluctuate during this period between milder, wet and windy spells and colder but brighter, showery interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 2 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 16 Jan 2018:

At the start of the new year, it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Bands of rain are expected to move across the country with heavy, and perhaps wintry showers moving in behind. The best of any drier weather will be in southern and eastern parts. Through the first half of January confidence remain low, but longer periods of more settled weather may become established. This would lead to longer spells of drier and colder conditions, as well as an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[mountain shadow]

Yeh, so there's the change, more wintry options being pushed back until mid January.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Yeh, so there's the change, more wintry options being pushed back until mid January.

not how I read it - they don't have a clue in reality so covering their backs. they cant see a slow moving pattern in week one, that's for sure !!

[iapennell]

As per my Winter 2017 -18 Prediction Christmas into the New Year is looking unsettled, with gales and some heavy rain (and possible snow at times in the North).  The gales and heavy rain will be focused on the North and Scotland.

We have Storm Dylan predicted for the Christmas period, which will be interesting!

It is interesting to note the hint of colder drier conditions to be expected as we head to mid-January ; I did predict a much colder spell of weather for the second half of January 2018 and remain very confident that Britain as a whole will see some widespread snow (more than has occurred during the last fortnight) along with some very low temperatures then.

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, iapennell said:

As per my Winter 2017 -18 Prediction Christmas into the New Year is looking unsettled, with gales and some heavy rain (and possible snow at times in the North).  The gales and heavy rain will be focused on the North and Scotland.

We have Storm Dylan predicted for the Christmas period, which will be interesting!

It is interesting to note the hint of colder drier conditions to be expected as we head to mid-January ; I did predict a much colder spell of weather for the second half of January 2018 and remain very confident that Britain as a whole will see some widespread snow (more than has occurred during the last fortnight) along with some very low temperatures then.

I'm very confident that your january forecast will be spot on.

[karyo]

21 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm very confident that your january forecast will be spot on.

Is it me, or is it rather difficult to find Ian's forecast thread? I accessed it once a couple of weeks ago after I was notified by others. Now I am looking for it again but can't find it.

@iapennell  Would you consider posting on the Model Discussion thread? I am sure I am not the only one who has trouble accessing your forecast and would benefit from reading your thoughts.

[Summer Sun]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is it me, or is it rather difficult to find Ian's forecast thread? I accessed it once a couple of weeks ago after I was notified by others. Now I am looking for it again but can't find it.

@iapennell  Would you consider posting on the Model Discussion thread? I am sure I am not the only one who has trouble accessing your forecast and would benefit from reading your thoughts.

It was on page 2 might be worth bookmarking it?

 

[Norrance]

7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Yeh, so there's the change, more wintry options being pushed back until mid January.

Also a change from drier and colder with chances of snow to just drier and colder. A UK or nearby Euro high rather than a Scandi or  high to the North of the UK. Either way it would be a chunk of Winter gone with reduced snow chances for most.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 2 Jan 2018:

The Christmas period sees a gradual transition from the settled conditions of previous days, to more changeable weather. Initially mild and breezy conditions are expected to dominate before a band of rain moves erratically southeastwards during Sunday. As the rain clears away brighter and colder conditions follow across the north with some showers, these heaviest in the northwest and bringing some hill snow. More persistent rain could occur further south on Monday. Very unsettled and windy conditions are likely for the period into the New Year, with most places seeing spells of heavy rain and showers, and with some snow possible at times in the north. It will be windy, with a risk of severe gales at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 17 Jan 2018:

As we move into early January, unsettled and often windy weather is likely to dominate the UK, with periods of rain interspersed by brighter, showery conditions. The best chance of drier and brighter interludes will be across southern and eastern parts. Through the first half of January confidence in the forecast remains low, but the trend points towards some longer periods of more settled weather developing, especially in the south. This would lead to longer spells of drier and colder conditions, as well as an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Not the update we wanted to see! They are basically expecting a mid latitude high to set up shop with some surface cold.

I guess the fact that GLOSEA is not seeing a SSW any more has led to a watered down outlook in terms of wintry potential. A few days ago they were talking about colder weather with snow in places.

[mountain shadow]

And again shows that the Met Office are no better than some of the excellent forecasters we have on here and indeed that they are completely reliant on the same model output that we see to make their predictions.

It is becoming clearer to them at least that signals for a Scandi High are lessening in January.

[Scandinavian High.]

There forecasts change daily I wouldn't worry about it ..

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

There forecasts change daily I wouldn't worry about it ..

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

There forecasts change daily I wouldn't worry about it ..

Who's worried? Not me.

They do give an indication as to what the Met Office's thoughts are and you can clearly see a step change away from colder conditions courtesy of a scandi high with perhaps a high centered over or around England with the jet through the North West.

[lassie23]

They like to cover their backs do the met office, a cold, mild, settled, changeable, wet, dry outlook

[Neiller22]

Don’t rate their 30 day outlooks one bit. Havnt for years. Pretty poor generally in getting it right. They change with the wind. 

[mulzy]

34 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

Don’t rate their 30 day outlooks one bit. Havnt for years. Pretty poor generally in getting it right. They change with the wind. 

Is there anywhere we can view the skill scores of the ECMWF and Glosea medium/long range models?  I am guessing that as with all medium/long forecasts, it's pretty poor - better than coin toss but not much better.  Happy to be corrected.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Not the update we wanted to see! They are basically expecting a mid latitude high to set up shop with some surface cold.

I guess the fact that GLOSEA is not seeing a SSW any more has led to a watered down outlook in terms of wintry potential. A few days ago they were talking about colder weather with snow in places.

Im afraid its all going pete tong.

I wouldnt be at all suprised if places that havent seen snow in December dont see any until late jan at the earliest...i agee with you 100percent that update screams euro possibly sceuro high with the jet roaring away north of scotland.

In short a +NAO set up with zero chance of snow.

Another crap winter beckons.

Unless something dramatic like a SSW occurs im already feeling like giving up on january.

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unless something dramatic like a SSW occurs im already feeling like giving up on january.

You could've fooled us NWS! 

There's 12 days of December left yet. A bit early to be giving up on next month!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

You could've fooled us NWS! 

There's 12 days of December left yet. A bit early to be giving up on next month!

Just feel fed up mate...think its the prospect of wind and rain..

When you get it for 75% of the year it can grind you down

:-(