Meto Uk Further Outlook

[AWD]

Fair play, at least they are honest.

Basically, who knows!!

[Methuselah]

At least it's not likely to be down to repeated incursion of deep cold air...

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Jun 2013 to Sunday 16 Jun 2013:

There will still be a good deal of fine, dry and warm weather on Friday and into the weekend, although some coastal areas will be cooler at times with sea breezes. However, the weather will probably become more unsettled through the course of the weekend, with the risk of some heavy rain affecting southern areas and perhaps also some northwestern areas. The following week may continue to become increasingly unsettled, cooler and breezier with time, with the possibility of some strong winds in the northwest. Most of the rain will probably affect the northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter conditions to the east. However, there is currently a lot of uncertainty with the detail of where the rain is most likely to be, and also with temperatures.

Updated: 1218 on Sun 2 Jun 2013

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

 

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Jun 2013 to Monday 1 Jul 2013:

There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

Updated: 1218 on Sun 2 Jun 2013

 

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[phil nw.]

Seems a fair summary for the following week with split energy from the approaching Atlantic trough.Signs yesterday that the main thrust of troughing would head SE now more balanced.

[049balt]

The latest monthly outlook from the Met. is the usual "we don't have a clue, just look out the window " type of stuff.

 

 

Edited June 3, 2013 by 049balt

[NeilN]

Didnt they say this week was supposed to be poor yet its warm all week?

I dont really follow that Monthly Outlook to seriously. Always wrong.

[Summer Sun]

Didnt they say this week was supposed to be poor yet its warm all week?I dont really follow that Monthly Outlook to seriously. Always wrong.

 

Last Monday they issued this in the update

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Jun 2013 to Monday 10 Jun 2013:

 

A northwest, southeast split is set to develop through the weekend, with many northern and western parts of the UK likely to become predominantly dry, although the chance of a few showers, mainly in the far northwest. Meanwhile, the southeast will remain rather more unsettled with occasional spells of rain or showers, and some persistent and locally heavy rain possible at times, especially towards the far east and southeast. Little change into the start of next week, but then a gradual trend for more unsettled conditions to become established across the UK as the week progresses. Temperatures will be near average across much of the UK, but cool in the east and southeast, whilst becoming rather warm in the drier, sunnier northwest.

 

Updated: 1145 on Mon 27 May 2013

 

TBF forecasting isn't easy and things can and do change at short range even with the best tools on the market the weather will still do what it wants

Edited June 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[captaincroc]

The latest monthly outlook from the Met. is the usual "we don't have a clue, just look out the window " type of stuff.

 

 

 

I am a big supporter of the Met O as they have a VERY tough job to do, everything is with all the pressure for the public/media on top.  But I really question the need for the monthly outlook, it  really is kinda pointless in every way.  Yes, the odd time it may be right, but we hardly knew what was going to happen next week (Showers/no showers etc) let alone a month.  Plus they are so vague, again defies the point of having them. They are just opening themselves up for Joe Public reading it and saying, "Well they got it wrong again!" as soon as the forecast is amended. As most wont take into account that it is a general forecast so to speak.

[AWD]

It's pretty simple really. They issue a forecast that is probable based on the current data and models available to them at the time.

If these said models change and said data changed or alters to show a different weather pattern then they amend their forecasts to do so.

No one has a crystal ball, the weather does what it wants and every now and again it changes it's mind to what it wants to do.

The Met Office do the best they can in their medium and long range outputs but things change so their forecasts change. Whether they should issue a monthly forecast or not etc is something only they can answer but my understanding is that they are contractually obliged to do so by their clients and the government so they don't really have a choice.

[Frosty.]

Didnt they say this week was supposed to be poor yet its warm all week?

I dont really follow that Monthly Outlook to seriously. Always wrong.

prepare yourself for the full fury of John Holmes

[Summer Sun]

The met office are now expecting this summery weather to last into next week however some heavy showers could develop in places

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Jun 2013 to Monday 17 Jun 2013:

 

Staying largely fine, dry and warm through the weekend, although it will be cooler at times around coasts with sea breezes likely. There is a risk of some heavy showers developing, especially in central and western parts, as well as a chance of some more persistent rain in the northwest. There is likely to still be a fair amount of dry weather around to start next week however it could turn more unsettled from mid-week. Persistent rain is expected from the west whilst southern parts are most at risk of seeing heavy showers. Becoming rather breezy, with a risk of strong winds affecting northwestern areas. Further rain or showers are likely towards the following weekend, with the south and east seeing the best of any drier and warmer weather.

 

It "could" turn more unsettled from mid-week note the word "could" all is going to depend on where the high places its self and whether it can send the lows north and west of the UK or not

Edited June 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Buzzit]

It's pretty simple really. They issue a forecast that is probable based on the current data and models available to them at the time.If these said models change and said data changed or alters to show a different weather pattern then they amend their forecasts to do so.No one has a crystal ball, the weather does what it wants and every now and again it changes it's mind to what it wants to do.The Met Office do the best they can in their medium and long range outputs but things change so their forecasts change. Whether they should issue a monthly forecast or not etc is something only they can answer but my understanding is that they are contractually obliged to do so by their clients and the government so they don't really have a choice.

If you actually review the met Office 'services' available for purchase almost none of them have anything to do with forecasting past 10 days at the most. This particular long range forecast is just a throw away product and should be treated as such as it has no bearing on reality and awful accuracy - people need to give up assigning meaning to this output. (Especially as we have no information given to us to understand the probability of x occurring in relation to the forecast given as the data is withheld from us)

Edited June 3, 2013 by Buzzit

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Jun 2013 to Monday 17 Jun 2013:

 

Staying largely fine, dry and warm through the weekend, although it will be cooler at times around coasts with sea breezes likely. There is a risk of some heavy showers developing, especially in central and western parts, as well as a chance of some more persistent rain in the northwest. There is likely to still be a fair amount of dry weather around to start next week however it could turn more unsettled from mid-week. Persistent rain is expected from the west whilst southern parts are most at risk of seeing heavy showers. Becoming rather breezy, with a risk of strong winds affecting northwestern areas. Further rain or showers are likely towards the following weekend, with the south and east seeing the best of any drier and warmer weather.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast

[AWD]

A good reflection of this mornings model output i think.

Edited June 3, 2013 by AWD

[Downpour]

Didnt they say this week was supposed to be poor yet its warm all week?I dont really follow that Monthly Outlook to seriously. Always wrong.

Interesting debate on this on the "other" forum. You are right and, more's to the point, it has now got three weekends in a row entirely wrong, which means you'd be better off guessing the weather via some sort of pin-the-trough-on-the-map party game than consulting it.

 

It's become a cannon-fodder product from the Office, and rightly so. I don't bear any grudge with the Office per se – all long-range forecasting is little (if any) better than sheer guesswork, but it this product really has had a rough ride of late. The main problem is that people continue to apportion a great deal of authority to it, presumably because the Office are an official government body. That's understandable – it's human nature – but the experience of the last month or so should finally prove that, at 30-day-range, they haven't got any more of clue than the rest of us. 

[Tamara]

Interesting debate on this on the "other" forum. You are right and, more's to the point, it has now got three weekends in a row entirely wrong, which means you'd be better off guessing the weather via some sort of pin-the-trough-on-the-map party game than consulting it.

 

It's become a cannon-fodder product from the Office, and rightly so. I don't bear any grudge with the Office per se – all long-range forecasting is little (if any) better than sheer guesswork, but it this product really has had a rough ride of late. The main problem is that people continue to apportion a great deal of authority to it, presumably because the Office are an official government body. That's understandable – it's human nature – but the experience of the last month or so should finally prove that, at 30-day-range, they haven't got any more of clue than the rest of us. 

Without disrespect to the vast majority of people who post on here, which obviously includes myself, then I think that they have a much better (professional) idea of a further outlook period. Its easy to sit at home and post forecasts in optimism for a favoured weather type because sooner or later that will come true. Equally it is easy to hindcast when there is apparent model and ensemble consensus for a certain outcome and this is thus in accordance with the met Office view - yet the atmospheric patterns make mugs of that and change at shorter notice afterwards.

 

There was consistent indication of a pressure drop from the south by this weekend, leading to something of a breakdown thereafter which would quite probably have involved low pressure systems following from the North West afterwards to make things more changeable once more anyway.

 

What has changed is simply that the breakdown from the south has receded with the thundery low over Iberia and southern France thankfully not coming as far northwards, and this in turn prolongs and renews the anticyclonic ridging so we get fine weather for most pleasingly through the weekend and first part of next week at least, before the indicated change to more changeable weather from the west.

 

The basis of a settled spell followed by a return to more changeable conditions (probably) has not changed at all. What has happened, fortunately, is that we are seeing the settled spell extended longer than seemed to be the case. So its a positive development anyway

Edited June 3, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Carlrg]

But their forecasts are based on their expertise, professionalism, million pound supercomputers and terrabytes of data, surely they must be able get a little closer to the mark.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Carlrg

[Frosty.]

Without disrespect to the vast majority of people who post on here, which obviously includes myself, then I think that they have a much better (professional) idea of a further outlook period. Its easy to sit at home and post forecasts in optimism for a favoured weather type because sooner or later that will come true. Equally it is easy to hindcast when there is apparent model and ensemble consensus for a certain outcome and this is thus in accordance with the met Office view - yet the atmospheric patterns make mugs of that and change at shorter notice afterwards.

 

There was consistent indication of a pressure drop from the south by this weekend, leading to something of a breakdown thereafter which would quite probably have involved low pressure systems following from the North West afterwards to make things more changeable once more anyway.

 

What has changed is simply that the breakdown from the south has receded with the thundery low over Iberia and southern France thankfully not coming as far northwards, and this in turn prolongs and renews the anticyclonic ridging so we get fine weather for most pleasingly through the weekend and first part of next week at least, before the indicated change to more changeable weather from the west.

 

The basis of a settled spell followed by a return to more changeable conditions (probably) has not changed at all. What has happened, fortunately, is that we are seeing the settled spell extended longer than seemed to be the case. So its a positive development anyway

Spot on Tamara, we have nothing to lose with our attempts at forecasting what the models are showing but the met office have a huge responsibility and always do the absolute best they can to keep the general public updated with the best forecasts possibly available.

[Methuselah]

But their forecasts are based on their expertise, professionalism, million pound supercomputers and terrabytes of data, surely they must be able get a little closer to the mark.

Well they still get closer, most of the time, than just about anyone else...Despite the claims of some.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Jun 2013 to Monday 1 Jul 2013:

 

There are currently indications that conditions may be rather changeable through the rest of June and into July. Temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is partly as a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Buzzit]

Without disrespect to the vast majority of people who post on here, which obviously includes myself, then I think that they have a much better (professional) idea of a further outlook period.

That is probably true but the long range 30 day outlook seems to be no more than a composite of the Mets long range ensemble suite with pattern matching via probabilistic outcomes. In other words my understanding on the 30 day outlook is that anyone trained in the process could do it, and it is only as good as the ensemble output itself is. Which is again why I hold no stock in the output. It was not too many years ago that the Met stated that a monthly outlook was useful as it updated every day people would forget when it was wrong. (unless they are weather freaks )

[Methuselah]

That is probably true but the long range 30 day outlook seems to be no more than a composite of the Mets long range ensemble suite with pattern matching via probabilistic outcomes. In other words my understanding on the 30 day outlook is that anyone trained in the process could do it, and it is only as good as the ensemble output itself is. Which is again why I hold no stock in the output. It was not too many years ago that the Met stated that a monthly outlook was useful as it updated every day people would forget when it was wrong. (unless they are weather freaks )

So what do you suggest they do then - guess?

[Buzzit]

So what do you suggest they do then - guess?

 

Nothing like turning the wheel in a full circle - take the horse back to the trough....

30 day forecast is based on ensemble output from the Met forecasting systems

We cannot forecast with any certainty at the 30 day range

Why bother expecting said outlook to materalise or get upset at the Met outlook

My case has always being why bother or get upset with it.

But I also dislike the idea being made that somehow some amazing human insight is added into the 30 day outlook when it certainly is not.

[johnholmes]

prepare yourself for the full fury of John Holmes:help:

I gave up trying to explain things some time ago. Having a dig at a quasi government set up, met or any other is something most folk do at one time or another, so let the fun carry on.The only comment to the theme is that they are trained in meteoroliogy as well as model interpretation something that no one on here is. Pretty much the whole of the senior forecast watch will have a first in Maths and or Physics and similar in Meteorology. Its a bit like telling a brain specialist that you know best but as I say let the fun proceed. Edited June 3, 2013 by johnholmes