Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jan 2014 to Thursday 30 Jan 2014:

 

Current indications suggest that the recent unsettled conditions will persist at first. However there are then some signals that the weather may undergo a change later in this period, as colder conditions become increasingly likely.This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January, although mainly across the northern parts of the UK. This also indicates the potential for more settled conditions, bringing less in the way of windy and wet weather by the end of the month.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Edited January 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

No update from Stewart yesterday so here it is

 

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 15 Jan 2014:

 

Unsettled conditions continue on Monday, with strong to gale force winds, a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, and the best of any drier weather in northeast England. Winds ease through Tuesday, but it will remain largely unsettled. Temperatures will generally be around normal but feeling colder in the wind and rain. A brief drier and more settled interlude is possible later in the week, however further unsettled weather then follows this. These unsettled conditions are likely to be less windy, with the best of the drier spells in the south and east, and these could also be longer lasting than of late. Temperatures will initially be near normal but there are indications of it then turning colder, with an increased risk of frost, especially in the north.

 

Updated: 1147 on Wed 1 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Jan 2014 to Friday 31 Jan 2014:

Current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through mid-January. Some signals are emerging suggesting that the weather may undergo a change later this month allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. A change to a colder weather type would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1202 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Jan 2014 to Friday 31 Jan 2014:

Current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through mid-January. Some signals are emerging suggesting that the weather may undergo a change later this month allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. A change to a colder weather type would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1202 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

Hmmmm,not really seeing where they are getting this change to wintry conditions from hand on heart.

[syed2878]

interesting the wording on that met outlook few days ago they were going for wintery condisions for the north. So they must be picking up some strong signals from the data they have.

[phil nw.]

Hmmmm,not really seeing where they are getting this change to wintry conditions from hand on heart.

There are suggestions of heights building over the continent in week 2 looking at the overnight ensembles.

However the colder outlook that the Met are talking about is beyond that and i think they may seeing the upper Strat.warmings and the possible effect on the 500hPa pattern if it downwells-hence the outlook for this in 16-30 day range.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Jan 2014 to Thursday 16 Jan 2014:

 

Remaining generally unsettled with strong to gale force winds giving a mixture of sunshine and showers, these probably heaviest and most frequent in northwestern areas. There is also a risk of more prolonged periods of rain affecting parts of southern and eastern Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday. The remainder of the week will remain rather unsettled with sunshine and showers interspersed with bands of more prolonged rain at times. Some of the showers may be wintry over northern hills at times. Conditions however, are unlikely to be as wet and windy as recent weeks. Overall, temperatures look like staying fairly close to average for the time of year through this period, however the frequency of colder interludes with frost and icy patches may increase by the middle of January.

 

Updated: 1202 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

Hmmmm,not really seeing where they are getting this change to wintry conditions from hand on heart.

 

but then you have much less data than they have and with due respect they do have professional expertise-most on here do not!

[Sussex Jules]

but then you have much less data than they have and with due respect they do have professional expertise-most on here do not!

My old Gran used to say to me a little bit of knowledge is dangerous!

[sebastiaan1973]

There are suggestions of heights building over the continent in week 2 looking at the overnight ensembles.

However the colder outlook that the Met are talking about is beyond that and i think they may seeing the upper Strat.warmings and the possible effect on the 500hPa pattern if it downwells-hence the outlook for this in 16-30 day range.

 

Or MJO developments?

[phil nw.]

Or MJO developments?

Looking at that i wouldn't think the MO can take much guidance at present sebastiaan.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

any organised tropical convection has been mainly absent for weeks with a weak and varying MJO forecast.

 

I would guess that the upper warmings may be the main factor looking that far ahead.

[feb1991blizzard]

From what I can see, the wording is exactly how it should be worded, certainly how I would be wording it, offering up the POSSIBILITY of colder weather, they can then adjust it gradually as we get nearer the timeframe, be that updrading or downgrading, if the warming is ineffective or doesn't propagate then they can remove the cold bit or put it back to mid feb if further disruption to the upper vortex is in the offing else if there is a large bitter clustering at the end of the run on the ECM / MOGREPS ens by the time we get to 15th /20 th Jan then they can upgrade it to well below with sleet / snow possible to low levels, I don't see the problem.

Edited January 2, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

but then you have much less data than they have and with due respect they do have professional expertise-most on here do not!

Fair comment JH.

[bluearmy]

Looking at that i wouldn't think the MO can take much guidance at present sebastiaan.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

any organised tropical convection has been mainly absent for weeks with a weak and varying MJO forecast.

 

I would guess that the upper warmings may be the main factor looking that far ahead.

 

according to ian, it was ecm ens/mogreps clusterings pointing to colder type patterns becoming established. nick F alluded to similar last week. i must say that this leaves me confused unless there were clusters present in the last ec 32 run which sniffed the same. apparently it was not strat led.

[feb1991blizzard]

Bloody downgrade coming tomorrow me thinks

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Jan 2014 to Friday 17 Jan 2014:

The unsettled theme looks set to continue through the rest of next week onwards into the following week. Whilst this means showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. The most frequent and most persistent rain is then likely to be to the west and northwest where there is also a risk of occasional gales in exposed areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to often be near or just above average to the south and a little colder to the north at first. Later in the period we may see a slightly higher occurrence of colder interludes between spells of rain leading to an increased risk of frost and icy patches compared to recent weeks.

Updated: 1156 on Fri 3 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1208 on Fri 3 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Jan 2014 to Saturday 18 Jan 2014:

The unsettled theme looks set to continue through the end of next week and into the following week. Whilst this means showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. Showery rain and occasional gales are most likely in the north and west, with drier, brighter weather in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures at this time are likely to be fairly typical in southern parts, and rather cold in the north at first. Later in the period we may see a slightly higher occurrence of colder interludes between spells of rain leading to an increased risk of frost and icy patches compared to recent weeks.

Updated: 1209 on Sat 4 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Jan 2014 to Sunday 2 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1134 on Sat 4 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Jan 2014 to Monday 3 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1219 on Sun 5 Jan 2014

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. 

 

interesting that the above has been excluded from their summary since 2 January.

The phrase latterly has been 'wintry types'.

Edited January 5, 2014 by johnholmes

[Bristawl Si]

This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. 

 

interesting that the above has been excluded from their summary since 2 January.

The phrase latterly has been 'wintry types'.

What doesn it mean though? Guess their Comms guy has decided to play around with the spin.

[johnholmes]

What doesn it mean though? Guess their Comms guy has decided to play around with the spin.

 

not spin, there will be a meteorological reason, but I don't know what it is. Maybe Ian F could supply the reason behind the change of words. Scientists don't deal in spin, and that includes professional meteorologists, regardless of what some on here seem to think. At least not unless their training has changed since my day as a professional forecaster.

[Bristawl Si]

not spin, there will be a meteorological reason, but I don't know what it is. Maybe Ian F could supply the reason behind the change of words. Scientists don't deal in spin, and that includes professional meteorologists, regardless of what some on here seem to think. At least not unless their training has changed since my day as a professional forecaster.

i suspect the Meto, as with any other large co. these days, will have a Comms person, who will be given the relevant info and then asked to write the comms.

[johnholmes]

unlikely, it will be written by one of the forecasters on duty in the Ops centre. That type of thing does happen under the guidance of the TV duty forecaster for some of the other outputs and may be partly the reason why the BBC outputs on the web seem somewhat different from the BBC forecast output seen on BBC 1 or 24 hour news.