Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Polar Maritime]

I think JH probably highlights his many years of working for/and professional input with the met office as they are few and far between, so for newbies and the thousands that read these forums it means his comment does not get brushed under the carpet. And can be taken seriously.

But at the same time it's good to have a laugh and a joke.

[johnholmes]

Seems to go against the ECM 32 dayer which is strange. No mention of the 'S' whord at all now ?! Let see if they flip back to cold tommorow?

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 7 Mar 2012:

This period looks to be dominated by changeable, often unsettled weather, primarily moving in from the west. This means a risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times, and by the end of the period, rainfall totals, especially across southern areas, could be above average. Temperatures look to achieve around average values, but being late February/early March, there is still a risk of overnight frost, especially through any quieter, drier or clearer interludes. Near normal sunshine amounts are expected.

Updated: 1211 on Tue 7 Feb 2012

Printable view days 1 to 30

do you see the ECMWF Tim?

I thought it was only for paying customers and had some sort of copyright on it?

[johnholmes]

do you see the ECMWF Tim?

I thought it was only for paying customers and had some sort of copyright on it?

I had until recently tried not to comment on their outputs, 6-15 or 16-30 day but seeing as they, in my view, take some unfair stick, I try to give a viewpoint from another perspective.

To me looking at what little input we see compared to what they have, the change suggested for later February into March seems a sensible resume of what is available.

My only clue as to what the start of March may hold is the 30mb temperature. Like I've posted I have very little actual events to back this up but I suspect that the blocking is going to ease away throug this month which could be why they indicate a more unsettled theme developing and less cold than currently.

The fact that the 500mb anomaly charts are becoming less consistent also lends support to not backing the blocking and cold holding on beyond the next week or so.

Its a funny old world is meteorology and it may well prove this post as quite laughable in 7-10 days time. If so I'll be there to hold my hand up as always to say-ok got it wrong. Would that more on here did the same.

Edited February 7, 2012 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

To add to whats already been said, IF, and this is a big IF, this mornings output suggesting a chance of blocking over Greenland is to be believed, the transition occurs at around day 7, so if anything it is the 6-15 dayer that should be suggesting below or well below average temps with sleet or snow showers possible around Northern coastal areas and to be fair, it does mention wintry showers so toppler maybe suggested???, however, we will need to see the 12z and 0z output continue along the same lines before we see any written update upgrade. The ECM 32 dayer suggests HP west or SOUTH WEST of UK in the second half of its output so could well imply a steady return to Zonal conditions at in the 16-30 day range.

[johnholmes]

To add to whats already been said, IF, and this is a big IF, this mornings output suggesting a chance of blocking over Greenland is to be believed, the transition occurs at around day 7, so if anything it is the 6-15 dayer that should be suggesting below or well below average temps with sleet or snow showers possible around Northern coastal areas and to be fair, it does mention wintry showers so toppler maybe suggested???, however, we will need to see the 12z and 0z output continue along the same lines before we see any written update upgrade. The ECM 32 dayer suggests HP west or SOUTH WEST of UK in the second half of its output so could well imply a steady return to Zonal conditions at in the 16-30 day range.

another mention of what the ECMWF 32 day output shows-where do we find this please?

[phil nw.]

It seems that the MO see the following week as cool zonality further north and higher pressure further south with perhaps some transient polar incursions later.

They are not favouring any holding block up north with any prolonged cold, based on this thats for sure.

Interesting as it appears somewhat different to what some of us were expecting.

[feb1991blizzard]

another mention of what the ECMWF 32 day output shows-where do we find this please?

Those were Matt Hugo's words earlier and everytime he has given us a sneak preview so far this winter, the Met office's 30 dayer has been worded accordingly, so although i havent actually seen the charts myself, i have no reason to disbelieve it.

[johnholmes]

Those were Matt Hugo's words earlier and everytime he has given us a sneak preview so far this winter, the Met office's 30 dayer has been worded accordingly, so although i havent actually seen the charts myself, i have no reason to disbelieve it.

ok tks

[syed2878]

I would haf to say guys the met so far called this winter rite and at the moment though it's a bitter pill to take, i would go along with their forecast. John h's comments and information i must say is valuble.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 22 Feb 2012:

A cloudy, murky but less cold start, with some stubborn fog patches as well as outbreaks of rain. However, brighter but windier conditions look set to become quickly established across the UK, with blustery wintry showers, particularly across northern and eastern areas. Towards the end of the week southern and more especially, southwestern areas look set to be fairly settled and largely dry, with wetter and more unsettled weather largely affecting the north of the UK. As February progresses these more unsettled conditions look likely to become dominant across the UK, with the risk of some very windy days. However, it could take some time for the far south to turn more unsettled, the best of any drier conditions here, but also a higher risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1144 on Wed 8 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Cloud 10]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 22 Feb 2012:

A cloudy, murky but less cold start, with some stubborn fog patches as well as outbreaks of rain. However, brighter but windier conditions look set to become quickly established across the UK, with blustery wintry showers, particularly across northern and eastern areas. Towards the end of the week southern and more especially, southwestern areas look set to be fairly settled and largely dry, with wetter and more unsettled weather largely affecting the north of the UK. As February progresses these more unsettled conditions look likely to become dominant across the UK, with the risk of some very windy days. However, it could take some time for the far south to turn more unsettled, the best of any drier conditions here, but also a higher risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1144 on Wed 8 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Nice to see the suggestion of a northerly,although it does sound like a rather brief affair.

[UV-RAY]

Confirmation than this dreadful winter will soon be over for all.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

Northerly winds on Tuesday mean a continuation of the recent cold weather is likely. Southern and western parts of the UK are likely to be mostly dry with some sunny spells, whilst showers are likely elsewhere. The showers are likely to turn increasingly wintry in eastern counties by early on Wednesday, with snow possible to low levels. During the second half of next week, southern parts should stay largely dry, whilst northern parts will probably be unsettled, with periods of cloudy weather and spells of rain, and snow on high ground. These more unsettled conditions will gradually spread to affect most parts during the following week, although may take some time to reach the far south. Temperatures will become generally close to average, but with a chance of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1226 on Thu 9 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited February 9, 2012 by Gavin D

[Don]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:

Northerly winds on Tuesday mean a continuation of the recent cold weather is likely. Southern and western parts of the UK are likely to be mostly dry with some sunny spells, whilst showers are likely elsewhere. The showers are likely to turn increasingly wintry in eastern counties by early on Wednesday, with snow possible to low levels. During the second half of next week, southern parts should stay largely dry, whilst northern parts will probably be unsettled, with periods of cloudy weather and spells of rain, and snow on high ground. These more unsettled conditions will gradually spread to affect most parts during the following week, although may take some time to reach the far south. Temperatures will become generally close to average, but with a chance of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1226 on Thu 9 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

An upgrade on yesterday's forecast regards to next week's northerly. However it still looks like they expect it to be a brief affair with little in the way of snow for the south. Fingers crossed for this evening!

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012:

Wintry showers are likely over some northern and eastern parts of the UK on Wednesday, with outbreaks of rain and drizzle more likely elsewhere. It will probably remain unsettled during the second half of next week and northern parts of the UK will probably see periods of rain, with snow possible on high ground, perhaps to low levels at times in the north and east. The south and west will remain drier and brighter, although with rain possible at times. Many areas should see temperatures around normal for a time next week, but it is likely to become colder than average by the following week. With the weather likely to remain unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain are likely across the UK, with further sleet and snow in places.

Updated: 1231 on Fri 10 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

A general upgrade today from the Met Office for both their 6-15 and 16 to 30 day forecasts which is nice to see. If next week's northerly does end up being a damp squib, the following week looks like it could be better as illustrated in the forecast and also in the model output. Lets hope it holds!

Edited February 10, 2012 by Don

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Feb 2012 to Saturday 25 Feb 2012:

Apart from the odd shower, much of the UK will be dry on Thursday with temperatures near normal. A weakening band of rain though will move southeastwards across the country on Friday with colder and windier conditions following on behind. Next weekend is likely to remain rather unsettled, cold and windy with spells of rain or showers and the risk of nighttime frosts. Some sleet and snow is likely over the hills and perhaps to lower levels at times in the north and east, with the best of any drier and brighter spells likely in the south and southwest. The unsettled and rather cold conditions are then likely to continue throughout the rest of the forecast period with further spells of rain and perhaps sleet and snow.

Updated: 1150 on Sat 11 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Feb 2012 to Sunday 26 Feb 2012:

A weakening band of rain will move southeastwards across the country on Friday with colder and windier conditions following on behind, with gales possible. Next weekend is likely to remain rather unsettled, with spells of rain or showers and the risk of nighttime frosts. Some sleet and snow is likely over the hills and perhaps to lower levels at times in the north, with the best of any drier and brighter intervals likely in the south. This changeable, and at times rather cold and unsettled weather, is then likely to continue throughout the rest of this forecast period, with further spells of rain and perhaps some sleet and snow, particularly in the north. An ongoing risk of overnight frost, especially during any quieter interludes.

Updated: 1123 on Sun 12 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Feb 2012 to Monday 27 Feb 2012:

This weekend is likely to remain rather unsettled, with rain or showers and brisk winds affecting many areas, and with showers wintry in the north and perhaps east, especially on Sunday. A brief ridge of high pressure is expected to move across the UK on Monday, bringing a sunnier day, but the risk of a widespread frost overnight. Changeable, and at times very unsettled weather, is likely to continue throughout the rest of this forecast period, with further spells of rain interspersed with clearer and colder conditions, with a snow risk for northern and western high ground. Temperatures on the whole look to maintain around average values, but there will be an ongoing risk of overnight frost, especially during any quieter interludes.

Updated: 1156 on Mon 13 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited February 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 28 Feb 2012:

Much of the UK will be dry and cold at the start of the period, with some sunny intervals. Scattered snow showers are expected across Scotland though, with gales in exposure. Rain is expected to spread form the west later on Monday (20th) turning to snow as it hits the cold air over the UK, giving some temporary accumulations. The rest of the period then shows signs of turning generally more unsettled and windy, especially in the northwest of the country, with bands of rain interspersed with cooler, more showery weather. The south and southeast look to be driest but there will be some rain here at times. Temperatures should recover to nearer normal but overnight frosts cannot be ruled out during clearer periods of weather.

Updated: 1200 on Tue 14 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited February 14, 2012 by Gavin D

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks on the face of it that they have amended the forecast again in mid afternoon but checking it off against the version amended at noon posted above by Gavin D there is no difference. Strange.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Feb 2012 to Thursday 1 Mar 2012:

Wet, windy but rather mild to start. Rain heaviest in the west, especially on hills, while eastern areas will generally have less rain. During Wednesday brighter, cooler, and more showery weather will spread southeastwards, with some snow on high ground in the north, and gales or severe gales in northwestern areas. Staying unsettled later in the week, with occasional bands of rain, heaviest in the west, interspersed with some cooler more showery periods. Occasionally some hill snow over northern hills. Temperatures generally around normal or even mild at times but still some risk of nighttime frosts. Continuing changeable through the weekend and following week, with cloudier and wetter periods punctuated by clearer and cooler spells. The southeast is likely to be more settled. Temperatures around normal with occasional frosts.

Updated: 1150 on Thu 16 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2012 to Friday 2 Mar 2012:

Cloudy and mild with spells of rain and drizzle at first, most persistent in western areas, and drier in the south and east. Windy for most, with gales or severe gales in northwestern areas. Staying unsettled later in the week, with occasional bands of rain, heaviest in the west, interspersed with cooler more showery periods. Occasionally there may be some hill snow in the north. Temperatures mild, locally very mild. The weekend and much of the following week will be changeable, with cloudier, milder, and wetter periods punctuated by clearer and cooler spells, with the southeast likely to be more settled. Temperatures mostly around or above normal, but there is a small probability of a colder spell with and an increased risk of snow.

Updated: 1136 on Fri 17 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Feb 2012 to Saturday 3 Mar 2012:

Cloudy with occasional rain in the north and west Thursday, with drier brighter conditions prevalent across the south and east, allowing it to become very mild here. Rain spreading southeast across the UK through Friday followed by brighter conditions with some showers in the north and west. Generally windy across the UK through this period, with gales at times across the northwest and temperatures returning nearer to normal by Saturday. The rest of the weekend and much of the following week will be changeable, with cloudier, milder, and wetter periods punctuated by clearer and colder spells, with the southeast likely to be more settled at times. Temperatures mostly around or above normal, but there is an increasing probability of colder spells with wintry showers mainly in the north.

Updated: 1216 on Sat 18 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Feb 2012 to Sunday 4 Mar 2012:

The start of the period will see a transition from the initially very mild, but largely cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain, to a brighter but colder regime with a chance of showers across northern and western parts by Saturday. However, it is likely to remain windy across most parts, with a risk of gales across northern and western areas. The rest of the first weekend and much of the following week is likely to be rather changeable, with cloudier, milder, and wetter periods punctuated by clearer and colder spells with a chance of showers and heightened risk of overnight frosts. Southeastern areas are likely to see the best of any drier and more settled conditions.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 19 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html