Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Jan 2016 to Saturday 30 Jan 2016:

There is much uncertainty about the weather during the first couple of days, currently various fronts are expected to make slow progress eastwards across the UK, bringing rain, sleet and some snow in places. Wettest conditions will be in the west and eastern areas may remain cold and dry until the weekend. From the weekend onwards the slightly more likely scenario is for milder and unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain to move across all areas, with the heaviest rain likely in the west and southwest. Although it should be milder, there are likely to be colder spells between the bands of rain. The alternate less likely scenario is for the current split, of cold weather in the east and milder weather in the west, to persist.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 31 Jan 2016 to Sunday 14 Feb 2016:

As we move from January into February we continue in a very uncertain period of weather. The strongest signal is for the northern half of UK to see an unsettled period, with rain or showers, strong winds and some snow at times mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions with frost and fog at times, although even here occasional rain cannot be ruled out. Temperatures should be generally around average for the time of year, but towards the middle of February the potential for greater incidences of colder weather increases.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 31 Jan 2016 to Sunday 14 Feb 2016:

As we move from January into February we continue in a very uncertain period of weather. The strongest signal is for the northern half of UK to see an unsettled period, with rain or showers, strong winds and some snow at times mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions with frost and fog at times, although even here occasional rain cannot be ruled out. Temperatures should be generally around average for the time of year, but towards the middle of February the potential for greater incidences of colder weather increases.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Houston - we have lift off, right in line with my thoughts.

[shuggee]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The strongest signal is for the northern half of UK to see an unsettled period, with rain or showers, strong winds and some snow at times mixed with brighter, drier periods.

Classic.  They only missed out mentioning sunshine.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Sunday 31 Jan 2016:

During the course of this Friday, wet and windy but milder weather is expected to spread eastwards across all parts, followed by brighter conditions from the west later. The rain perhaps proceeded by snow across north-eastern Britain, but any snow becoming confined to the Scottish mountains by the end of the day. The weekend then looks set to be generally bright and breezy with scattered showers. The wind stronger and the showers most prevalent and heaviest towards the north and west, where more prolonged spells of rain are likely at times. Next week looks unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather, especially towards the north and west. Some frost can be expected at night during quieter interludes, with temperatures about average for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Feb 2016 to Monday 15 Feb 2016:

A typically changeable theme is the most likely scenario at this stage, with temperatures close to the seasonal average. The weather probably most unsettled towards the northwest and least unsettled towards the southeast. Frosty at times, though mainly towards the southeast where there is a little more potential for a more prolonged settled, colder period of weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Feb 2016 to Monday 15 Feb 2016:

A typically changeable theme is the most likely scenario at this stage, with temperatures close to the seasonal average. The weather probably most unsettled towards the northwest and least unsettled towards the southeast. Frosty at times, though mainly towards the southeast where there is a little more potential for a more prolonged settled, colder period of weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That's quite a change from yesterday's update. They have dropped the but towards the middle of February the potential for greater incidences of colder weather increases.

[feb1991blizzard]

I cant understand this for the life of me, its worrying though because I doubt they would change it back straight away without confidence, not sure how the signal could have changed between mid afternoon and midnight, I didn't know any LR models were run at that time, perhaps they made a mistake in the first place.

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I cant understand this for the life of me, its worrying though because I doubt they would change it back straight away without confidence, not sure how the signal could have changed between mid afternoon and midnight, I didn't know any LR models were run at that time, perhaps they made a mistake in the first place.

The stratospheric warming is showing as much in FI as it was yesterday so there must be other reasons that made them change it.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The stratospheric warming is showing as much in FI as it was yesterday so there must be other reasons that made them change it.

On the GFS yes, but they have better models than the GFS for strat monitoring.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

That's quite a change from yesterday's update. They have dropped the but towards the middle of February the potential for greater incidences of colder weather increases.

I'd have thought that the two MetO outlooks are similar, karyo??

Edited January 17, 2016 by Ed Stone
Grammar!

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'd have thought that the two MetO outlooks are similar, karyo??

Similar? The dropped sentence makes a crucial difference.

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'd have thought that the two MetO outlooks are similar, karyo??

Agree there Pete, With 'little more potential'  Sounds they are smelling an Easterly type flow for the South maybe.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

Similar? The dropped sentence makes a crucial difference.

The 'dropped sentence'?

[Summer Sun]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 'dropped sentence'?

Yesterday they had "but towards the middle of February the potential for greater incidences of colder weather increases"

[Lakigigar]

where there is a little more potential for a more prolonged settled, colder period of weather.

 

It isn't bad, this is also a good sentence, maybe not that good as the sentence they mentioned, but we have to look to the positive details. Chanches that they're right are actually zero on that term.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Jan 2016 to Monday 1 Feb 2016:

Sunshine and showers for most on Saturday, although southern parts may see more in the way of cloud with patchy rain and drizzle. On Sunday showers are expected to become less prevalent, although cloud will increase across the south and southwest later. This will bring outbreaks of rain and drizzle to these parts. Next week looks unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather, especially towards the north and west. Over northern parts hill snow is expected at times. Some quieter interludes are likely at times, mostly towards the southeast. Although temperatures are expected to be mostly near normal for this time of year, some frost and fog can be expected at night during the quieter interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 2 Feb 2016:

The northwest should have a cloudy and windy day on Sunday with outbreaks of rain. Further south and east it should start mainly dry and bright. The more unsettled conditions are expected to spread south-eastwards later on Sunday and during Monday. Next week looks to be changeable with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. The wettest and windiest weather is expected to occur in the north and west, with a risk of gales and snow on northern hills. The south and east should see the best of the drier and brighter weather. Temperatures will be generally near or a little above average, although some frost is likely in the drier and clearer interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Feb 2016 to Wednesday 17 Feb 2016:

A changeable spell of weather is most likely to persist through this period. It will be windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some dry and bright interludes. The wettest and windiest weather is expected to occur in the north and west, where occasional gales and hill snow is likely. The south and east should see the best of the dry and bright weather with mainly light winds. Temperatures should be near or a little above normal, although overnight frosts and fog are likely in the dry and clearer interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 3 Feb 2016:

Monday and Tuesday should be mainly cloudy and windy with outbreaks of rain in the north of the country. Drier conditions are likely across southern parts, but even here rain is possible at times, as rain pushes in from the Atlantic. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with gales occasionally in the far northwest, along with some snow on hills. As we move into February, a northwest to southeast split may develop, with unsettled weather in the northwest and drier, brighter conditions in the southeast. Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the south at first with a risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2016 to Thursday 18 Feb 2016:

The first weekend of February is expected to herald a move to slightly colder conditions as a north to south split forms across the country. Northern areas are forecast to remain wet and windy, with further gales and hill snow possible in the northwest. Southern parts should stay drier, with lighter winds. Temperatures through most of the period are likely to remain close to or slightly above average, but may fall just below normal by the middle of next month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2016 to Thursday 18 Feb 2016:

The first weekend of February is expected to herald a move to slightly colder conditions as a north to south split forms across the country. Northern areas are forecast to remain wet and windy, with further gales and hill snow possible in the northwest. Southern parts should stay drier, with lighter winds. Temperatures through most of the period are likely to remain close to or slightly above average, but may fall just below normal by the middle of next month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

That's a slightly more interesting update.

[March]

Although it basically says no cold with 2 weeks of Feb remaining.

[karyo]

1 hour ago, March said:

Although it basically says no cold with 2 weeks of Feb remaining.

At least it won't be too mild.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Jan 2016 to Thursday 4 Feb 2016:

Tuesday should see sun and blustery showers, but with outbreaks of rain in the north of the country. Drier conditions are likely across southern parts, but even here showers are possible. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest of the week and into next weekend, with severe gales possible in the far northwest, along with some snow on northern hills. As we move into February, a northwest to southeast split may develop, with unsettled weather in the northwest and the best of any drier, brighter conditions in the southeast. Temperatures should be around average for much of the country, but slightly below in the more settled spells in the south with a risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast