Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Nov 2017 to Thursday 30 Nov 2017:

To start it will often be cloudy with some outbreaks of heavy rain at times, possibly falling as snow over the hills of Scotland. It will remain rather breezy, with the risk of gales towards the north and west. Through the latter half of next week, the south of the UK should see spells of cloudy and wet weather, with temperatures generally around or above average. Meanwhile the north is likely to be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty mornings. Towards the end of November confidence is low, but rather mixed conditions of cloud and rain (with snow in northern parts) is likely, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Dec 2017 to Friday 15 Dec 2017:

Through this period the weather may remain largely "blocked", meaning Atlantic weather systems and winter storms are less likely to affect the UK. Changes in weather type will be slower, perhaps with a high chance of seeing drier than average weather, although confidence is low at this stage. Temperatures are likely to remain near or below average for most of this period. Although, there are signals for milder interludes to occur later in the period as weather systems begin to make inroads.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[booferking]

21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Nov 2017 to Thursday 30 Nov 2017:

To start it will often be cloudy with some outbreaks of heavy rain at times, possibly falling as snow over the hills of Scotland. It will remain rather breezy, with the risk of gales towards the north and west. Through the latter half of next week, the south of the UK should see spells of cloudy and wet weather, with temperatures generally around or above average. Meanwhile the north is likely to be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty mornings. Towards the end of November confidence is low, but rather mixed conditions of cloud and rain (with snow in northern parts) is likely, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Wonder how the met going to spin this one around without us noticing for the north looks far from dry and colder mid week

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Nov 2017 to Friday 1 Dec 2017:

The north may start cold and dry on Wednesday, but outbreaks of rain will spread north to affect all parts, giving snow over high ground of Scotland. Becoming windy generally, with gales in places. For the end of the next week into the following weekend unsettled condition will probably dominate, giving wet and windy conditions at times, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures mainly above average. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter but cold at times. These colder conditions might extend south across the UK at times giving wintry showers. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Dec 2017 to Saturday 16 Dec 2017:

The weather at the start of December looks likely to be in a slow moving pattern, with a few days of drier and brighter conditions likely, although confidence is low at this stage. Thereafter it looks as though a more mobile weather pattern will become established, with some cloudy, wet and windy interludes as frontal systems move across the UK. Temperatures in this period are likely to start off below normal, but with some milder periods developing later on.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[swfc]

On ‎09‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 12:54, jvenge said:

Seems straight forward. Preferred outcome is mild and wet for the west and dry and close to average, possibly below, for the east. 

 

Finding this meto outlook slightly odd???.Why does it need updating every 24 hours if it has any reliability ete

[swfc]

so its blown itself out of water at 24 hours???

 

[jvenge]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Finding this meto outlook slightly odd???.Why does it need updating every 24 hours if it has any reliability ete

No idea why my message from 2016 is in your message ;-)

But I can take a shot at that. UKMO model runs twice a day. ECM twice a day. GFS 4 times a day (excessive, in my opinion and the output thread would have more sanity without it), and that's before you start talking about the Glosea model and some of the smaller ones (GEM, JMA).

All of these models have ensembles/members and sometimes they combine to give a percentage probability, which is then most likely checked manually by some professionals to spot any issues/bias/etc and they then give a forecast of the most likely, which is never certain. So, if the information given to those professionals changes each day, it therefore makes sense their minds could also change. Or, sometimes, even if they receive new information, their own expertise may make them sit on their hands or go with their old guidance. 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Nov 2017 to Saturday 2 Dec 2017:

Thursday will probably be wet and windy for most, with heavy rain, gales and hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. On Friday and over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some drier, brighter, or perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally but cold at times. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions may settle down, with a period of drier, brighter, colder conditions possible by the start of December, though this could be interrupted by a few showers.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Dec 2017 to Sunday 17 Dec 2017:

A few days of cold, drier and brighter weather is the most likely scenario at the beginning of December, although confidence is low at this stage and there could well be showers around too. Changes in the weather will tend to be rather slow but it looks as though the second and third weeks of December are more likely to include cloudy, wet and windy interludes with milder temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Nov 2017 to Sunday 3 Dec 2017:

Friday will probably be wet and windy for many, with heavy rain pushing across most parts, perhaps giving some hill snow in Scotland. It is likely to be mild in the south, but rather cold in the north. Over next weekend, wet and windy weather will predominate, especially for central and southern areas, and temperatures will be mainly above average here. There will be some brief spells of drier, brighter, and perhaps showery weather too. Further north it will probably be drier and brighter generally, but cold at times with some wintry showers over higher ground. Towards the end of the month confidence becomes low, but it looks likely that the mixed weather conditions will persist, though may be interspersed with some drier, brighter and colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Dec 2017 to Monday 18 Dec 2017:

There will be a mixture of bright, cold spells and wet, milder interludes to begin the new month. Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow. Looking ahead into the rest of December, some periods of wet and perhaps windy weather remain likely at times but there is a small chance that more settled weather will prevail across all parts, bringing some dry and bright days, but cold and frosty nights. However, confidence is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Nov 2017 to Monday 4 Dec 2017:

Over next weekend, bright spells and showers are likely in the north and west. Showers could be wintry in the northern half of the UK and perhaps over higher ground in central parts of England and Wales. Central and southeastern parts may well stay dry. It will be windy, particularly in the far north where gales are likely. Temperatures will generally be rather cold, and early frost is likely, especially in the north. Showers or longer spells of rain look likely next week too, with dry brighter spells in-between. Showers could sometimes be wintry over hills in Scotland and Northern England, but they will mainly fall as rain. Drier and brighter weather is likely in the east and southeast of England. It will probably be windy, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 19 Dec 2017:

During the first three weeks of December, confidence is low as to which types of weather will predominate. Periods of wet, mild and perhaps windy weather remain likely at times but there is a chance that more settled weather will prevail across all parts, bringing some dry and bright days, but cold and frosty nights. Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[weirpig]

Thats quite a difference from yesterdays update!

[mountain shadow]

Met Office appear to not have a clue as to what the next three / four weeks has in store. 

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Met Office appear to not have a clue as to what the next three / four weeks has in store. 

 

Yes i think all bases are being covered

Fingers crossed for upgrades 

[BornFromTheVoid]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Met Office appear to not have a clue as to what the next three / four weeks has in store. 

 

Changes between these weather types are likely to be rather slow.

I think the line above is key. The MO seems to be suggesting slow moving Rossby waves and perhaps a weakened jet, so prolonged settled spells or prolonged unsettled spells. They just can't yet tell whether we'll get caught in the trough or ridge!
The positive to be taken from this is that there will probably be blocking nearby in this slow moving pattern, and not just an overpowering Atlantic train with quick switches between Atlantic lows and toppling highs.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 5 Dec 2017:

Wintry showers are likely to become confined to northern and eastern areas on Sunday, still with the risk of hail, sleet and some snow to lower levels. Into Monday, a band of cloud and rain with some hill snow may move across western parts. Thereafter, western and southern areas are likely to see further bouts of rain at times, with the risk of some snow over mainly the higher ground. It will often be rather cold here, although the far southwest could become milder at times. Further north, it is more likely that the weather will remain cold with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Winds will often be strong with a risk of gales for some.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 20 Dec 2017:

During December, confidence is low as weather patterns may continue to be fairly slow moving. It is possible that there will be spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 6 Dec 2017:

A cold and frosty start for eastern areas on Monday, but rain, which will already be across western parts, should move southeast through the day. Some hill snow likely, as the rain clears to squally showers, these turning wintry over the hills. Further showers or longer spells of rain, with some hill snow likely on Tuesday. By midweek, some organised rain is likely in the north and southwest at first, with possibly some hill snow. Elsewhere, a continuing mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, with some snow reaching lower levels later. A slow moving pattern continues to be the more likely scenario into early December, with periods of rain, especially in the west, although these may be further south at times. Temperatures probably near to or slightly below the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Nov 2017 to Thursday 7 Dec 2017:

A cold and frosty start for both Tuesday and Wednesday, then a mixture of sunshine and showers, these wintry at times with snow over northern hills, and with possibly spells of more persistent rain for some eastern areas. It will be windy too with a risk of gales in the north and east, and this will make it feel particularly cold. These cold and showery conditions look likely to continue into the weekend, with the showers most frequent and wintry in the north and east, with drier, sunnier weather elsewhere. Thereafter slow moving weather patterns continue to be the more likely scenario into early December, with some periods of rain at times, especially in the west, and with temperatures probably near to or slightly below the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Dec 2017 to Friday 22 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, weather patterns are likely to continue to be fairly slow moving and this brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. It is probable that there will be some spells of wet, windy and at times mild weather with the wettest weather probably across western and perhaps some southern parts of the country. These may be interspersed with some drier and brighter spells too, when it could become colder with the risk of frost overnight. On the whole, temperatures may be a little colder than normal. Later in the month, it may become more generally unsettled and milder.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Friday 8 Dec 2017:

Wednesday and Thursday will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers. The showers mainly affecting exposed northern and eastern parts, especially the North Sea coasts, but not exclusively. The showers will be heavy at times and turning wintry over higher ground. Windy, with gales down the east coast on Wednesday. Similar conditions look likely to persist into Friday and the weekend, with showers continuing to affect eastern parts, but drier with plenty of sunshine elsewhere. The showers may be wintry across all parts, but any snow accumulations most likely over higher ground, but perhaps to some lower levels in the north. Staying rather cold, with temperatures below the average into early December. However, there is a chance of less cold, cloudier conditions spreading southeastwards, with some rain at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

During this period of December, it looks likely that the cold conditions may persist across the United Kingdom, with a generally blocked and slow moving weather patterns, which brings more uncertainty than normal into the forecast. We are likely to see a mixture of sunshine and showers for many, with the showers turning increasingly wintry over the hills, but not exclusively. Temperatures will probably be below the average through to mid-December. However, there is the chance of periods of milder, wetter and windier weather, with increased amounts of rainfall, during the middle of the month, especially in the west. This could see temperatures recover closer to the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14