Meto Uk Further Outlook

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow moving weather patterns, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

This looks better than yesterday's update.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

This looks better than yesterday's update.

That it does, karyo...is that a wee hint toward a European block setting up?

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, karyo said:

This looks better than yesterday's update.

Upgrade 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That it does, karyo...is that a wee hint toward a European block setting up?

As long as it is a North European block then it is welcome to set up shop and stay there. 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Upgrade 

Indeed! Things are feeling different this year.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Saturday 9 Dec 2017:

As we end November and move into the start of December, conditions look set to remain fairly similar, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Cold, crisp sunshine will be prevalent throughout, but with showers for some; these mainly affecting exposed northern and eastern parts, especially the North Sea coasts, but not exclusively. The showers will be heavy at times and wintry too, with any snow accumulations most likely over higher ground, but perhaps to some lower levels at times in the north. Staying rather cold throughout, with overnight frosts and temperatures generally below the average. However, there is a chance of less cold, cloudier weather spreading southeastwards, with some rain at times, particularly later in the period, which would likely see temperatures recover closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Sunday 10 Dec 2017:

Friday is likely to begin cold with wintry showers, especially in the east, and some accumulations of snow are possible on hills. However, rain and less cold weather will probably arrive in the west later, or early on Saturday, before spreading southeast to most other parts through the day. It will be breezy with gales possible at first in the east. An east to west split is favoured on Sunday into early next week. Cold, frosty weather is expected in the east, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry, whilst slightly less cold conditions and some rain is expected in the west. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Dec 2017 to Monday 25 Dec 2017:

The first few days of this period are most likely to be dominated by a northerly airstream bringing a mix of sunshine and showers to the British Isles. The showers are likely to be wintry even to low levels, with some accumulations on hills, especially in the east and northeast. Temperatures are set to be rather cold or cold everywhere, with widespread overnight frosts. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of periods of mobility developing, with an associated increase in rainfall (especially across some western areas). This would encourage temperatures to recover closer to average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Monday 11 Dec 2017:

It is expected to be rather cloudy for most on Saturday, with outbreaks of rain or drizzle at times. Breezy too, especially around the coasts. Feeling milder than earlier in the week, with temperatures nearer to average for the beginning of December. A north to south split is favoured from Sunday and into early next week. Turning colder once again across the north of the UK, with frosty weather returning, along with sunshine and showers, some wintry. However, it may stay slightly less cold in the south with the risk of some rain here at times. Thereafter, a cold northerly airstream may become established across all areas, with widespread night frost and sunshine and showers by day, the showers wintry even to low levels.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 12 Dec 2017:

A north to south split is favoured from Sunday and into early next week. It will be mainly cloudy in the north and west with some light rain or drizzle in places, however in the south and east it looks to be mainly dry with sunny spells, but perhaps some fog forming into the morning. Through the middle of the week, confidence in the forecast becomes much lower. However there will be a longer spell of rain before a return to colder conditions with sunshine and showers, some turning wintry. Thereafter it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread frosts to start the day, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, which may fall as sleet or snow even at low levels

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 27 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow even to low levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems crossing the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[LRD]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 27 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow even to low levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, from around the middle of December there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems crossing the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Interesting update. Dominant high pressure just where we want it (well, where most of us who like seasonal weather want it anyway). Persistent with the 'getting milder at mid month' message but it feels like the timescale for the milder weather to win out is being put back gradually. Gut feel and not based on any science whatsoever but I reckon it will be a cold, frosty December. I am not expecting much in the way of significant snow, unfortunately. Mild eventually winning out near the end of the month, perhaps even into 2018. And, from a cold, seasonal perspective, that could be as good as the winter gets 

Edited November 28, 2017 by LRD

[Don]

5 hours ago, LRD said:

Interesting update. Dominant high pressure just where we want it (well, where most of us who like seasonal weather want it anyway). Persistent with the 'getting milder at mid month' message but it feels like the timescale for the milder weather to win out is being put back gradually. Gut feel and not based on any science whatsoever but I reckon it will be a cold, frosty December. I am not expecting much in the way of significant snow, unfortunately. Mild eventually winning out near the end of the month, perhaps even into 2018. And, from a cold, seasonal perspective, that could be as good as the winter gets 

Trouble is, they seem to be less certain of the cold spell than they were in yesterday's update, now stating confidence is low.  The December outlook in their latest contingency forecast is pointing towards a colder than average December but state there is a chance it could be milder than average, too.  The forecast follows on to say that January and February are likely to be mild and wet.  I'm still of the feeling that this coming winter will once again be largely snow less for the south, but we shall see.......

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Next week starts rather cloudy, but dry with some rain or drizzle in the north and west. Meanwhile, the best of any brightness at first is likely in the southeast. The rain will slowly move southwards with colder, brighter and showery conditions returning across all areas. The colder and brighter conditions are likely to remain through the rest of next week with the chance of some heavy showers, some of which will fall as snow. For the remainder of this period a blocked pattern is likely to persist meaning it will probably stay mainly dry and cold with widespread overnight frosts and a mixture of sunshine and showers. These falling as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of heavy rain will push southwards across the UK. For much of the south, ahead of the rain it will be dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

At the start of this period confidence is low, but high pressure is more likely to dominate to the north and west of the UK, which will give us mainly dry and cold conditions, with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to fall as sleet or snow, chiefly over the hills but also to lower levels at times. Temperatures are set to be cold, with widespread frosts overnight. However, through this period, there is an increasing chance of seeing Atlantic weather systems cross the UK, with an associated increase in rainfall, especially across western areas. This would also bring about generally milder conditions.

Updated: 01:31 on Thu 30 Nov 2017 GMT

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Stuart said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Through Tuesday and Wednesday next week a band of heavy rain will push southwards across the UK. For much of the south, ahead of the rain it will be dry and mild with some brightness. Brighter colder conditions will follow into the north with wintry showers. The rest of the week looks uncertain. However it is more likely to stay rather unsettled with frontal systems bringing rain and strong winds to western parts. Brighter conditions with wintry showers are likely across the north and milder conditions are looking more plausible in the south, but cold and frosty is more likely further north. Towards the end of this period weather patterns are likely to be slow moving bringing a mixture of colder drier periods and short lived milder, wetter, windier interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

 

I see they have started backtracking with a bit of everything thrown in and the cold mainly for the north.

[mountain shadow]

It only goes to show that the Met Office, despite being Professionals are no more or no less as reliant on model output as we mere amateurs are. 

 

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It only goes to show that the Met Office, despite being Professionals are no more or no less as reliant on model output as we mere amateurs are. 

 

That goes without saying in my view. No human can produce a worhtwhile forecast using their basic meteorology training, even up to Phd level for more than 24 hours in a changeable situation, possibly 48 hours in a fairly static situation. The data is just too huge to be assimilated by even the most expert forecaster. Thus computer models were/are still being developed that take into account all the hugely complex formula needed to solve the laws of thermo-dynamics which is what meteorology is based on. The forecaster has become more and more reliant on their interpretation of the models, of varying time lengths. Again all I can really offer beyond this is to read the Met O explanation on computer modelling. If I can find it I will drop it in here, it is well worth reading to give a better idea of just what is and is not possible.

This is not a bad start

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems

 

Edited November 30, 2017 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

The second half of December is likely to see weather systems be fairly slow moving. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier periods with some short lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially across the north. Confidence is currently low for which pattern will be most likely prevail at this stage as it currently looks to be a constant battle between weather systems arriving from the south and west against the push of colder air from the north. This suggests temperatures will generally be below average with some milder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Don]

5 hours ago, karyo said:

I see they have started backtracking with a bit of everything thrown in and the cold mainly for the north.

It is a bit of a backtrack but their 16-30 day outlook looks to be a bit of an upgrade with generally colder than average conditions dominating until the end of December, rather than it becoming milder around mid-month. 

[karyo]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

It is a bit of a backtrack but their 16-30 day outlook looks to be a bit of an upgrade with generally colder than average conditions dominating until the end of December, rather than it becoming milder around mid-month. 

True. That's something at least but too far away to have any confidence in it.

[Don]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

True. That's something at least but too far away to have any confidence in it.

Yes, I'd rather see an upgrade in the sort term!